CCL Totals - Nonresident and Resident - 2015 End-of-Year

[kwc]

The end-of-year totals are here, as of end-of-day on December 31, 2015!

The first table below captures the current cumulative totals of Illinois Concealed Carry Licenses (CCLs) issued to nonresidents and residents since the program began, obtained via Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request.

The second table provides a trend analysis based on prior FOIA requests on CCL totals. I didn't start requesting resident totals until Dec 2014, hence the gaps in the data set.

For comparison's sake, last month's totals (through Dec 8, 2015) are presented here.

 

Some brief observations:

 

* One new nonresident license was issued in the past month, for a grand total of 20.

* 1,452 new CCLs were issued between Dec 8 and Dec 31.

* The backlog of CCLs pending CCLRB review continues to climb (from 1,676 on Dec 8 to 1,724 as of Dec 31).

* Another 10 licenses have been revoked since the Dec 8 report. [Note that ISP classifies revocations differently than cancellations, with the former driven by such things as legal problems and mental illnesses and the latter a result of moves out of state, deaths, voluntary submissions, etc.]

* 8,228 applications were filed between Dec 8 and Dec 31. This is a BIG jump from prior months. This represents 358 applications per day, compared to 190 and 101 average per day in the preceding two months. See chart in third attachment below.

* As of 31 December 2015, there are 1,942,086 active FOID cards.

 

* And the number you’ve all been awaiting)… Grand total # active CCLs (resident + nonresident), as of the end of the final day of 2015, is now 143,348. Update as of Jan 13, 2016: Including those that have been subsequently revoked/cancelled, the ISP has issued a grand total of 143,967 CCLs since the program began.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[ChicagoRonin70]

Argh!

 

If the 143,348 is the final number, then I came in second place with my estimate of 142,955 (only 393 off)

 

It looks like lawman is 23 closer than me, with 143,718 (only 370 off).

 

So close! But, if he doesn't claim his prize, then I shall!

[Hap]

143,718 was lawman's prediction.

[ChicagoRonin70]

143,718 was lawman's prediction.

 

Yep, just realized that and corrected it.

[SKplumber]

It's good to see the total number of permits issued continue to steadily climb higher. Obviously not as many as we all would want, but still good to see.

[KarlJ]

I wonder how many permits would have been issued if the Illinois process weren't so expensive? 15% of our population have a FOID but only 7% of FOID holders, or 1% of our population have a CCL? That's not a horrible number considering where we came from but only 7% of FOID holders? I think over all cost is a deal breaker for way more people than those who can obtain it.

[ChicagoRonin70]

I wonder how many permits would have been issued if the Illinois process weren't so expensive? 15% of our population have a FOID but only 7% of FOID holders, or 1% of our population have a CCL? That's not a horrible number considering where we came from but only 7% of FOID holders? I think over all cost is a deal breaker for way more people than those who can obtain it.

 

That is exactly what is happening, according to researchers I know who are tracking this. The projected total, due to economic and other factors, of CCLs is likely to plateau at perhaps 250,000 over the next few years, and then remain relatively steady as new licensees replace older ones who literally die off. If the costs were cut in half, that number is estimated to quadruple or more.

 

Essentially, the State of Illinois has effectively disenfranchised the majority of their low income population, the very people who live in areas where they need the ability to legally carry for self-protection, with the current costs of the licensing scheme for concealed carry.

 

Why isn't anyone screaming about the racist and classist ramifications of this? Jesse? Al?

[lawman]

I was hoping to win powerball, but I'll take it. Maybe it's a sign of things to come, lol

[ChicagoRonin70]

I was hoping to win powerball, but I'll take it. Maybe it's a sign of things to come, lol

 

Our positions would have been reversed if it weren't for those meddling out-of-state licenses! Curses! Foiled again!

[sfgdcs]

as of 12/31/2015 there was 19280 pending applications not counting the 1724 under cclrb, that means it would take 318 days at their present 60 ccl issued per day in December to clear them.

[kwc]

as of 12/31/2015 there was 19280 pending applications not counting the 1724 under cclrb, that means it would take 318 days at their present 60 ccl issued per day in December to clear them.

 

They'll surge to meet the demand. Early on they were easily processing an average of 250-300 or more per day.

[jmeyers]

You forgot a number kwc, the number of people currently suing the state for a license

[Marie]

I'd not be surprised at all to learn that the December surge of applications has to do with current events.

[ChicagoRonin70]

I'd not be surprised at all to learn that the December surge of applications has to do with current events.

 

Actually, the researchers I have been talking with about this subject say that's exactly why the application surge has occurred. However, even though the number of applications this past month more than doubled compared to previous months, due to the gun-control brouhaha, those are people who were likely to get a CCL anyway except that they have been scared into doing it sooner rather than later. That's just going to front-load the totals of new licenses sought, resulting in fewer licensees applying and being granted towards the end of the year.

[Marie]

I've got two coworkers (and maybe a third) who have been somewhat procrastinating on taking their class, but are finally in a class with Rocco next month.

[ChicagoRonin70]

I've got two coworkers (and maybe a third) who have been somewhat procrastinating on taking their class, but are finally in a class with Rocco next month.

