ISP Statistical Analysis- August, 2021 Processing Data- CCL, FOID, and NICS

[Molly B.]

With the release of the August, 2021 processing activity, attached are two analysis of data provided on the Illinois State Police (ISP) Statistics Web page (https://isp.illinois.gov/Foid/Statistics. Analysis provided by friend of IllinoisCarry.

 

Some quick notes on the overall analysis:

·  The overall estimated backlog for August, 2021 showed a significant decrease.

·  A comparison between August, 2020 and August,  2021 shows an increase in FOID (new and renewal), CCL new, and FTIP processing of over 123%.

·  Average days to new FOID applications hit over 258 days. The overall estimated new FOID application backlog is calculated at 63,614.

·  In August, 2021, the ISP did not show any NICS inquiry rechecks.

·  Illinois maintains its lead in NICS inquiries by submitting (2021 year to date) over 25% of all NICS inquiries.

A summary of the backlog activity is:

Analysis for August, 2021	New Aps /  Trans Received			Processed			Estimated Backlog			Notes:
	Current Month	Prior Month	% Change	Current Month	Prior Month	% Change	Current Month	Prior Month	% Change
FOID New Applications	9,514	11,522	(17.4)	29,530	16,178	82.5	63,614	83,630	(23.9)
FOID Renewal Applications	10,540	12,683	(16.9)	76,812	10,436	636.0	(7,321)	58,951	(112.4)
CCL New Applications	2,632	3,479	(24.3)	11,132	9,362	18.9	8,549	15,830	(46.0)
CCL Renewal Applications	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Not reported by ISP
FTIPS Transactions	35,364	34,345	3.0	35,364	34,345	3.0	-	-	-
Portfolio	58,050	62,029	(6.4)	152,838	70,321	117.3	64,842	158,411	(59.1)

 

 

A comparison of activity between this year and last year:

Analysis for August, 2021 Compared to August, 2020	New Aps /  Trans Received			Processed			Notes:
	Current Month Current Yr.	Current Month Prior Yr.	% Change	Current Month Current Yr.	Current Month Prior Yr.	% Change
FOID New Applications	9,514	30,719	(69.0)	29,530	17,701	66.8
FOID Renewal Applications	10,540	13,596	(22.5)	76,812	3,137	2348.6
CCL New Applications	2,632	7,501	(64.9)	11,132	3,488	219.2
CCL Renewal Applications	-	-	-	-	-	-	Not reported by ISP
FTIPS Transactions	35,364	44,142	(19.9)	35,364	44,142	(19.9)
Portfolio	58,050	95,958	(39.5)	152,838	68,468	123.2

 

 

In an effort to reconcile the backlog calculated in the analysis and what the ISP calculates, and occasionally publishes as a backlog, a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request was submitted to the ISP relating to the backlogs. The ISP responded noting that the total FOID backlog (open processing greater than 30 days since receipt) of 165,534 as of April, 30, 2021. In the analysis, the total calculated backlog is 168,409 as of April 30, 2021. ISP did not break the backlog between New and Renewal applications. As the difference of 2,875 is just 1.71%  of the calculated backlog, the difference can be viewed as immaterial and a validation of the backlog calculation methodology. Until the ISP can break out the backlog between new and renewal applications, due to the immaterial nature of the difference, an adjustment will not be made to the backlog in this analysis.

 

 

Average Processing Time

Changes between July, 2021 and August, 2021 are:

	Aug, 2021	Jul, 2021	Difference	% Change
New FOID application Average Processing Time (Days)	196.74	188.95	7.79	4.12
Renewal FOID application Average Processing Time (Days)	258.16	143.82	114.34	79.50
New Non-Fingerprint CCL Average Processing Time (Days)	167.00	143.74	23.26	16.18
New Fingerprint CCL Average Processing Time (Days)	136.44	131.79	4.65	3.53
FTIP Average Processing Time (Hours)	7.75	23.30	(15.55)	(66.74)

 

 

National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) Illinois State Police data analysis

Included is an analysis of ISP related NICS data. A summary of activity:

	Current Month to Prior Month			Month- Current Year to Prior Year			YTD- Current Year to Prior Year
NICS Analysis for August, 2021	Month [08-2021]	Month [07-2021]	% Change	Month [08-2021]	Month [08-2020]	% Change	YTD [08-2021]	YTD [08-2020]	% Change
Permit- IL	385,196	357,709	7.7	385,196	39,261	881.1	872,042	277,083	214.7
Transfers- IL	41,367	55,887	(26.0)	41,367	43,652	(5.2)	359,183	366,275	(1.9)
Permit Recheck- IL	-	243,182	(100.0)	-	504,311	(100.0)	5,902,820	4,536,315	30.1
Total	426,563	656,778	(35.1)	426,563	587,224	(27.4)	7,134,045	5,179,673	37.7

 

 

	Aug-2021
NICS Analysis for Aug-2021	IL Only	All NICS	IL as a % of All NICS
Prior Month	656,778	2,860,476	22.96
Current Month	426,563	2,697,234	15.81
Current Month YTD	7,134,045	27,620,438	25.83
YTD Prior Year (Aug-2020)	5,179,673	25,692,044	20.16

 

 

 

Overall Analysis Notes

Overview:

This is an analysis of the Illinois State Police (ISP) information for new Firearm Owners Identification (FOID) applications, new Concealed Carry License (CCL) applications, and Firearms Transfer Inquiry Program (FTIP) transactions. The purpose of the analysis is to independently “re-calculate”/ verify the backlog of FOID and CCL applications from information published by the ISP. Due to the limitation of data made available by the ISP, a majority of the analysis focuses on new FOID, renewal FOID, and new CCL applications. FTIP transactions are added into the analysis as similar data is analyzed and similar resources may be used to analyze FOID, CCL, and FTIP items.

