Molly B. Posted September 13, 2021 at 10:01 PM Posted September 13, 2021 at 10:01 PM With the release of the August, 2021 processing activity, attached are two analysis of data provided on the Illinois State Police (ISP) Statistics Web page (https://isp.illinois.gov/Foid/Statistics. Analysis provided by friend of IllinoisCarry. Some quick notes on the overall analysis: · The overall estimated backlog for August, 2021 showed a significant decrease. · A comparison between August, 2020 and August, 2021 shows an increase in FOID (new and renewal), CCL new, and FTIP processing of over 123%. · Average days to new FOID applications hit over 258 days. The overall estimated new FOID application backlog is calculated at 63,614. · In August, 2021, the ISP did not show any NICS inquiry rechecks. · Illinois maintains its lead in NICS inquiries by submitting (2021 year to date) over 25% of all NICS inquiries. A summary of the backlog activity is: Analysis for August, 2021 New Aps / Trans Received Processed Estimated Backlog Notes: Current Month Prior Month % Change Current Month Prior Month % Change Current Month Prior Month % Change FOID New Applications 9,514 11,522 (17.4) 29,530 16,178 82.5 63,614 83,630 (23.9) FOID Renewal Applications 10,540 12,683 (16.9) 76,812 10,436 636.0 (7,321) 58,951 (112.4) CCL New Applications 2,632 3,479 (24.3) 11,132 9,362 18.9 8,549 15,830 (46.0) CCL Renewal Applications - - - - - - - - - Not reported by ISP FTIPS Transactions 35,364 34,345 3.0 35,364 34,345 3.0 - - - Portfolio 58,050 62,029 (6.4) 152,838 70,321 117.3 64,842 158,411 (59.1) A comparison of activity between this year and last year: Analysis for August, 2021 Compared to August, 2020 New Aps / Trans Received Processed Notes: Current Month Current Yr. Current Month Prior Yr. % Change Current Month Current Yr. Current Month Prior Yr. % Change FOID New Applications 9,514 30,719 (69.0) 29,530 17,701 66.8 FOID Renewal Applications 10,540 13,596 (22.5) 76,812 3,137 2348.6 CCL New Applications 2,632 7,501 (64.9) 11,132 3,488 219.2 CCL Renewal Applications - - - - - - Not reported by ISP FTIPS Transactions 35,364 44,142 (19.9) 35,364 44,142 (19.9) Portfolio 58,050 95,958 (39.5) 152,838 68,468 123.2 In an effort to reconcile the backlog calculated in the analysis and what the ISP calculates, and occasionally publishes as a backlog, a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request was submitted to the ISP relating to the backlogs. The ISP responded noting that the total FOID backlog (open processing greater than 30 days since receipt) of 165,534 as of April, 30, 2021. In the analysis, the total calculated backlog is 168,409 as of April 30, 2021. ISP did not break the backlog between New and Renewal applications. As the difference of 2,875 is just 1.71% of the calculated backlog, the difference can be viewed as immaterial and a validation of the backlog calculation methodology. Until the ISP can break out the backlog between new and renewal applications, due to the immaterial nature of the difference, an adjustment will not be made to the backlog in this analysis. Average Processing Time Changes between July, 2021 and August, 2021 are: Aug, 2021 Jul, 2021 Difference % Change New FOID application Average Processing Time (Days) 196.74 188.95 7.79 4.12 Renewal FOID application Average Processing Time (Days) 258.16 143.82 114.34 79.50 New Non-Fingerprint CCL Average Processing Time (Days) 167.00 143.74 23.26 16.18 New Fingerprint CCL Average Processing Time (Days) 136.44 131.79 4.65 3.53 FTIP Average Processing Time (Hours) 7.75 23.30 (15.55) (66.74) National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) Illinois State Police data analysis Included is an analysis of ISP related NICS data. A summary of activity: Current Month to Prior Month Month- Current Year to Prior Year YTD- Current Year to Prior Year NICS Analysis for August, 2021 Month [08-2021] Month [07-2021] % Change Month [08-2021] Month [08-2020] % Change YTD [08-2021] YTD [08-2020] % Change Permit- IL 385,196 357,709 7.7 385,196 39,261 881.1 872,042 277,083 214.7 Transfers- IL 41,367 55,887 (26.0) 41,367 43,652 (5.2) 359,183 366,275 (1.9) Permit Recheck- IL - 243,182 (100.0) - 504,311 (100.0) 5,902,820 4,536,315 30.1 Total 426,563 656,778 (35.1) 426,563 587,224 (27.4) 7,134,045 5,179,673 37.7 Aug-2021 NICS Analysis for Aug-2021 IL Only All NICS IL as a % of All NICS Prior Month 656,778 2,860,476 22.96 Current Month 426,563 2,697,234 15.81 Current Month YTD 7,134,045 27,620,438 25.83 YTD Prior Year (Aug-2020) 5,179,673 25,692,044 20.16 Overall Analysis Notes Overview: This is an analysis of the Illinois State Police (ISP) information for new Firearm Owners Identification (FOID) applications, new Concealed Carry License (CCL) applications, and Firearms Transfer Inquiry Program (FTIP) transactions. The purpose of the analysis is to independently “re-calculate”/ verify the backlog of FOID and CCL applications from information published by the ISP. Due to the limitation of data made available by the ISP, a majority of the analysis focuses on new FOID, renewal FOID, and new CCL applications. FTIP transactions are added into the analysis as similar data is analyzed and similar resources may be used to analyze FOID, CCL, and FTIP items. Methodology/Constraints: Due to data availability, the initial calculation of the backlogs for new FOIL and CCL applications starts in January, 2020. For Renewal FOID applications, the calculation starts in March, 2020 to coincide with the publication of data. To calculate the backlog, the number of new applications received is reduced by the number of decisions, approved or denied, given. Subsequent monthly backlogs (new applications less approved and denied applications) are then included in the initial backlog to determine the cumulative backlog. Please note that the overall cumulative backlog is probably understated, but this methodology, when applied over time, will show the overall status (or trend) of a backlog. As this analysis has been ongoing, information has been requested either directly from ISP or via Illinois Legislature representatives’ offices. Information requested/provided: Actual backlog (estimate) of new FOID applications (requested- not received)- Total FOID (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 165,534 (Via FOIA request) Actual backlog (estimate) of renewal FOID applications (requested-not received)- Total FOID (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 165,534 (Via FOIA request) Actual backlog (estimate) of new CCL applications (requested-not received)- Total CCL (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 39,646 (Via FOIA request) Actual backlog (estimate) of renewal CCL applications (requested-not received)- Total CCL (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 39,646 (Via FOIA request) Web page error of CCL application historical processing- 2019 (provided to ISP- no feedback received) Potential Information Needed: With the anticipated addition of Analysts, some information that may be beneficial in the future is the actual number of Analysts or hours spent on each application/ transaction type. This information could show operational efficiencies of the resource allocation applied to each application/ transaction type processed.
