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Moore/Shepard hearing - 7th Circuit


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A 3 Judge Panel of the 7th Circuit Court of appeals will be hearing the Shepard/Moore case this Friday. Under the PI schedule that's in the 7th Circuit, the "April 2012 sitting" of the court, the last day of that is August 8th, which is why I keep saying that date.

 

Then, the loser of either case has the option to appeal directly to the US Supreme Court with a cert petition. If they accept the cert, which is considered a certainty if the we lose (and less so if the state loses and cert petitions), we'll have a decision by 6/24/2013.

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There are two good scenarios that I see.

 

1. We lose, we appeal, and SCOTUS takes the case.

 

2. We win, the state appeals, and SCOTUS takes the case.

 

Worst case. We win, but only on open carry and the state does not appeal. If I were the other side and we were to win only on OC, I might well accept that and than continue to block LTC, just out of spite if nothing else. We would still not be legally able to carry in a car, or any public space. And there is no guarantee that whatever limited OC movement might come about would change the dynamic much.

 

The more I think about it the more I think that this is a likely situation. SCOTUS has been fairly clear that concealed carry has a lower degree of protection (if any) than does OC.

 

I still think a few years down the road after a decision that we get LTC anyway, just from momentum if nothing else.

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Exactly what I expect since both lower courts said this. They complained the supreme court wasn't specific enough or at least plain enough in its language in Heller. Good, SCOTUS will be very clear this time on this very specific issue (2nd amendment extends past your doorstep just like speech, religion, pursuit of happiness, etc) and everyone in the U.S. will benefit. Just like Heller and McDonald. The ban ends in a year or less!!
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Exactly what I expect since both lower courts said this. They complained the supreme court wasn't specific enough or at least plain enough in its language in Heller. Good, SCOTUS will be very clear this time on this very specific issue (2nd amendment extends past your doorstep just like speech, religion, pursuit of happiness, etc) and everyone in the U.S. will benefit. Just like Heller and McDonald. The ban ends in a year or less!!

 

This scenario is why it's important we get Obama the heck out of the oval office. He will nominate another Sotomayor or Kagan.

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Is there a possibility that this will be remanded without an order for injunction?

i.e. Can the 7th send it back down and set us back a few more years by requiring another trial or whatever (similar to what happened in Wilson) ?

 

On a side-note, how can these courts cop out with regard to ruling on the constitutionality of legislation? It's cowardly.

"Big daddy SCOTUS didn't tell us the answer, so we don't know." Pathetic. The defense of our liberties in this country on nearly every front has faltered, and nearly collapse. We're a nation of cowards.

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To save me the trouble of looking it up, can someone tell me where the oral arguments will be held and what time? Is the public allowed to attend? To me it is worth taking a day off of work to experience.

 

I would like to attend the arguments: What time on Friday? Same building as the McDonald orals?

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A 3 Judge Panel of the 7th Circuit Court of appeals will be hearing the Shepard/Moore case this Friday. Under the PI schedule that's in the 7th Circuit, the "April 2012 sitting" of the court, the last day of that is August 8th, which is why I keep saying that date. Then, the loser of either case has the option to appeal directly to the US Supreme Court with a cert petition. If they accept the cert, which is considered a certainty if the we lose (and less so if the state loses and cert petitions), we'll have a decision by 6/24/2013.

 

Thank you Gray, for one of the clearest explanations of the possible series of events we could expect, that I have read thus far. It would then seem, that if Obama does win re-election, that there wouldn't be enough time for a newly seated SCOTUS justice to be hearing the case. Do you agree?

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Bob -- this is thebestand fastest case that could go to SCOTUS. However, we could win the appeal, I think they will punt and not give us a direct win. They could then remand the case to the lower cour like Ezell and we get bogged down in the district court.

I don't disagree with you on any of that.

 

Predicting what any court will do with a hot button type issue like this is fraught with great uncertainty. No one knows until there is a ruling. And even then there is no certainty as to what the ruling means in any practical way.

 

I only mentioned what I thought were the two best things that could happen and the worst. Getting sent back is somewhere between best and worst as far as I am concerned.

 

People seem to forget what actually happened to date in DC after Heller and in Chicago after McDonald. While things improved in a limited way, there are still 5 or 10 court cases to go before they are really settled. It is still restricted enough in both places that very few people can afford the time and expense to go through the roadblocks deliberately put up by those cities.

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Exactly what I expect since both lower courts said this. They complained the supreme court wasn't specific enough or at least plain enough in its language in Heller. Good, SCOTUS will be very clear this time on this very specific issue (2nd amendment extends past your doorstep just like speech, religion, pursuit of happiness, etc) and everyone in the U.S. will benefit. Just like Heller and McDonald. The ban ends in a year or less!!

 

I would like to think so as well. but, what makes you think there will be 5 votes on the current SCOTUS to make that happen? It is pretty obvious to us what way they should rule, but may not be so obvious to them. I could see a 5/4 split against us this time. I would not like it, but it is not outside the realm of reasonably possible things that could happen.

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Obama - election: Yes. This next presidential election is critical for SCOTUS and our second amendment rights.

 

5-4 split. Yes. I don't think we can assume it would go our way. I would hope it would based upon Heller and McDonald; but I worry that the outcome isn't assurred otherwise those rulings might have been stronger.

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I think our opponents are hoping we don't catch on to the newest attack that the Second Amendment can be limited to "inside the home". I do not think this was a fluke, but a carefully laid out strategy. Why not? The first and forth amendments have mostly been limited there. Why not the Second. I think this tactic comes from "on high" and has been passed down to the Federal judiciary throughout.
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I think our opponents are hoping we don't catch on to the newest attack that the Second Amendment can be limited to "inside the home". I do not think this was a fluke, but a carefully laid out strategy. Why not? The first and forth amendments have mostly been limited there. Why not the Second. I think this tactic comes from "on high" and has been passed down to the Federal judiciary throughout.

The 3rd and 4th are limited to the home because the word home is actually in the amendment whereas in the 2nd it does not appear thus it is not limited to it.

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Worst case. We win, but only on open carry and the state does not appeal. If I were the other side and we were to win only on OC, I might well accept that and than continue to block LTC, just out of spite if nothing else. We would still not be legally able to carry in a car, or any public space. And there is no guarantee that whatever limited OC movement might come about would change the dynamic much.

 

The more I think about it the more I think that this is a likely situation. SCOTUS has been fairly clear that concealed carry has a lower degree of protection (if any) than does OC.

 

That's OK. That's what happened in Ohio and Wisconsin. Open carry is decreed OK, and people actually start to open carry. Teh Panics!, and suddenly concealed doesn't seem so bad.

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I will hang out near Ogilvie till about 0800. After that I am going to Lou Mitchels on Jackson. Just South west of Ogilvie. Good diner, fast service (usually).

 

South of Union and Ogilvie to Jackson. Head West. (right)

 

219 S Dearborn

 

If there are any other preferences let me know.

 

Edit: Due to abolts comment, heading directly to court building.

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Does anyone know whether BOTH Alan Gura (Moore) and Charles Cooper (Shepard) will present arguments? I kind of expect that, because they each filed briefs.

 

Remember Shepard was a case supported by NRA and ISRA. Moore was a case supported by SAF and Illinois Carry. And from reading both of "our" briefs ... it seems clear they were working together on this!

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