 

http://cdn.meme.am/instances/64081475.jpg

[FarmHand357]

I've got two coworkers (and maybe a third) who have been somewhat procrastinating on taking their class, but are finally in a class with Rocco next month.

 

Me too, but two family members downstate. I think the numbers will will continue at a steady state for awhile...

[kwc]

I placed an update in the opening post. ISP confirmed that the table they provided represented the total number of active licenses. It did not include those that have subsequently been revoked or cancelled (which I had originally requested).

 

If revoked/cancelled licenses are included in the total, there have been 143,967 CCLs issued since the program began. The 143,348 total remains current as the number of licenses that are presently active.

 

Does that change the outcome of the contest? I know the stakes are high on that one!

[BrntWS6]

I wonder how many permits would have been issued if the Illinois process weren't so expensive? 15% of our population have a FOID but only 7% of FOID holders, or 1% of our population have a CCL? That's not a horrible number considering where we came from but only 7% of FOID holders? I think over all cost is a deal breaker for way more people than those who can obtain it.

That's one reason I put off getting my class time done, the fees involved. Which is why I did not opt for the prints, didn't want to invest any more money into it. The other was the amount of places you can't CCW here. I have taken my class since and it's been about 30 days since I applied.

[lawman]

I placed an update in the opening post. ISP confirmed that the table they provided represented the total number of active licenses. It did not include those that have subsequently been revoked or cancelled (which I had originally requested).

 

If revoked/cancelled licenses are included in the total, there have been 143,967 CCLs issued since the program began. The 143,348 total remains current as the number of licenses that are presently active.

 

Does that change the outcome of the contest? I know the stakes are high on that one!

My prediction was 143,718. Using the number active, I am off by 370. Using the number issued I am even closer, only being off by 249. Consider this my victory speech. lol. How do I claim my prize?

[vezpa]

These CCW totals are abysmal.

[DD123]

What's interesting is the number of people that applied in December. That could be due to the two attacks; Paris and Cali.

[ChicagoRonin70]

 

I placed an update in the opening post. ISP confirmed that the table they provided represented the total number of active licenses. It did not include those that have subsequently been revoked or cancelled (which I had originally requested).

 

If revoked/cancelled licenses are included in the total, there have been 143,967 CCLs issued since the program began. The 143,348 total remains current as the number of licenses that are presently active.

 

Does that change the outcome of the contest? I know the stakes are high on that one!

My prediction was 143,718. Using the number active, I am off by 370. Using the number issued I am even closer, only being off by 249. Consider this my victory speech. lol. How do I claim my prize?

 

 

Not so fast, there lawman. If the total issued is used, then hap's guess of 143,945 is only 22 off.

 

Now, we need to know for sure what the standard was!

[lawman]

I believe that the intent of the contest was to guess how many active licenses would be held at the end of the year. When you compare data across states, this is the number used. Secondary statistics may cross compare number of revocations, etc. but the concern of those who care, both pro and anti, focus on the number who have been issued a license by the state and are allowed to legally carry. When the term "holders of ccls" is used, it strongly implies valid licenses and does not include canceled or revoked licenses.

[bishopmr]

Sorry if I've overlooked this data. Does anyone know where I can find Illinois concealed carry license totals either by zip code or county?

[kwc]

Sorry if I've overlooked this data. Does anyone know where I can find Illinois concealed carry license totals either by zip code or county?

@Hap said in another post that he is awaiting a response from the ISP on his FOIA request, originally submitted on Dec 31.

[Hap]

 

 

I placed an update in the opening post. ISP confirmed that the table they provided represented the total number of active licenses. It did not include those that have subsequently been revoked or cancelled (which I had originally requested).

 

If revoked/cancelled licenses are included in the total, there have been 143,967 CCLs issued since the program began. The 143,348 total remains current as the number of licenses that are presently active.

 

Does that change the outcome of the contest? I know the stakes are high on that one!

My prediction was 143,718. Using the number active, I am off by 370. Using the number issued I am even closer, only being off by 249. Consider this my victory speech. lol. How do I claim my prize?

 

 

Not so fast, there lawman. If the total issued is used, then hap's guess of 143,945 is only 22 off.

 

Now, we need to know for sure what the standard was!

 

 

I interpreted the question to be how many active licenses would there be at the end of the year. I didn't try to correct for either revocations, out-of-state moves, or other shrinkage, nor for applications stuck in various stages of the appeals process which might ultimately result in licenses being issued - it seemed like there wasn't enough data to make any kind of reasonable guess. In any case, at the end of the day the only thing that matters to me is how many of us can leave our property lawfully carrying a loaded, concealed firearm, i.e. the number of current active licenses. More is better, lots more is lots better, and I want to see a million active FCCLs someday.

[junglebob]

These CCW totals are abysmal.

 

We've got 12 people, I believe, at our church taking an Illinois Concealed Carry Class with Sirflyguy from our church. There are 4 of us who have their LTC now so I expect the number to swell about 400% this spring. From some figures I found on crimeresearch.org website on the number of LTC holders from each state and percentage of adults we should be at about 1.45% having an Illinois LTC, that is better than New Hampshire which is at less than 1% (.96%). Their resident LTC is only $10 so it isn't a cost factor there and they were the first state to issue LTC, in 1924 or there abouts. No training required for New Hampshire LTC. Non-resident LTC is $100.

[Hap]

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