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Will the "Red wave" sweep over IL in November, and will it be enough to kill the FOID card?


vito
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The expectation is that the Republicans will do very well come November, possibly well enough to take control of the House and possibly the Senate in Washington. But will it manifest itself here in IL, i.e. will Republicans possibly achieve a majority in the state legislature? If that should happen, might there be a chance of elminating the FOID requirement?  Maybe I'm just dreaming. 

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All the gerrymandering has killed any reasonable chance of that, even should those of the low-information persuasion (the vast majority of IllAnnoys voters) wake the fork up.  I live in the SW Burbs, yet "my" state rep and senator are on the SE side of freaking Chicago (as in the area of 79th & Stoney Island!!!)  -- along with the bulk of the districts' population.  There is literally something like a 50 or 60 foot corridor linking that part of the city to half of my town and an adjacent town.  I guess that makes me a member of "the community."  They made sure to dilute as much potential Republican support as possible.

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On 4/24/2022 at 4:06 PM, 2A4Cook said:

All the gerrymandering has killed any reasonable chance of that, even should those of the low-information persuasion (the vast majority of IllAnnoys voters) wake the fork up.  I live in the SW Burbs, yet "my" state rep and senator are on the SE side of freaking Chicago (as in the area of 79th & Stoney Island!!!)  -- along with the bulk of the districts' population.  There is literally something like a 50 or 60 foot corridor linking that part of the city to half of my town and an adjacent town.  I guess that makes me a member of "the community."  They made sure to dilute as much potential Republican support as possible.

I have to agree .. sadly.  
With the last two remaps drawn entirely by the Madigan Machine illinois has zero chance of ever electing a legislature representative of the taxpayers.  
 

My prediction is that veto proof majority will only get stronger. 
 

Illinois is a lost cause.

 

BTW I just signed up with Missouricarry.com 

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On 4/24/2022 at 4:06 PM, 2A4Cook said:

All the gerrymandering has killed any reasonable chance of that, even should those of the low-information persuasion (the vast majority of IllAnnoys voters) wake the fork up.  I live in the SW Burbs, yet "my" state rep and senator are on the SE side of freaking Chicago (as in the area of 79th & Stoney Island!!!)  -- along with the bulk of the districts' population.  There is literally something like a 50 or 60 foot corridor linking that part of the city to half of my town and an adjacent town.  I guess that makes me a member of "the community."  They made sure to dilute as much potential Republican support as possible.

I am in Oak Lawn and my state senator & state rep have a huge majority of their district in the southeast side of Chicago, one of them going all the way out to Indian Head Park. If every single person in the suburbs voted Republican, each incumbent would still win by sizeable margins. With Oak Lawn being a 60-40 community voting Democratic, completely my opinion, that would seal the deal for each incumbent...

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Red wave?

 

Yeah, right - just how many uncontested districts are you aware of?

 

We need an honest remap, not those gerrymandered atrocities.

Edited by markthesignguy
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On 4/24/2022 at 8:57 PM, Smallbore said:

A voter districts map over layering counties will show the true results of gerrymandering. 

There are 59 Illinois senate districts, per the Illinois constitution, and 102 counties. It is not like the U.S. Congress in which each state in the Senate has the same number of votes. Nothing says that county lines have to be considered when district boundaries are set. 

 

SECTION 1. LEGISLATURE - POWER AND STRUCTURE
    The legislative power is vested in a General Assembly consisting of a Senate and a House of Representatives, elected by the electors from 59 Legislative Districts and 118 Representative Districts.
(Source: Amendment adopted at general election November 4,
1980.) 

 

Even the original Illinois Constitution had a similar set. District did not equal county. 

Illinois Constitution of 1818 - Wikisource, the free online library

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On 4/25/2022 at 9:34 PM, Quiet Observer said:

There are 59 Illinois senate districts, per the Illinois constitution, and 102 counties. It is not like the U.S. Congress in which each state in the Senate has the same number of votes. Nothing says that county lines have to be considered when district boundaries are set. 

 

SECTION 1. LEGISLATURE - POWER AND STRUCTURE
    The legislative power is vested in a General Assembly consisting of a Senate and a House of Representatives, elected by the electors from 59 Legislative Districts and 118 Representative Districts.
(Source: Amendment adopted at general election November 4,
1980.) 

 

Even the original Illinois Constitution had a similar set. District did not equal county. 

