Update from behind the scenes

[abolt243]

Ladies and Gents,

 

I received the following information in an e-mail from a very trusted source. The ID of the author can't be revealed for fear of losing their contacts and confidence of many insiders. This is as it was sent to me, untouched except to cut and paste. Keep up the pressure, looks like we're on our way to striking a huge blow FOR gun rights in Illinois in less than two weeks!!

 

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News from the Front….

Brady continues to lead Quinn in all but Chicago. Polling has Brady with a larger share of his base than Quinn does by about 10pts. At the current rate, Quinn will need to do at least 70% in Chicago and win Cook by close to 500,000 votes to carry the day. Brady is performing well in the Collars, better than previous republican candidates.

In the House republicans continue to claim they are in the hunt for the majority. They now say they are playing in 16 races as a couple more SOLID dem seats have been targeted.

They claim to have put Careen Gordon away in Dist -75. Dems claim to have turned a corner. Bet she is gone. Gordon seems to have problems with the Kinzinger wave that is running through the 11^th Congressional Dist. +1 (R + 1 D -1)

They contend that Rep. Flider is gone as well. Dems hav been saying they have problems in this district for some time. +1 (R+2 D-2)

Rs are projecting Ruth Munson will Best Keith Farnham in Dist-43. Farnham was a pick up in the wave two years ago and looks like he might ride a wave out. Independent polling is less sure, but it is playing into the 22^nd Senate race. +.5 (R+2.5 D – 2.5)

Another Dem freshman they claim to have down is Rep. Mark Walker in Dist 66. Another of the 2008 wave, dems are fighting back, but looks like Rs will retake this seat. +1 (R+3.5 D-3.5)Dist – 98 .

 

Gary Hannig left this seat to be the Secretary of IDOT. His wife took his spot and is not running making this an open seat. Dems have been hammering away at this race, but it seems to be a double edged coin…

 

The success of the repubs in the House fueled a challenge to Senator Demuzio. And the highly charged Senate race is motivating dems in the Landers/Rosenthal race. Latest reports say it may be a slug fest to the end but rumors persist that dems have pulled staff out and are circling the wagons up north. Republicans say they have this one in the bag. +1 (R+4.5 D – 4.5)

Mike Smith 91, has long been a target of the repubs. This year they may just get him. Dems think they stopped the bleeding, but Repubs claim to have them on the ropes. +.5 (R+5 D-5)

Paul Froehlich is leaving making this another open seat. Repubs have the advantage in this seat going away. +1 (R+6 D-6)

Repubs claim to be closing in on Fred Crespo who took a seat from them a couple of elections ago. With a Mayor running on her home turf we'll see. The dems seem to be holding on, lets call this a toss up.

Carole Sente replaced Cathy Ryg in the 59^th. It has come on the radar screen as polling has it even. The speaker has paid for 5 mailings in this district and the young Sugrue as gained endorsements of two newspapers and some local mayors. Looks like Madigan may be moving staff in to try and circle the wagons to hold 60 seats for the majority. If it stays in the margin of error, this could be a pick up from the trending wave +.5 (R+6.5 D-6.5)

Emily McAsey beat Brent Hassert two years ago. Now the 85^th maybe in play again as the republican was recruited by the mayor of Bolingbrook. If he is on board, then they could pick this up. While repubs say they are in the margin, independent polling says not so much. However another seante seat complicates another house race, as AJ Wilhemi who is up against a tea party candidate made by dems trying to kick her off the ballot. The other half of the district is solid dem, so the senate seat could be won or lost in this end. If they go republican, will they do so in the house race as well? Give the edge to McAsey, but watch this race +0

The 71^st district is in sold dem country. But a good county board candidate leading the fight against county board pay raises has lit a fuse. Plus you have the benefit of the Shilling campaign where a SAFE dem congressional district is now up for grabs with some polls having Hare loosing. Sources say Hare's own polls only have him up by 2. Reports are the dems have pulled out. Looks like a pick up for team Cross. +1 (R+7.5 D-7.5)

Kevin McCarthy has been wanted by the repubs for some time. This year they have a young candidate who just may do it. But McCarthy is well liked in the district. Repubs think they have this one on ethe ropes, but dems say not so. Call it a toss up.+0

As part of the 11^th CD footprint the 79^th district is getting tight as election day looms. Repubs say that they are within striking distance on this one and hope to catch the Kinzinger wave. Dems say the race has tightened but she'll be fine. +0 If it goes, then the wave is bigger than '94.

Jay Hoffman was the Blago floor leader in the House. Now the 112^th may be in play as Bill Brady is winning dem strong hold Madision county. Hoffman has gone up with large TV buys in the St. Louis area. If this one goes, it's gonna be a big night for the repubs. Toss up?

17th district was represented by Beth Coulson. She lost a primary for congress and will be out the door. Dems have a second time candidate with Biss who has raised lots of money. Looks like the repubs could lose this one. It may be affected by the 10^th CD with Seals/Dold dems seem energized in this one district -1 (R+6.5 D-6.5)

If you add in the .5 chances and the toss ups then the Republicans are on the verge of claiming the House. But at the minimum they look to take 6 seats. Maybe more…

 

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AB

[junglebob]

I was in the office of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute yesterday, they took a poll between September 30 and October 10 that showed that respondents showed Brady getting 38.4% of the vote to Quinns 29.8%.

 

This was among "likely voters". I always wondered how they determined likely voters. Its explained as following-

The survey of 1,000 registered voters was taken September 30 to Oct. 10 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. It found that 758 were classified as likely voters. Few polls of the Illinois contests have sample sizes as large as this one. The margin of error among likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The numbers in this release are those for likely voters.

 

Results from the entire sample have a statistical margin for error of 3 percentage pints at the 95% confidence level. This means that if we were to conduct the survey 100 times, in 95 of those instance the results would vary by no more than plus or minus 3 pints for the results obtained here. The margin for error will be larger for demographic, geographic and response subgroups.

 

Likely voters are respondents who passed a two-question "screen": first, that they were absolutely certain to vote, and second, that they knew exactly where their polling place was.

 

This makes me think does everyone know where the polling place is for you precinct? If you have any doubt call your County Clerk at your County Court house. Often it is always the same place, but sometimes it is in a church or other place which may decide not to be a polling place even though they have in the past. I think my polling place has been at maybe a half dozen places over the years. I remember going to where I thought the polling place was one election shortly before the polls were to close, only find it had moved and there was not enough time to get to the new location. Don't let this happen, unless you aren't voting for Brady.

 

If you aren't voting for Brady please note that because of the high expected turn out Quinn ballots will be taken on November 3 and those for Brady November 2. Please show up to vote at your voting place November 3, if you are voting for Quinn :http://illinoiscarry.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)

[ilphil]

Very interesting analysis. I wonder if your source also has similiar insight into the state Senate races?

Based of the nasty turn the mailing from both sides have taken in recent weeks I think this race is VERY tight...

[Xwing]

Interesting update. If Republicans could take the house, that would be huge, but still sounds like a bit of a long shot.