CCL Totals - Nonresident and Resident - Nov 2015

[kwc]

The first table below captures the current cumulative totals of Illinois Concealed Carry Licenses (CCLs) issued to nonresidents and residents since the program began, obtained via Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request.

The second table provides a trend analysis based on prior FOIA requests. I didn't start requesting resident totals until Dec 2014, hence the gaps in the data set.

Last month's totals are presented here.

Some brief observations:

* No new nonresident licenses have been issued since Sep 30

* 3946 new CCLs were issued between Sep 30 and Nov 10. Grand total # CCLs issued (resident + nonresident) is now 137,675.

* The backlog of CCLs awaiting CCLRB review continues to climb (from 1543 on Sep 30 to 1582 as of Nov 10).
* Another 24 licenses have been revoked since the Sep 30 report. [Note that ISP classifies revocations differently than cancellations, with the former driven by such things as legal problems and mental illnesses and the latter a result of moves out of state, deaths, voluntary submissions, etc.]

 

Based on an earlier request from a fellow IC member, this time I also asked this question: "Of the total number of licenses that have been revoked, how many had been elevated for review and subsequently approved by the CCLRB during the application process?" As of Nov 10, 310 total licenses had been revoked since the CCL program began. According to the ISP's response, of those 310 revocations, 28 had been originally elevated to the CCLRB during the application process and were ultimately approved by the review board... but were subsequently revoked after issue. [side note: Responding to this data point delayed the FOIA response by another week, so I won't include it on a regular basis in the future.]

 

IMHO, looks like we're on track to hit around 142K total CCLs issued by the end of this year. Actual # current license holders as of 1 Jan 2016 will be lower due to revocations & cancellations.

 

 

 

[ChicagoRonin70]

@ kwc

 

Hah! You took a lot of my usual analysis points! I'll still add a few notes.

 

From last month, we were at 273 days into this year, so now in the first 314 days now there have been 45,922 new licenses since January 1 (including the 19 non-resident licenses). That's only averaging around 146.25 new licenses per day, which is another drop from the around 154 daily we had through last update. That puts it on course for around 53,380 new ones for this year, so with the 91,753 issued in 2014, that is still around 145,134 total licenses issued projected estimated.

 

Therein lies the operative word, "estimated" because as you wrote, there are some revocations, so that will knock a few hundred off the total (let's hope less than 400 take-backs by year's end), and the downward trend of slowing license numbers being issued is definitely continuing. It would really suck if it nose dived by a couple thousand more to end up around 142K licenses, because that would mean barely 50,000 new ones this year being issued. That's close to a 45 percent drop in new licenses issued from 2014 to 2015.

 

It seems that we would be even more rapidly approaching the plateau than expected, and even a lower one than research has projected.

 

I wonder how much that has to do with some of the anti-gun actions, such as the taxation BS from Cook County, being dissuasive for people trying get armed and be able to sustain that financially. I also wonder if people like Toni Preckwinkle and the Sheriff of Dartingham are looking at the CCL numbers and brainstorming ways to try to discourage as many people as possible from wanting to buy and use a firearm, period. I'd say there's a pretty good chance of that, actually.

 

B@stards.

[Hap]

For more complicated queries, can you just file those as a separate FOIA request so they don't delay the basic stats?

[kwc]

For more complicated queries, can you just file those as a separate FOIA request so they don't delay the basic stats?

 

I'll plan to do that next round. Thanks for the recommendation.

[GTX63]

I wonder how much that has to do with some of the anti-gun actions, such as the taxation BS from Cook County, being dissuasive for people trying get armed and be able to sustain that financially. I also wonder if people like Toni Preckwinkle and the Sheriff of Dartingham are looking at the CCL numbers and brainstorming ways to try to discourage as many people as possible from wanting to buy and use a firearm, period. I'd say there's a pretty good chance of that, actually.

 

B@stards.

 

Ronin, the quick and simplest answer to why is money/cost, which is an anti gun action in itself. I know from speaking to friends, neighbors and family.

It $500 before a guy or gal even buys a gun, ammo and any range time or additional training.

 

Compared to the average take during a mugging, one could say that it was cheaper to be held up 5 or ten times and lose their pocket money than pay the same amount to the state and then wait 5 months for permission.

[OrlandInstructor]

Thank you for the update.

[RandyP]

Thanks for the updated numbers. While it is rather disheartening that they are so low, and cost IS a huge factor, the inability to carry on public transportation takes many hundreds of thousands of metro Chicago residents out of the game. The CTA alone provides 1.7 MILLION rides each weekday.

 

I am convinced that folks are simply not applying because of how they commute each day.

[junglebob]

If 142,000 get a FCCL by the end of the year that should be about 1.45 percent of the adult population of Illinois. If 53000 more are issued in 2015 we'd be up to about 195,000 or almost 2 percent. We might be get close to having as large a percentage as Nebraska which was at 2.17 percent (figures from maybe almost 2 years ago). We are ahead of New Hampshire with .96 percent with LTC. So why is New Hampshire so low. Not cost , $10 for 4 years.(Not so non-resident friendly $100 fee) Not training, non required. It is a shall issue state. It could be that open carry affects the numbers. I found percentage figures for other states at crimereasearch.org apparently the figures were from a early 2014 as it had Illinois at 33,000.

