Hypothetical thoughts on the upcoming political theater

[chidiver]

So we're down to Madigan's bill and Raoul's bill in the Senate with Madigan making a pretty bold power play against Cullerton, Quinn and Rahm. What will the next couple of days bring (besides bigger holes in both my stomach and liquor cabinet)? Because the powerplay aspect of this is pretty huge and I think the political theater is FAR from over.

 

1. Madigan's play works as scripted..Raoul guts Madigan bill-fails, Senate passes Maddy's bill. Quinn weeps over the ruin of his career.

 

2. Here's a fun question..don't you think the political gun grabbers would prefer the original 997 (as is..no changes/"fixes") to the current bill? They retain power, beat Madigan at his own game, keep silly homerule registration/tax laws (for now!) BUT make downstate happy with real, statewide shall-issue carry. Madigan's bill is interesting..it isn't a big CC victory for us, but it IS a crushing political defeat for the gun grabbers. I think this might be the politically brilliant countermove against Madigan and its the lesser of two evils from their power-wielding point of view. Unfortunately, I don't think they can put their gun grabbiness and NRA hatred aside for this interesting play and would try to "fix" the bill..thereby dooming it (and Madigan knows this).

 

3. What's the wildcard play? Pensions? Casinos? Does Madigan screw us on carry somehow at the 11th hour? I don't think so since he played this pretty openly and any give on his part would=weakness, but who knows?

 

Should be interesting.

 

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[03rev]

It will still have to pass a vote in the house. I think madigan has proven his that will go.

[Trevis]

I think this 'victory" wil; likely have a lot of hidden cost, politically and financially. That's the illinois way.

[chidiver]

Well maybe I should pose the hypothetical this way...If Raoul were to amend his bill to be the exact text of 997 with no edits, which would you support and why?

 

"It'll never happen" is correct, but no fun..so its not allowed as an answer. I have a feeling this will breakdown as Chicago residents preferring the current bill and everyone else preferring 997.

 

What would happen in the House? Divide and conquer indeed!

 

Now where's my Tums?

 

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[KarlJ]

I don't know that I'd call it a power play. I think it's just common sense.

Look at the numbers on may vs. shall. Madigan himself even pointed it out. He even goes on to say that after the arm twisting they still had over 60 votes for shall issue.

It's simple math and madigan is just being realistic on a serious matter. There isn't enough votes for may issue.

So if we're going to have shall issue than it has to preempt home rule. Again, that's just using common sense. Illinois can't pass a law for its citizens and expect us to have to potentially follow up to 220 variations of the law.

We're going to have shall issue with preemption or were not going to have a law.

The powers that be are not going to let concealed carry go with no law so it looks like they only have one choice.

Think about it.

If madigan couldn't sway may issue do you think Quinn and Co. can?

Kwame bill is dead and the bill that passed in the house can't be amended by the senate.

It's checkmate

[WindyCityGuy]

I am betting the Madigan included the elimination of Chicago/Cook county's AWB/CFP etc as something he can trade if he stalls in the Senate. He has shown Chicago what he can do and they have already backed off their Demands that Chicago has a different carry law as a result.

 

My prediction is the bill passes with preemption but they remove the provision that eliminates all home rule gun laws and Chicago keeps their AWB/ CFP crap.

[22cal]

This morning 780 a.m. radio had recording of Quinn saying that he's going to do everything in his power to stop this in the Senate. They say Monday but that's Memorial Day will they be working?

[handyflyer]

I am betting the Madigan included the elimination of Chicago/Cook county's AWB/CFP etc as something he can trade if he stalls in the Senate. He has shown Chicago what he can do and they have already backed off their Demands that Chicago has a different carry law as a result.

 

My prediction is the bill passes with preemption but they remove the provision that eliminates all home rule gun laws and Chicago keeps their AWB/ CFP crap.

I think you hit the nail right on the head.

[KarlJ]

This morning 780 a.m. radio had recording of Quinn saying that he's going to do everything in his power to stop this in the Senate. They say Monday but that's Memorial Day will they be working?

 

The senate is in session Monday.

