CCL Totals - Nonresident and Resident - Dec 2015

[kwc]

The December totals are here!

The first table below captures the current cumulative totals of Illinois Concealed Carry Licenses (CCLs) issued to nonresidents and residents since the program began, obtained via Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request.

The second table provides a trend analysis based on prior FOIA requests. I didn't start requesting resident totals until Dec 2014, hence the gaps in the data set.

For comparison's sake, last month's totals (Nov 2015) are presented here: http://illinoiscarry.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=59091&hl=¨

Some brief observations:
* No new nonresident licenses have been issued in the past month
* 4,221 new CCLs were issued between Nov 10 and Dec 8. Grand total # CCLs issued (resident + nonresident) is now 141,896.
* The backlog of CCLs awaiting CCLRB review continues to climb (from 1,582 on Nov 10 to 1,676 as of Nov 10).
* Another 28 licenses have been revoked since the Nov 10 report. [Note that ISP classifies revocations differently than cancellations, with the former driven by such things as legal problems and mental illnesses and the latter a result of moves out of state, deaths, voluntary submissions, etc.]

I haven't done a trend analysis of the number of applications, but that might be interesting to watch over the next couple of months to see if there is a bump as a result of current national- and international-level events.

 

 

[spec5]

Thanks for keeping up with the FOI requests.

[OrlandInstructor]

Thanks for the update

[ChicagoRonin70]

Well, as compared to last month, the total new licenses after 342 days is 141,896-91,753 has finally topped 50,000 (50,143 to be exact), so the new license rate per day is 146.62 (slightly higher than the 146.25 daily as of last month), meaning the estimated total by the end of 2015 looks like we will definitely top 145,000 (145,268 estimated total).

 

That's slightly more than I predicted (just under 143,000) at the beginning of the year, but the more significant number is that new licenses in 2014 were just under 91.75K and this year it drops probably right around 53.5K. So, that's a drop of 42 percent of new licenses from the first to second years. That's kind of discouraging, because unless something changes significantly regarding the cost, process, or restrictions on where concealed carry is legal, that trend is just going to continue. As such, next year, I expect that topping 180 K total licenses (35,000 new licenses in 2016) through the end of next year might be overly optimistic. That's maybe 1.4 percent of the population after three years (1.1 percent through the end of this year).

 

Something definitely needs to be done to change that for the better.

[kwc]

Well, as compared to last month, the total new licenses after 342 days is 141,896-91,753 has finally topped 50,000 (50,143 to be exact), so the new license rate per day is 146.62 (slightly higher than the 146.25 daily as of last month), meaning the estimated total by the end of 2015 looks like we will definitely top 145,000 (145,268 estimated total).

 

Instead of a running average, you could also look at licenses issued per day during the previous reported period and the present (96/day vs. 150/day). For the present period (Nov 10 - Dec 8) we were closer to the running average issue rate that you calculated for the year. That's encouraging.

 

Due to the lag time between application and issue, this accounts for applications submitted roughly around the Aug/Sep/Oct timeframe.

[Joebillybob]

So if there have been roughly 157k applicants, 141k approvals,1308 denied (final disposition), 1676 CCLRB, 338 revoked after issuance...

 

141877 + 1308+1676+338=141,599

 

157724-141598 equals a whole lotta backlog on applications...

 

I'm using the new math so please be gentle with any errors..

[MagSlap]

So if there have been roughly 157k applicants, 141k approvals,1308 denied (final disposition), 1676 CCLRB, 338 revoked after issuance...

 

141877 + 1308+1676+338=141,599

 

157724-141598 equals a whole lotta backlog on applications...

 

I'm using the new math so please be gentle with any errors..

 

Do you mean common core?

Then after 3 pages of proofing 157724-141598 equals BANANA.

[GTX63]

Well, as compared to last month, the total new licenses after 342 days is 141,896-91,753 has finally topped 50,000 (50,143 to be exact), so the new license rate per day is 146.62 (slightly higher than the 146.25 daily as of last month), meaning the estimated total by the end of 2015 looks like we will definitely top 145,000 (145,268 estimated total).

 

That's slightly more than I predicted (just under 143,000) at the beginning of the year, but the more significant number is that new licenses in 2014 were just under 91.75K and this year it drops probably right around 53.5K. So, that's a drop of 42 percent of new licenses from the first to second years. That's kind of discouraging, because unless something changes significantly regarding the cost, process, or restrictions on where concealed carry is legal, that trend is just going to continue. As such, next year, I expect that topping 180 K total licenses (35,000 new licenses in 2016) through the end of next year might be overly optimistic. That's maybe 1.4 percent of the population after three years (1.1 percent through the end of this year).

 

Something definitely needs to be done to change that for the better.

 

Tomorrow (figuratively) will dictate the numbers. IMO, the instability in current and future events will push a lot of people off the couch, regardless of the cost and classroom requirements. I'm not saying it will be a surge, but the perpetual threat of riots, terrorism, upcoming elections and general instability will have a lot of influence. Won't matter if violent crime has dropped. Perception is everything.

[vito]

Do you have the numbers for licenses by county, or as a percentage of county population? I know that the last time I saw numbers by county it was clear that I am one of only a tiny minority here in Rockford to have procured a license.

[Tip]

So if there have been roughly 157k applicants, 141k approvals,1308 denied (final disposition), 1676 CCLRB, 338 revoked after issuance...