Plinkermostly Posted September 14, 2021 at 12:06 PM Posted September 14, 2021 at 12:06 PM Molly always comes through when it 'counts.'
Molly B. Posted September 14, 2021 at 12:39 PM Author Posted September 14, 2021 at 12:39 PM On 9/14/2021 at 7:06 AM, Plinkermostly said: Molly always comes through when it 'counts.' I do like seeing the numbers! But credit for analysis goes to a friend of IllinoisCarry who does a good job of making sense of the numbers!
SiliconSorcerer Posted September 14, 2021 at 12:47 PM Posted September 14, 2021 at 12:47 PM I was wondering if there will be analysis / commentary of last August vs this August. Have we reached saturation or complacency?
Molly B. Posted September 14, 2021 at 04:50 PM Author Posted September 14, 2021 at 04:50 PM On 9/14/2021 at 7:47 AM, SiliconSorcerer said: I was wondering if there will be analysis / commentary of last August vs this August. Have we reached saturation or complacency? This? Analysis for August, 2021 Compared to August, 2020 New Aps / Trans Received Processed Notes: Current Month Current Yr. Current Month Prior Yr. % Change Current Month Current Yr. Current Month Prior Yr. % Change FOID New Applications 9,514 30,719 (69.0) 29,530 17,701 66.8 FOID Renewal Applications 10,540 13,596 (22.5) 76,812 3,137 2348.6 CCL New Applications 2,632 7,501 (64.9) 11,132 3,488 219.2 CCL Renewal Applications - - - - - - Not reported by ISP FTIPS Transactions 35,364 44,142 (19.9) 35,364 44,142 (19.9) Portfolio 58,050 95,958 (39.5) 152,838 68,468 123.2
Lou Posted September 14, 2021 at 05:55 PM Posted September 14, 2021 at 05:55 PM This is some really good information. Thanks to the devoted member who put this together.
SiliconSorcerer Posted September 14, 2021 at 07:00 PM Posted September 14, 2021 at 07:00 PM This year vs last, saturation or complacency. That was my question asking for commentary. Whole lot less people applying (in IL). FOID New Applications 9,514 30,719
Stats Posted September 15, 2021 at 03:36 PM Posted September 15, 2021 at 03:36 PM On 9/14/2021 at 2:00 PM, SiliconSorcerer said: This year vs last, saturation or complacency. That was my question asking for commentary. Whole lot less people applying (in IL). FOID New Applications 9,514 30,719 I think that the complacency/ saturation (or even frustration) alignment would be your commentary. I am not currently aware of any polls in Illinois for prospective gunowners that would measure complacency or saturation. We know that since January, 2020 the Illinois State Police have processed about 380,000 new FOID applications. The media has also noted an increase in first time gun buyers do to “civil unrest” and/or “COVID19”. We do know that approximately 18% of Illinoisans have a FOID card whereas some polls indicate that about 30% of all Americans are gun owners. We also know that the average processing time for new FOID applications has been steadily increasing from level defined by some administrators as “unacceptable” in December, 2020. I am not sure if any of the statistics provided by the Illinois State Police would point to any single correlation of complacency or saturation (or frustration). Month/ Year New FOID Application Ave. Processing Time (Days) Statutory "Requirement" Days in Excess of "Requirement" % of Excess days over Statutory "Requirement" Notes 02/2021 118.89 30 88.89 296.3 03/2021 126.35 30 96.35 321.2 04/2021 140.39 30 110.39 368.0 05/2021 206.84 30 176.84 589.5 06/2021 n/a 30 - - Not published 07/2021 188.95 30 158.95 529.8 08/2021 196.74 30 166.74 555.8
SiliconSorcerer Posted September 15, 2021 at 04:41 PM Posted September 15, 2021 at 04:41 PM thanks Stats, your first post
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.