Madiga, with all his power couldn't get may issue in the house and he openly admits it.

What could Quinn possibly accomplish?

He's just going through the motions.

[Phatty]

"The Cliff" is by far the most attractive option right now for Chicago. They could keep all of their gun laws and pass their own no-carry bill. Sure, it might be struck down by the courts in a few years, but that's still a lot of additional time they buy. And even if their own law gets tossed out, they keep home rule control over gun laws.

 

That's why the smartest play for them is to simply do everything they can to keep Madigan's bill from obtaining a super-majority in the Senate. Even if it means no carry law at all gets passed, they still come out on top.

[KarlJ]

I am betting the Madigan included the elimination of Chicago/Cook county's AWB/CFP etc as something he can trade if he stalls in the Senate. He has shown Chicago what he can do and they have already backed off their Demands that Chicago has a different carry law as a result.

 

My prediction is the bill passes with preemption but they remove the provision that eliminates all home rule gun laws and Chicago keeps their AWB/ CFP crap.

 

I think the bill will pass as is. It was a compromise to give Cook the restricted areas they wanted. We had to make some sacrifices and so does cook.

The gun laws in the state are going to have to be universal for it to work.

[Rabble]

I am betting the Madigan included the elimination of Chicago/Cook county's AWB/CFP etc as something he can trade if he stalls in the Senate. He has shown Chicago what he can do and they have already backed off their Demands that Chicago has a different carry law as a result.

 

My prediction is the bill passes with preemption but they remove the provision that eliminates all home rule gun laws and Chicago keeps their AWB/ CFP crap.

I think you hit the nail right on the head.

 

That is exactly what is going to happen. Probably via the Raoul bill, freshly amended. Madigan has proved he is boss, now he will dole out concessions as favors. So what is our position on that?

 

If all Dem factions unite on that, it's game set match.

[bigdiogi]

 

....If Raoul were to amend his bill to be the exact text of 997 with no edits, which would you support and why?

 

...

 

As much as I found to hate about this bill when I first perused it, I'll stick with 2193 (did get the number right, I hope.) It has grown on me, like that ugly little dog at the shelter.

 

Honestly, as a downstater, I'm not turning cartwheels about what the new bill gains me. But when you consider the national implications... This is a fight for our country's future, not just for where we can pack. Anything that punches a small hole in the statist balloon is cherries to me. Maybe Chicago will become the shining beacon for LA, Boston, and NY.

 

Hey, it could happen.

[03rev]

I'll add to the record I'm not from Chicago but I'll stick to 2193 also

[Chicago Guy 77]

I am betting the Madigan included the elimination of Chicago/Cook county's AWB/CFP etc as something he can trade if he stalls in the Senate. He has shown Chicago what he can do and they have already backed off their Demands that Chicago has a different carry law as a result.

 

My prediction is the bill passes with preemption but they remove the provision that eliminates all home rule gun laws and Chicago keeps their AWB/ CFP crap.

I think you hit the nail right on the head.

 

The Senate can't even add a amendment to this bill, so how can they remove the AWB/CFP? They can't! Either the Senate wait to call it for a vote to see if Their bill pass or just vote on this bill!

[chidiver]

I am betting the Madigan included the elimination of Chicago/Cook county's AWB/CFP etc as something he can trade if he stalls in the Senate. He has shown Chicago what he can do and they have already backed off their Demands that Chicago has a different carry law as a result.

 

My prediction is the bill passes with preemption but they remove the provision that eliminates all home rule gun laws and Chicago keeps their AWB/ CFP crap.

I think you hit the nail right on the head.

 

The Senate can't even add a amendment to this bill, so how can they remove the AWB/CFP? They can't! Either the Senate wait to call it for a vote to see if Their bill pass or just vote on this bill!

 

They can just strip and amend Raoul's bill. Pass it (if they can). Then send it to the house. There's lots of sneaky tools available. Just not a lot of time.

 

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[RoadyRunner]

We need to keep pressing the Senators to stop their may issue bill from being called for a vote. Technically, if they do that it would be sent to the house. However, they could amend it to match the new language - sending it back to the Senate for an up/down concurrence vote again. Two bills, same language.