 

Methodology/Constraints:

Due to data availability, the initial calculation of the backlogs for new FOIL and CCL applications starts in January, 2020. For Renewal FOID applications, the calculation starts in March, 2020 to coincide with the publication of data. To calculate the backlog, the number of new applications received is reduced by the number of decisions, approved or denied, given.  Subsequent monthly backlogs (new applications less approved and denied applications) are then included in the initial backlog to determine the cumulative backlog. Please note that the overall cumulative backlog is probably understated, but this methodology, when applied over time, will show the overall status (or trend) of a backlog. As this analysis has been ongoing, information has been requested either directly from ISP or via Illinois Legislature representatives’ offices.

 

Information requested/provided:

Actual backlog (estimate) of new FOID applications (requested- not received)- Total FOID (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 165,534 (Via FOIA request)

Actual backlog (estimate) of renewal FOID applications (requested-not received)- Total FOID (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 165,534 (Via FOIA request)

Actual backlog (estimate) of new CCL applications (requested-not received)- Total CCL (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 39,646 (Via FOIA request)

Actual backlog (estimate) of renewal CCL applications (requested-not received)- Total CCL (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 39,646 (Via FOIA request)

Web page error of CCL application historical processing- 2019 (provided to ISP- no feedback received)

 

Potential Information Needed:

With the anticipated addition of Analysts, some information that may be beneficial in the future is the actual number of Analysts or hours spent on each application/ transaction type. This information could show operational efficiencies of the resource allocation applied to each application/ transaction type processed.

[Molly B.]

[Plinkermostly]

Molly always comes through when it 'counts.'

[Molly B.]

On 9/14/2021 at 7:06 AM, Plinkermostly said:

Molly always comes through when it 'counts.'

 

 

I do like seeing the numbers!  But credit for analysis goes to a friend of IllinoisCarry who does a good job of making sense of the numbers!

[SiliconSorcerer]

I was wondering if there will be analysis / commentary of last August vs this August. 

Have we reached saturation or complacency? 

[Molly B.]

On 9/14/2021 at 7:47 AM, SiliconSorcerer said:

I was wondering if there will be analysis / commentary of last August vs this August. 

Have we reached saturation or complacency? 

 

 

This?

 

Analysis for August, 2021 Compared to August, 2020	New Aps /  Trans Received			Processed			Notes:
	Current Month Current Yr.	Current Month Prior Yr.	% Change	Current Month Current Yr.	Current Month Prior Yr.	% Change
FOID New Applications	9,514	30,719	(69.0)	29,530	17,701	66.8
FOID Renewal Applications	10,540	13,596	(22.5)	76,812	3,137	2348.6
CCL New Applications	2,632	7,501	(64.9)	11,132	3,488	219.2
CCL Renewal Applications	-	-	-	-	-	-	Not reported by ISP
FTIPS Transactions	35,364	44,142	(19.9)	35,364	44,142	(19.9)
Portfolio	58,050	95,958	(39.5)	152,838	68,468	123.2

[Molly B.]

[Lou]

This is some really good information.  Thanks to the devoted member who put this together.  

[SiliconSorcerer]

This year vs last, saturation or complacency.  That was my question asking for commentary.  Whole lot less people applying (in IL).  

 

FOID New Applications

9,514

30,719

[Stats]

On 9/14/2021 at 2:00 PM, SiliconSorcerer said:

 

This year vs last, saturation or complacency.  That was my question asking for commentary.  Whole lot less people applying (in IL).  

 

FOID New Applications

9,514

30,719

 

I think that the complacency/ saturation (or even frustration) alignment would be your commentary. I am not currently aware of any polls in Illinois for prospective gunowners that would measure complacency or saturation. We know that since January, 2020 the Illinois State Police have processed about 380,000 new FOID applications. The media has also noted an increase in first time gun buyers do to “civil unrest” and/or “COVID19”. We do know that approximately 18% of Illinoisans have a FOID card whereas some polls indicate that about 30% of all Americans are gun owners. We also know that the average processing time for new FOID applications has been steadily increasing from level defined by some administrators as “unacceptable” in December, 2020. I am not sure if any of the statistics provided by the Illinois State Police would point to any single correlation of complacency or saturation (or frustration).

 

Month/ Year	New FOID Application Ave. Processing Time (Days)	Statutory "Requirement"	Days in Excess of "Requirement"	% of Excess days over Statutory "Requirement"	Notes
02/2021	118.89	30	88.89	296.3
03/2021	126.35	30	96.35	321.2
04/2021	140.39	30	110.39	368.0
05/2021	206.84	30	176.84	589.5
06/2021	n/a	30	-	-	Not published
07/2021	188.95	30	158.95	529.8
08/2021	196.74	30	166.74	555.8

 

 

[SiliconSorcerer]

thanks Stats, your first post