FOID and CCL data by county - current data and historical trends

[Hap]

Apologies for the long gap in posts on this topic, but at the urging of Molly B. and mauserme I'm going to resume posting the data along with a small amount of analysis. I'd like to keep the most current data here in the first post, for easy reference, along with a summary of historical data. Other material will be posted farther down the thread.

 

The first document is a mild reformatting of the ISP FOIA response and contains the counts of active FOID cards and CCLs for each county, broken down by gender, and with statewide totals:

 

FOID+CCL by county and gender YE2017.pdf

 

Also, here are the same data, with calculations of % female for FOID and CCL, along with my favorite stat, the percentage of FOID cardholders who also have CCLs. By the way, I sincerely hope that some creative IC member will chime in with a good name for this stat. I've been calling it "CCL density" which is about as inspiring as last night's pizza. In any case, this number is growing and reflects the growing interest in carry among the state's lawful gun owners, which the raw population percentage does not.

 

FOID+CCL by county and gender YE2017 with stats.pdf

 

Finally, here are compilations of FOID and FCCL stats from past years. These are year-end data, by county, with gender omitted to keep the documents readable. I've included %change figures for each year. The FOID data cover year-end 2015 through year-end 2017; the FCCL data go back another year, to 2014. If you're a stickler for consistency, be patient; I'll try to get the year-end 2014 FOID data (I have it for October 2014 but didn't request it for year-end).

 

Note that for 2016, there is a county labeled "zzNull" and showing a fair number of both FOIDs and FCCLs. I assume these are entries in ISP's database for which no county was coded. I have no further information on these entries, although I assume they represent valid licenses and should be included in the statewide totals. Also note that Saline County shows a surprising drop in FOIDs for 2016, surprising enough that it is probably an error and possibly related to the "zzNull" figure. I have no further information on this one either.

 

Active FOID by county at year end, 2015-2017.pdf

 

Active FCCL by county at year end, 2014-2017.pdf

 

FCCL as percentage of FOID at year end, 2015-2017.pdf

Edited May 27, 2018 at 06:41 PM by Hap

[Molly B.]

Thank you, Hap!

 

6-30-2016

 

FOID & CCL By County 2015

 

6-30-2015

 

3-17-2014

 

Year End 2014

 

10-24-14

 

5-3-13

 

2007 Click Here to view compiled by our dear, departed, Ol Coach - activist, instigator, mentor, encourager, advocate, friend, and a good, good man. May we be worthy to follow in his footsteps. May he rest in peace.

[Lou]

That’s good info. I just e-mailed my RINO Representative with the number of votes he’s losing by siding with the Madigan anti-gun Democrats.

[Euler]

I'm not sure if it has any sociological significance, but the highest % of both femals FOIDs and female CCLs are in Saline county (far south).

 

The lowest % of female FOIDs is in Jo Daviess county (upper northwest).

The lowest % of female CCLs is in Dupage county (northeast).

[jim123]

Those are sad numbers. Twelve percent of gun owners have a carry license. It's like owning cars but not having a drivers license.

[Euler]

Those are sad numbers. Twelve percent of gun owners have a carry license. It's like owning cars but not having a drivers license.

National averages are 30% own firearms and 6% are concealed carriers (so 20% of owners carry).

Illinois averages are 17% own firearms and 2% are concealed carriers.

 

It was pointed out in one of the other statistics threads that that's only legal/licensed numbers. It's practically impossible to measure illegal vs legal proportions across the state and across the country.

[Glock23]

Those are sad numbers. Twelve percent of gun owners have a carry license. It's like owning cars but not having a drivers license.

I know lots of people who only own rifles and shotguns for hunting and target shooting.

 

Not all gun owners have handguns they want to carry.

[IH8IL]

So you’re telling me will county is behind cook on how many ccw carriers there is?

[mauserme]

Thanks for getting this updated so quickly.

[Hap]

So you’re telling me will county is behind cook on how many ccw carriers there is?

The populations of Cook and Will counties were estimated (US Census) to be 5,211,263 and 692,661 as of 7/1/2017. So the percentage of the population in these counties with CCLs (fudging a bit and using the 7/1/2017 population estimate for 12/31) are 1.48% and 2.71% respectively, i.e. a Will County resident is almost twice as likely to have a CCL as a Cook County resident. So, taking population into account, Will is comfortably ahead of Cook.

 

To me what is more interesting is that of those Cook County residents who have gone to the trouble of getting a FOID card, 13.4% have gone on, despite the many obstacles to doing so, to get CCLs. This compares quite favorably with Will's figure of 14.6%. Both of these are larger than the statewide figure of 12.2%.