 

It would be on Cullerton if we go over the cliff.

 

However, the Senate could gut any number of already approved House bills and replace with his language. That would arrive in the house for an up or down concurrence vote.

 

Then we have dueling bills - with the cliff approaching.

[vezpa]

Someone please tell Quinn that when you find yourself in a hole, quit digging.

 

.

[BackForward]

2. Here's a fun question..don't you think the political gun grabbers would prefer the original 997 (as is..no changes/"fixes") to the current bill? They retain power, beat Madigan at his own game, keep silly homerule registration/tax laws (for now!) BUT make downstate happy with real, statewide shall-issue carry. Madigan's bill is interesting..it isn't a big CC victory for us, but it IS a crushing political defeat for the gun grabbers. I think this might be the politically brilliant countermove against Madigan and its the lesser of two evils from their power-wielding point of view. Unfortunately, I don't think they can put their gun grabbiness and NRA hatred aside for this interesting play and would try to "fix" the bill..thereby dooming it (and Madigan knows this).

 

997 had the same shall issue/override home rule as the recent bill that passed, so there would be no gain for them to support that bill over Madigan's. Madigan was successful in making the bill as restrictive as he possibly could.

My guess is that they will bring the high cap mag ban bill up for a vote shortly, and/or Madigan will give is assurance that it will pass if they go along with his bill.

[SAXD9]

Raoul's bill is already a house bill. They could just add another amendment to that one and then send it to the house in order to have dueling bills.

[KarlJ]

The house only has 30 votes for a may issue bill. That fact has been emphasized by Speaker Madigan

Kwames bill is a no go

May issue is a no go

Supposedly the cliff is a no go

What's left is the bill that passed out of the house with 85 votes and the speakers praises.

This bill can not be amended. It's an up or down vote.

Any bans will have to be passed in a separate piece of legislation.

Y'all speculate all you want.

I see this as check mate.

SB2193 is the law of the land

[Elderberry]

don't you think the political gun grabbers would prefer the original 997 (as is..no changes/"fixes") to the current bill?

 

Great question.... Actually, I think a lot of them would now prefer 148....

 

A couple years back, during the drive to pass 148, I spent a few hours crafting and spending a letter to each and every member of the Illinois legislature. (That was one of about a 100 different letters that I sent during that process but this one went to ALL of them.) It was one of my better letters. At one point in that letter I talked about how concealed carry was coming to Illinois and it would arrive by one of two paths -- a well thought out and crafted piece of legislation from the elected leaders of Illinois or a court mandate that was jammed right down their throats by a panel of judges. During floor debate I nearly fell out of my chair when I heard Brandon repeat those predictions, word for word, (along with some other comments) on the house floor. I realized at least some of what we do actually does reach their eyes and ears.

 

Anyway, today I fervently hope that all those anti-gun legislators remember than letter too and learn from this experience. Illinois could have had this behind them two years ago and they could have bought into a solution that cost the anti-gun harpies far less than SB2193 will cost them....

[ChicagoSigFan]

I am not good at predicting Illinois politics (mainly because the folks in Springfield are just too darn creative at figuring news ways to screw the people), but here's my take.

 

Madigan went all in on his bill. He got 85 votes, which is huge. I don't know if Quinn and Cullerton have the juice to go against that. They can whine and moan, but at the end of the day, I think they have to pass the bill.

 

The senate cannot amend the bill. It's an up or down vote. If they vote it down and then pass their own bill, it has to pass the house. What are the odds of Madigan allowing that to happen under these circumstances?

 

I don' think it works to change the premption language to let Chicago keep the CFP. We already pay for the FOID and have a background check. Now we have to pay for a CCW (with additional training costs) and get another background check. I don't think it makes sense, and I don't know that it would survive the courts to require another fee for a city permit (plus the cost of that class) and another background check. It just doesn't compute in my mind, so i don't see any situation where the CFP survives.

 

But....time will tell.