 

Do we have any recent numbers for each county? What is the county with the highest percentage?

[vito]

Of the estimated 145K that will be licensed by year's end, I wonder how many actually carry daily. Between the need to use public transportation in Chicago, the ban on carrying in government buildings, and the number of private companies that ban carry (including mandated bans in health care facilities and schools, etc.) I wonder if even a third of those licensed carry every day. If only a third carry, then it means that in a state as big as IL we have only about 50,000 carrying, which surely will not be enough to engender a general fear in the minds of the thugs that they might actually face an armed "victim" when they attempt their crime. I don't know what the numbers needed are for reaching that society awareness where criminals seeing a handful of people assume that at least one of that handful is armed, and choose to ply their trade in other ways. And with the fear of a terrorist attack looming larger and larger, unless we see a lot more carriers there is a good likelihood that no one, or virtually no one will be in the audience armed at any gathering of people that the terrorist chooses as his "target rich opportunity".

[gregivq]

^

I know some people who wanted CCL as a supplement to their FOID. It may be silly but people don't trust FOID to get them out of a self-defense situation even when it's around their property. An example of this is a self-defense shooting in an alley by your garage.

[DD123]

I believe that by March/April we'll see those numbers rise higher than we've seen, especially if the attacks continue. Even more so if we have one here in the states.

 

People will begin to understand that they need to take responsibility for their own safety.

[kwc]

I believe that by March/April we'll see those numbers rise higher than we've seen, especially if the attacks continue. Even more so if we have one here in the states.

 

People will begin to understand that they need to take responsibility for their own safety.

 

The numbers could get a temporary bump due to the tragic attacks in Paris, but we won't see that for at least 60-120 days--people need to get training first and apply for their licenses. Feb/Mar would be a good timeframe to expect to see that impact. As you suggested, any additional attacks could elevate our numbers further.

 

If we succeed in winning the nonresident lawsuits the nonresident license numbers will go up, most notably in our neighboring states.

[GTX63]

Terrorism, riots/looting/civil unrest, mass murders, media and political hoplophobia and the current and potential next administration will continue to raise gun awareness and ownership.

Paris and Mali within one week, the bombed Russian airliner before that, the Syrian refugees, the border issues....there is no way to keep a lid on all this noise. It is now reaching the low information sound bite suburban demographic as well as the other normally disinterested public. The cost in Illinois will continue to be prohibitive, but people are becoming aware all over the country. This isn't going the way Mr. Obama had envisioned.

[ChicagoRonin70]

 

I wonder how much that has to do with some of the anti-gun actions, such as the taxation BS from Cook County, being dissuasive for people trying get armed and be able to sustain that financially. I also wonder if people like Toni Preckwinkle and the Sheriff of Dartingham are looking at the CCL numbers and brainstorming ways to try to discourage as many people as possible from wanting to buy and use a firearm, period. I'd say there's a pretty good chance of that, actually.

 

B@stards.

 

Ronin, the quick and simplest answer to why is money/cost, which is an anti gun action in itself. I know from speaking to friends, neighbors and family.

It $500 before a guy or gal even buys a gun, ammo and any range time or additional training.

 

Compared to the average take during a mugging, one could say that it was cheaper to be held up 5 or ten times and lose their pocket money than pay the same amount to the state and then wait 5 months for permission.

 

 

Oh, I know that the current financial burden of getting a CCL is dissuasive. I was more referring to how much it's dropping off for new licensees, more than predicted by those studying it academically/professionally, and if that unforeseen extra decline in new licenses is being partially wrought by the surge of anti-gun actions by the local government bodies.

 

One could say it's cheaper . . . until one loses a life or ends up in the hospital with a gunshot/stab/beat-down injury and loses tens of thousands of dollars worth of medical bills and lost earnings.

[GTX63]

Yep. I agree. My neighbor, who I took my concealed carry training with, and who scored perfect in qualifying, still hasn't applied for his permit. His situation however isn't financial; at the class he told the instructor he wasn't sure if faced with the decision if he would be able to "put somebody down."

Better to have it and never need it than to need it and never have it.

[Marie]

Some people are just lazy. I know at least a handful (if not more) of people for whom time and money are not an obstacle in getting their CCL. After recent events they've told me they really want to get it. I've provided instructor recommendations and contact info. They've still not done anything. They tell me themselves they're lazy. I've told them to not expect me to protect their lazy butts.

[Hipshot Percussion]

Thanks for the updated numbers. While it is rather disheartening that they are so low, and cost IS a huge factor, the inability to carry on public transportation takes many hundreds of thousands of metro Chicago residents out of the game. The CTA alone provides 1.7 MILLION rides each weekday.

 

I am convinced that folks are simply not applying because of how they commute each day.