141877 + 1308+1676+338=141,599

157724-141598 equals a whole lotta backlog on applications...

I'm using the new math so please be gentle with any errors..

 

None of their numbers add up.

141,877 issued

120,287 to males

21,306 to females

 

So what were the other 284 issued to?

 

[.40carry]

 

So if there have been roughly 157k applicants, 141k approvals,1308 denied (final disposition), 1676 CCLRB, 338 revoked after issuance...

141877 + 1308+1676+338=141,599

157724-141598 equals a whole lotta backlog on applications...

I'm using the new math so please be gentle with any errors..

None of their numbers add up.

141,877 issued

120,287 to males

21,306 to females

 

So what were the other 284 issued to?

 

Bruce Jenner types.

[04 Cobra]

 

 

So if there have been roughly 157k applicants, 141k approvals,1308 denied (final disposition), 1676 CCLRB, 338 revoked after issuance...

141877 + 1308+1676+338=141,599

157724-141598 equals a whole lotta backlog on applications...

I'm using the new math so please be gentle with any errors..

None of their numbers add up.

141,877 issued

120,287 to males

21,306 to females

 

So what were the other 284 issued to?

 

Bruce Jenner types.

 

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!

[ChicagoRonin70]

 

Well, as compared to last month, the total new licenses after 342 days is 141,896-91,753 has finally topped 50,000 (50,143 to be exact), so the new license rate per day is 146.62 (slightly higher than the 146.25 daily as of last month), meaning the estimated total by the end of 2015 looks like we will definitely top 145,000 (145,268 estimated total).

 

That's slightly more than I predicted (just under 143,000) at the beginning of the year, but the more significant number is that new licenses in 2014 were just under 91.75K and this year it drops probably right around 53.5K. So, that's a drop of 42 percent of new licenses from the first to second years. That's kind of discouraging, because unless something changes significantly regarding the cost, process, or restrictions on where concealed carry is legal, that trend is just going to continue. As such, next year, I expect that topping 180 K total licenses (35,000 new licenses in 2016) through the end of next year might be overly optimistic. That's maybe 1.4 percent of the population after three years (1.1 percent through the end of this year).

 

Something definitely needs to be done to change that for the better.

 

Tomorrow (figuratively) will dictate the numbers. IMO, the instability in current and future events will push a lot of people off the couch, regardless of the cost and classroom requirements. I'm not saying it will be a surge, but the perpetual threat of riots, terrorism, upcoming elections and general instability will have a lot of influence. Won't matter if violent crime has dropped. Perception is everything.

 

 

I do hope you are correct, my friend. That would be a welcome turn of events, for sure.

[kwc]

The ISP reported a total several months ago that didn't match the sum of male and female licensees, as they did this time. It was corrected during the next reporting period.

 

I suspect there is an oversight in the way they use their filters when retrieving the data.

[Bubbacs]

Yeah I know, I'm late to the thread!

 

Isn't there a list/place where we can see the totals by county?

 

I have an idea for an app but would need to get info updates and can't seem to find them anywhere.

[kevinmcc]

19 non-resident... What a joke.

[kwc]

19 non-resident... What a joke.

 

And it hasn't budged since Sept.

[Hap]

Do you have the numbers for licenses by county, or as a percentage of county population? I know that the last time I saw numbers by county it was clear that I am one of only a tiny minority here in Rockford to have procured a license.

 

I filed a FOIA request for year-end by-county numbers for active FCCLs and FOIDs. When I get those I'll put up a spreadsheet with those along with previous data, over at http://illinoiscarry.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=52540

[kwc]

Hap, I filed an end-of-year request for totals only (not broken out by county) for CCLs and FOIDs. Any projections on whether or not our totals will match?

[ChicagoRonin70]

I'm going to be very interested to see how much the final, official totals wind up being. I've heard from some of the researchers that I know who are tracking this as well that the actual totals might wind up being a few thousand less than the FOIA and updated totals that the ISP has been releasing, due to recounting and reconciling the applications and approvals as a whole rather than the incremental fashion that they use for month-to-month totals.

 

I have not been able to find out why that might be, but apparently that happened last year, as well.

[kwc]

I asked for total CCLs issued (of which some have been canceled, revoked, etc.) AND current number of active CCLs and FOIDs.

[ChicagoRonin70]

I wonder if the "OFFICIAL Total CC licenses by end of 2015" contest for prediction will be the number "issued" or the total number "active"? I think it should be the latter, because although the former would be a higher total, it would be misleading and overly optimistic, because it looks like several hundred to as many as a thousand or more might have been revoked, cancelled, or otherwise no longer active/valid.

 

I believe that there is also the matter of 1,000 rounds of .22 LR or 5 PMAGs riding on what's considered the "official" total of licenses, so perhaps this should be clarified.

[kwc]

I wonder if the "OFFICIAL Total CC licenses by end of 2015" contest for prediction will be the number "issued" or the total number "active"? I think it should be the latter, because although the former would be a higher total, it would be misleading and overly optimistic, because it looks like several hundred to as many as a thousand or more might have been revoked, cancelled, or otherwise no longer active/valid.

 

I believe that there is also the matter of 1,000 rounds of .22 LR or 5 PMAGs riding on what's considered the "official" total of licenses, so perhaps this should be clarified.

 

Has anyone clarified the rules on that contest? I *might* just happen to have received the 2015 end-of-year data from the ISP today...