[Hap]

Those are sad numbers. Twelve percent of gun owners have a carry license. It's like owning cars but not having a drivers license.

It's been increasing steadily. I wouldn't be surprised if a fairly high percentage of recent applicants for FOID cards are also applying for carry licenses, either concurrently or soon after. There are strong hints that this is the case.

[markthesignguy]

We need to FOIA the data with another breakdown as well - by HOUSE DISTRICT.

We don't need to ask for the Senate numbers - just add the two House districts to generate the Senate numbers.

I was (and still AM) trying to extract rough numbers for each legislative district from the county data.

edit - that might not be possible, but they surely can break it down by ZIP CODE.
At LEAST the 5 digit zip code.
The dash four part of the zip code might be too deep, i.e. individual routes.

Edited June 15, 2018 at 01:17 PM by markthesignguy

[daved350]

Those are sad numbers. Twelve percent of gun owners have a carry license. It's like owning cars but not having a drivers license.

You also have to remember that a number, although relatively small compared statewide, that all law enforcement personnel (city cops, county sheriff's deputies, most jailer, state troopers, correctional officers, and parole agents) are required to have a FOID and most do not require a FCCL or carry under the IROCC or IPACC and those number would not fall under these stats.

[lockman]

Those are sad numbers. Twelve percent of gun owners have a carry license. It's like owning cars but not having a drivers license.

I know lots of people who only own rifles and shotguns for hunting and target shooting.

 

Not all gun owners have handguns they want to carry.

 

There are lots of handguns I would like to own and carry. One can dream.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Twostarrz]

Moral of story..... more crimes are committed in places where perpetrators are least likely to get shot for committing crime.

[Hap]

Some historical data added to first post.

[ealcala31]

Are there any stats by mumicipality?

[soundguy]

 

Assuming there are still two genders...

 

I imagine that any additional genders are likely not keeping or bearing arms.

[ChicagoRonin70]

 

 

Assuming there are still two genders...

 

I imagine that any additional genders are likely not keeping or bearing arms.

 

 

That's entirely wrong. I have taught several people who have non-binary gender identification to shoot, and I know at least three of them who have gotten their CCLs.

 

They're the ones who actually need the ability to defend themselves most, from violent bigots, and I'm happy to help them acquire the means to do so definitively.

[soundguy]

 

 

Assuming there are still two genders...

 

I imagine that any additional genders are likely not keeping or bearing arms.

That's entirely wrong. I have taught several people who have non-binary gender identification to shoot, and I know at least three of them who have gotten their CCLs.

 

They're the ones who actually need the ability to defend themselves most, from violent bigots, and I'm happy to help them acquire the means to do so definitively.

Yeah... I apologize. I really do know better and posed a cheap joke. The several I know well are pretty anti gun. A useful knowledge of guns is not dependent on ones choice of any of society’s typical identifiers. Or any of the new ones. I will keep working on the ones I know.

[Hap]

Are there any stats by mumicipality?

Nothing which is both systematic and recent. The older data are pretty dirty - there are far more counties in Illinois which have cities named Chicago than you would believe possible, lots of incorrect spellings (at city and county level), and just about every other sort of data entry error you can imagine. The newer data appear to be much cleaner but I haven't asked for the complete breakdown by city recently. I've settled, for now, on the county level as a good compromise - fine enough resolution to be useful in tracking differences across geographical areas over time, but easy enough for the ISP to provide without putting in an inordinate amount of effort. (I believe someone was considering asking for data based on ZIP codes but I don't know if any requests were actually filed.)

[ChicagoRonin70]

 

 

 

I imagine that any additional genders are likely not keeping or bearing arms.

That's entirely wrong. I have taught several people who have non-binary gender identification to shoot, and I know at least three of them who have gotten their CCLs.

 

They're the ones who actually need the ability to defend themselves most, from violent bigots, and I'm happy to help them acquire the means to do so definitively.

Yeah... I apologize. I really do know better and posed a cheap joke. The several I know well are pretty anti gun. A useful knowledge of guns is not dependent on ones choice of any of society’s typical identifiers. Or any of the new ones. I will keep working on the ones I know.

 

 

In the past two years, my non-gender/orientation-conforming acquaintances, and acquaintances of acquaintances, have been disproportionately asking me to get them familiarized with firearms for self-protection's sake. Given that segment of the population comprises anywhere from about 0.5–1.5 percent of people, I'd say 20 percent of those asking for my help with firearms are non-cisgender-heterosexual, and probably 75 percent are non-heterosexual who seek me out to take them to the range.