+1 Between the money and the CTA... absolutely

[04 Cobra]

If 137,675 CCL's have been issued, (x) times that by $150.00 per application. Equals $20,651,250.00 this program has generated for the State of Illinois. Is my math correct???? Good 'ol Illinois!!! Sure would be nice if they put their hands in their own pockets every once in awhile!!

 

 

Thanks for the post.....

[DD123]

Some people are just lazy. I know at least a handful (if not more) of people for whom time and money are not an obstacle in getting their CCL. After recent events they've told me they really want to get it. I've provided instructor recommendations and contact info. They've still not done anything. They tell me themselves they're lazy. I've told them to not expect me to protect their lazy butts.

+1

 

I have a few friends just like that. They'll waste inordinate amounts of time either playing on the internet or playing video games and then talk about needing to get their CCL. Then they say that they don't have the time to spare. I've stopped bringing it up because I feel like a broken record.

[vito]

Saying it would be preferable to get mugged/robbed several times before it equals the cost of getting a CCL is either a joke, or idiocy. Why would anyone put themselves voluntarily in the position of hoping that the mugger is a gentle soul who will settle for your wallet, cash, cell phone, car keys and whatever else you have with you. Maybe he'll decide to just kill you so as to leave no witness who can identify him. Maybe he'll decide to spend a little time with your wife or girlfriend who is with you. I sure hope you were joking in that remark, for your sake.

[GTX63]

Saying it would be preferable to get mugged/robbed several times before it equals the cost of getting a CCL is either a joke, or idiocy. Why would anyone put themselves voluntarily in the position of hoping that the mugger is a gentle soul who will settle for your wallet, cash, cell phone, car keys and whatever else you have with you. Maybe he'll decide to just kill you so as to leave no witness who can identify him. Maybe he'll decide to spend a little time with your wife or girlfriend who is with you. I sure hope you were joking in that remark, for your sake.

 

Wasn't speaking for myself, just the ridiculousness of the subject.

[Hipshot Percussion]

If 137,675 CCL's have been issued, (x) times that by $150.00 per application. Equals $20,651,250.00 this program has generated for the State of Illinois. Is my math correct???? Good 'ol Illinois!!! Sure would be nice if they put their hands in their own pockets every once in awhile!!

 

 

Thanks for the post.....

Actually 152,401 applied... so 152401 * 150 = $22,160,150 :)

[GTX63]

Cut in half, that is $11 million per year, and they can't get the laminating machine fixed!

[kwc]

Cut in half, that is $11 million per year, and they can't get the laminating machine fixed!

 

[purple]Now, now, don't be too quick to judge. Only $120 of each $150 application fee actually goes to the Firearm Services Bureau. [/purple]

[Tango7]

 

I wonder how much that has to do with some of the anti-gun actions, such as the taxation BS from Cook County, being dissuasive for people trying get armed and be able to sustain that financially. I also wonder if people like Toni Preckwinkle and the Sheriff of Dartingham are looking at the CCL numbers and brainstorming ways to try to discourage as many people as possible from wanting to buy and use a firearm, period. I'd say there's a pretty good chance of that, actually.

 

B@stards.

Ronin, the quick and simplest answer to why is money/cost, which is an anti gun action in itself. I know from speaking to friends, neighbors and family.

It $500 before a guy or gal even buys a gun, ammo and any range time or additional training.

 

Compared to the average take during a mugging, one could say that it was cheaper to be held up 5 or ten times and lose their pocket money than pay the same amount to the state and then wait 5 months for permission.

 

This. The amount of the poll tax and mandated class length were established to be as onerous as possible, but not higher than elsewhere in the US to avoid successful challenges.

[Kevin C]

As a CCL instructor, these numbers are disappointing. What concerns me more is the fact that low CCL numbers can affect future CCL legislation! There's power in numbers!!

[ChicagoRonin70]

As a CCL instructor, these numbers are disappointing. What concerns me more is the fact that low CCL numbers can affect future CCL legislation! There's power in numbers!!

 

Yes, that's the issue that concerns me, as well. I've been talking to a number of researchers studying this in Illinois, as well as how it fits nationally, and the indicators are that Illinois is probably only going to barely hit 2 percent of its population as a sustainable number of concealed carry licensees. That power in numbers that you speak of, that's very important for future legislation, because if those opposed to CCL can point to the fact that only a very small minority of the population is carrying, regardless of the reasons and strictures that create such a situation, then they might well be able to us that as a leverage point to further restrict carry. Therein lies the rub and the very slippery slope.

[lockman]

 

As long as the fees and training hours remain high and long, the numbers will be very sub-average.

I believe half the fee and half the hours would result in 3-4 times the numbers.

[WhiskeyRebel]

As long as the fees and training hours remain high and long, the numbers will be very sub-average. I believe half the fee and half the hours would result in 3-4 times the numbers.

And allowing out of state people to apply.

[GLOCK22]

It would be nice if they either reduced the renewal fee to half of the initial cost, and/or made it a ten year license instead of a five year.