CCL Totals - Nonresident and Resident - Sep 2015

[kwc]

See table below for September nonresident and resident CCL totals, obtained via FOIA request to the ISP.

 

 

 

Last month's totals are presented in this thread.

 

 

The table below is a summary of cumulative total CCLs (gathered via FOIA requests) beginning with my first inquiry in Aug 2014. I didn't start requesting resident totals until Dec 2014, hence the gaps in the data set.

 

 

 

 

Some observations:

• The jump from 14 to 18 nonresident licenses is a result of ISP approving 4 additional CCLs from the pool of Virginia applicants.
• Fewer CCLs were issued over the past month than several of the previous months.
• The backlog of CCLs awaiting CCLRB review continues to climb (from 1371 in Aug to 1465 at present).
• Another 29 licenses have been revoked since the August report. Note that ISP classifies revocations differently than cancellations, with the former driven by such things as legal problems and mental illnesses and the latter a result of moves out of state, deaths, voluntary submissions, etc.

[DoverGunner]

In the top graph South Carolina says 3 applicants with 2 males and 2 Females have been issued . In my math 2+2= 4 applicants HMMMMM makes me wonder

[kwc]

In the top graph South Carolina says 3 applicants with 2 males and 2 Females have been issued . In my math 2+2= 4 applicants HMMMMM makes me wonder

 

 

Look again--I think you're reading it wrong. In SC, out of 3 applicants to date, 2 licenses have been issued so far: 2 males, 0 females. In my math 2+0=2. :-)

[ChicagoRonin70]

So, with these new totals, 131,142 total licensees minus the 91,753 through the end of 2014 makes a huge drop from last month's gain of 7,470 new licenses granted, only adding 3,611 new ones in the past 30 days. That's not only 1.5 times fewer than last month's big jump in granted licenses, it means the ratio of denied to granted licenses for this month doubles from .006 to .012 denied per license granted. The new count of 39,389 licenses in the 253 days this year also drops the new end-year projected total licenses granted since the process started to 148,580 or so. Even the increase in licensees waiting for CCLRB review don't account for that big drop-off in granted licenses. Even the number of applicants waiting for normal approval is down, from about 16,000 two months ago to under 13,000 last month and month. Going back, it also looks like the average number of new applicants monthly has been well under 4,000 per month for the past several months, as well.

 

Are we hitting the wall of lack of interest/lack of financial means that was predicted would start slowing down the number of licenses already? This kind of turn around from a banner month like last month is kind of annoying at best, problematic and disheartening at worst. I hope that there is another surge and things start picking up, otherwise that is going to be very disappointing!

 

Incidentally, I've talked to some researchers I know, former statistician and economist clients of mine who are actually studying the firearm ownership phenomenon, and was told that after the first two to 2.5 years, the application rate drops precipitously, by as much as 90 percent. So, I'm wondering is just when the initial rush to carry will fade from the level of thousands monthly to hundreds, as normally happens with concealed carry licenses after the new issuing period? Hopefully this is just a fluke, or we may get to that point sooner rather than later, alas.

 

D@mn it, last month I was getting really excited about all the new concealed carriers out there. Now they go ahead and burst my bubble. Not cool. Maybe I can put on my tinfoil hat and figure out if it's a burgeoning conspiracy by some group or power in the state to mess with us carry supporters.

 

To the Kook-mobile, Batty-man!

[DoverGunner]

 

In the top graph South Carolina says 3 applicants with 2 males and 2 Females have been issued . In my math 2+2= 4 applicants HMMMMM makes me wonder

 

 

Look again--I think you're reading it wrong. In SC, out of 3 applicants to date, 2 licenses have been issued so far: 2 males, 0 females. In my math 2+0=2. :-)

 

Yep my bad I miss read it . And if you think that was bad , you know why I am not allowed to read blue prints

[Hipshot Percussion]

I would be curious to know if any of those 273 revocations were originally 'under board review' - approved, issued and then revoked at a later date.