 

These folks are scared witless about being victimized, and many of them have had it happen to them on multiple occasions. Not to mention that almost all of them are non-male identifying, and have a litany of horror stories to tell about being attacked over the years.

 

The unfortunate thing that pops up far too often is that because of how society marginalizes and persecutes them, so many of them have to seek mental health treatment for self-preservation's sake, which then disqualifies them from being able to own/carry/use a firearm for protection.

 

Illinois really bites it hard when it comes to screwing over the people who need to be able to protect themselves the most. It's despicable.

[Hap]

Mid-year data have been requested.

[Illini2A312]

Anyone here have data by age group? Always wondered what the average age for FOID/CCL was/if it skewed older or younger.

[Hap]

I've received the mid-year FCCL data. I need to get some issues with the FOID data sorted out but while waiting for that to happen I thought I'd post some of the FCCL data. The attached PDF has the year-end FCCL data for the past few years along with the mid-year numbers, by county but without gender, along with the corresponding growth rates (annual, except YTD for 2018).

Statewide, carry licenses are up about 10.0%. Cook County continues to exceed expectations at 12.7%. Cook also beats all of the collar counties: DuPage 10.0%, Kane 10.0%, Lake 9.6%, McHenry 9.7%, and Will 11.0%.

The annual growth rates for 2015, 2016, and 2017 were 56.5%, 50.2%, and 27.3% respectively. The first-half growth rate of 10% suggests that we will see a further decline for 2018 but also that the decline may be leveling off. It will be interesting to see where it stabilizes.

Note that one year has some licenses reported with a county of "null". The number is included but I have no idea whether it is meaningful.

FCCL by county year-end 2014 through mid 2018.pdf

[ChicagoRonin70]

 

I've received the mid-year FCCL data. I need to get some issues with the FOID data sorted out but while waiting for that to happen I thought I'd post some of the FCCL data. The attached PDF has the year-end FCCL data for the past few years along with the mid-year numbers, by county but without gender, along with the corresponding growth rates (annual, except YTD for 2018).

Statewide, carry licenses are up about 10.0%. Cook County continues to exceed expectations at 12.7%. Cook also beats all of the collar counties: DuPage 10.0%, Kane 10.0%, Lake 9.6%, McHenry 9.7%, and Will 11.0%.

The annual growth rates for 2015, 2016, and 2017 were 56.5%, 50.2%, and 27.3% respectively. The first-half growth rate of 10% suggests that we will see a further decline for 2018 but also that the decline may be leveling off. It will be interesting to see where it stabilizes.

Note that one year has some licenses reported with a county of "null". The number is included but I have no idea whether it is meaningful.

FCCL by county year-end 2014 through mid 2018.pdf

 

 

If you go back through the early discussions that were had about the licensee rates and the projected declines, I mentioned that I had been in contact with a number of researchers who were tracking and making predictions about this sort of thing. They proved to be very incorrect about the "leveling" number of total licensees (they had predicted somewhere around 250K by 5 to 7 years or so, and then holding steady due to licensee mortality and leaving the state, et cetera). However, the trend line for the percentages that they had predicted were, if I recall correctly, pretty close to what is being seen from those numbers, especially the precipitous drop-off from 2016 to 2017, because of reaching a place where many of the licensees who had the financial means (as well as combined with the non-criminal record/disqualifying status) were pretty much tapped out. They predicted that a certain percentage of each population demographic would be inclined to acquire a CCL, and based their trend predictions on that. They obviously underestimated what the interest would be, so they were wrong on their base percentages of those interested in acquiring a CCL, but it appears that they were at least reasonably close on how long the "well" of CCL applicants with the means to acquire one would continue to be productive.

 

This being said, if Illinois CCL holders continue on this trend, then you'll have about 20 percent growth this year, about 11–13 next year, 8–9.5 percent in 2020, and probably hitting the equilibrium of a stable number of licensees by 2021 to 2023 and being somewhere in the neighborhood of 455,000 licensees. There might be some incremental growth above the equilibrium point, so maybe by 15 years after CCL was made legal, we get to about 500K licensees.

 

However, one thing that needs to be taken into account is that it is very likely that people who are most likely to be CCL holders are also those most likely to be part of the hemorrhagic exodus of people from this rights-abusing state. If that is indeed true, we could end up seeing not only a population drop in the state increase as it did this year, but the total number of licensees and percentage of the population who have them decrease as well.

 

Still, even having around twice what the original academic predictions were for a CCL holder pool is extremely heartening.

 

The thing that makes me kind of unhappy even with that is that it's still not even 5 percent of the population.

Edited July 13, 2018 at 06:45 AM by ChicagoRonin70