Illinois Constitution of 1818 - Wikisource, the free online library

I live two counties south of Cook but my federal rep's district has a finger that runs up to the lake front. That is classic gerrymandering. I have no representation in D.C.

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On 4/26/2022 at 8:35 AM, Smallbore said:

I live two counties south of Cook but my federal rep's district has a finger that runs up to the lake front. That is classic gerrymandering. I have no representation in D.C.

 

You have the same representation in Washington as some liberal Democrat from a downstate conservative Republican district. Your representative will vote contrary to your wishes on most legislation, and their rep. will vote contrary to that voter's wishes. That is the nature of a republic. It would be the same with or without gerrymandering. The OP was about the Illinois legislature and FOID, but the principle of republican government is the same.

 

The numerical populations of all districts are close to equal. If the population of the state was equally distributed, districting could be done using a grid. The overwhelming concentration of population in Chicago makes that impossible. 

 

There is no single will of the people to guide a legislator's to vote. Only a small number of the electorate will correspond to them about an issue. We get mostly pro-2A  opinions here and complain that legislators do not respond to the will of the people. On some anti-gun site they hear mostly the opposite viewpoint and think that is the will of the people. Throw in other issues like border security, abortion, LGBT, environment, etc., the "will of the people" gets even more complicated. 

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On 4/26/2022 at 10:52 AM, Quiet Observer said:

 

You have the same representation in Washington as some liberal Democrat from a downstate conservative Republican district. Your representative will vote contrary to your wishes on most legislation, and their rep. will vote contrary to that voter's wishes. That is the nature of a republic. It would be the same with or without gerrymandering. The OP was about the Illinois legislature and FOID, but the principle of republican government is the same.

 

The numerical populations of all districts are close to equal. If the population of the state was equally distributed, districting could be done using a grid. The overwhelming concentration of population in Chicago makes that impossible. 

 

There is no single will of the people to guide a legislator's to vote. Only a small number of the electorate will correspond to them about an issue. We get mostly pro-2A  opinions here and complain that legislators do not respond to the will of the people. On some anti-gun site they hear mostly the opposite viewpoint and think that is the will of the people. Throw in other issues like border security, abortion, LGBT, environment, etc., the "will of the people" gets even more complicated. 

I think you are missing his point, that being that his community is being deprived of true democratic representation (dilutiing their voting power) by linking them to a community with which his has absolutely contrary inter ests, but the majority of the district, meaning, gerrymandering.

 

At least 70% of both my state senate and state rep districts are located very far away, on the southeast side of Chicago, linked to my town by a single-street corridor.  My middle class suburban town has NOTHING in common with that area and, in fact, we don't want to pay taxes to the state to be used in Chicago areas that pay very little by comparison.  Meaning, they have linked us to a distant area with conflicting interests, but we have no chance of ever having a candidate win office because the southeast side of Chicago has a monolithic voting block that only votes one way.  Thus, we have no representation in State government.  Your example is far different, being a reasonably-drawn district where one just happens to be in the political minority.  HUGE difference.

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Democratic representation is a fallacy. Unless everyone in a group agrees on every issue and the legislator is bound to vote that way, someone is not going to get their way. If we went to true democracy, everyone votes directly on every issue, Chicago/Cook would still dominate. Also, under the republican it would probably possible more districts to sections of blocks in Chicago and have less districts downstate, each would contain even more counties than now. Districting is based on population, not geography.

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On 4/26/2022 at 11:36 AM, Quiet Observer said:

Democratic representation is a fallacy. Unless everyone in a group agrees on every issue and the legislator is bound to vote that way, someone is not going to get their way. If we went to true democracy, everyone votes directly on every issue, Chicago/Cook would still dominate. Also, under the republican it would probably possible more districts to sections of blocks in Chicago and have less districts downstate, each would contain even more counties than now. Districting is based on population, not geography.

Ancient Athens was a looooong time ago, and there's a difference between dominating and monopolizing.  I know it's been around 30 years or so, but it did happen once, when Lee Daniels replaced the Emperor of Illinois for a scant two years.

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Move way south in the state, or even to another state. The candidates that you vote for the legislative bodies may not win the election or your choice may win and then vote on bills differently than you prefer. You will still claim that you are not represented. Leftists who live in conservative districts or states make the same claim. 

 

Come up with a perfect system and persuade the whole country to change to it. The U.S. and state constitutions give you the right to vote. They do not guarantee your happiness with the final results. 

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