[kwc]

And if you think that was bad , you know why I am not allowed to read blue prints

 

 

Your print looks purple to me.

[OrlandInstructor]

Thanks for the update. It's nice having this information to share with students in class.

[DD123]

I would be curious to know if any of those 273 revocations were originally 'under board review' - approved, issued and then revoked at a later date.

That would actually be a really interesting datapoint.

[Hap]

Are we hitting the wall of lack of interest/lack of financial means that was predicted would start slowing down the number of licenses already? This kind of turn around from a banner month like last month is kind of annoying at best, problematic and disheartening at worst. I hope that there is another surge and things start picking up, otherwise that is going to be very disappointing!

 

Incidentally, I've talked to some researchers I know, former statistician and economist clients of mine who are actually studying the firearm ownership phenomenon, and was told that after the first two to 2.5 years, the application rate drops precipitously, by as much as 90 percent. So, I'm wondering is just when the initial rush to carry will fade from the level of thousands monthly to hundreds, as normally happens with concealed carry licenses after the new issuing period? Hopefully this is just a fluke, or we may get to that point sooner rather than later, alas.

 

It's easy to focus on Illinois and to read a lot into month-to-month fluctuations. It may be helpful to take a few steps back and look at what's happened in other states - one of the advantages of being the last in the nation being that there's a lot of data from other states. For example, here's a chart of Minnesota permit counts dating back to when their carry law was first passed (original at madfi.org):

 

 

The chart shows a steady growth in permit numbers from 2003 to the present, with a marked acceleration over the past couple of years.

 

Oh - that "plateau" in 2004-2005? Not due to lack of interest. The law was challenged in court and no carry permits were issued during that interval. When the challenge failed, things quickly returned to normal.

[LannyH]

_{when an out of state does apply do they have to go though our training and background checks}

[ChicagoRonin70]

 

Are we hitting the wall of lack of interest/lack of financial means that was predicted would start slowing down the number of licenses already? This kind of turn around from a banner month like last month is kind of annoying at best, problematic and disheartening at worst. I hope that there is another surge and things start picking up, otherwise that is going to be very disappointing!

 

Incidentally, I've talked to some researchers I know, former statistician and economist clients of mine who are actually studying the firearm ownership phenomenon, and was told that after the first two to 2.5 years, the application rate drops precipitously, by as much as 90 percent. So, I'm wondering is just when the initial rush to carry will fade from the level of thousands monthly to hundreds, as normally happens with concealed carry licenses after the new issuing period? Hopefully this is just a fluke, or we may get to that point sooner rather than later, alas.

 

It's easy to focus on Illinois and to read a lot into month-to-month fluctuations. It may be helpful to take a few steps back and look at what's happened in other states - one of the advantages of being the last in the nation being that there's a lot of data from other states. For example, here's a chart of Minnesota permit counts dating back to when their carry law was first passed (original at madfi.org):

 

MN-permits-by-year.png

 

The chart shows a steady growth in permit numbers from 2003 to the present, with a marked acceleration over the past couple of years.

 

Oh - that "plateau" in 2004-2005? Not due to lack of interest. The law was challenged in court and no carry permits were issued during that interval. When the challenge failed, things quickly returned to normal.

 

 

Minnesota was something of an anomaly in that they experienced pretty much the opposite of what seems to have gone on with a lot of other states for a while. However, the recent-years spikes that show in that graph you posted are apparently becoming more common as attitudes about firearm ownership change and, ironically, the efforts of anti-firearm advocates screaming for banning after shooting incidents spur on-the-fence folks to rush to buy firearms and get licensed to carry before any potential restrictions are put in place.

 

Illinois, however, is a state where there are some pretty significant lower-income populations, as well as a higher than average population with disqualifying conditions (due to the prevalence of crime and the stringency of the CCL law, among other things), so it's more likely that we would fall into the fewer licenses granted taper faster than states with less onerous obstacles against firearm carry and ownership.

 

Gotta love Illinois efforts to determinedly be backward and obstructionist.