[WindyCityGuy]

I am betting the Madigan included the elimination of Chicago/Cook county's AWB/CFP etc as something he can trade if he stalls in the Senate. He has shown Chicago what he can do and they have already backed off their Demands that Chicago has a different carry law as a result.

 

My prediction is the bill passes with preemption but they remove the provision that eliminates all home rule gun laws and Chicago keeps their AWB/ CFP crap.

I think you hit the nail right on the head.

 

The Senate can't even add a amendment to this bill, so how can they remove the AWB/CFP? They can't! Either the Senate wait to call it for a vote to see if Their bill pass or just vote on this bill!

 

Sure they can. Just strip their pos and replace with the house bill minus what they don't like.

[Elderberry]

Here is my prediction.... (Oh -- and I think you have some good logic in your's, Sig..)

 

I love data. Yesterday I put together a spreadsheet of how everyone voted so I could play around with it. I did some various sorts to arrange it in different ways -- it is always valuable to look at everything from various angles. One of them was to sort all the NAY votes together and then sort by location. Of course, everyone already knows what that showed but the question it drove in my mind was "what hold does the Chicago machine possibly have over (roughly) 20 democrats that would provide more leverage than the Speaker has"..????

 

So here is my prediction: Save that screen shot of how these folks voted because some of them have just signed their resignation letter. There will be some new faces after the democrat primary if I am right and it will come no matter what the machine does to save these people. You do not defy the power of the head of the party with impunity -- no matter what other's may promise you -- and he will make that point.... Oh, we probably won't know it but the survivors will hear it loud and clear..... And you will probably even see another criminal indictment or two come out of their defiance..... Sometimes when you decide to play hardball the other guy just jams the bat and we all know where it ends up....

 

THAT's my prediction....

[azone5]

Here is my prediction.... (Oh -- and I think you have some good logic in your's, Sig..)

 

I love data. Yesterday I put together a spreadsheet of how everyone voted so I could play around with it. I did some various sorts to arrange it in different ways -- it is always valuable to look at everything from various angles. One of them was to sort all the NAY votes together and then sort by location. Of course, everyone already knows what that showed but the question it drove in my mind was "what hold does the Chicago machine possibly have over (roughly) 20 democrats that would provide more leverage than the Speaker has"..????

 

So here is my prediction: Save that screen shot of how these folks voted because some of them have just signed their resignation letter. There will be some new faces after the democrat primary if I am right and it will come no matter what the machine does to save these people. You do not defy the power of the head of the party with impunity -- no matter what other's may promise you -- and he will make that point.... Oh, we probably won't know it but the survivors will hear it loud and clear..... And you will probably even see another criminal indictment or two come out of their defiance..... Sometimes when you decide to play hardball the other guy just jams the bat and we all know where it ends up....

 

THAT's my prediction....

 

Interesting prediction. I'm looking forward to see what happens in coming months.

[Elderberry]

Interesting prediction. I'm looking forward to see what happens in coming months.

 

So are those 20 Chicago area democrats.... I bet they are far more anxious than you are...!!!

[SLIM410]

The key word here is "Hypothetical"

[chidiver]

Interesting prediction. I'm looking forward to see what happens in coming months.

 

So are those 20 Chicago area democrats.... I bet they are far more anxious than you are...!!!

 

One of em is mine (Gabel)..a Northshore leftie's leftie. In a wierd, twisted way..I'm kinda glad she had the guts to hold with her (erroneous) principles against King Madigan. I can respect a principled stand, even if I disagree with it. It won't make for a long career and I'll work to get her out of office...but I can respect it much more than being Madigan's lap dog.

 

Yup. These are just hypotheticals to pass the time til we're told to melt the Capitol phone lines. What is fascinating (and disgusting) to me is the whole power struggle and profanity filter-measuring contest going on here.

 

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[Elderberry]

Yes, Chidiver, I see your point. I love respect principled stands too. But the question is, whose principled stand did she take..?? Her's or the Mayor's..? And I'm not claiming either way which it was, I'm just taking the position that it may not have been her stand (although in her case it may well have been). I will concede that some of those 20 have deeply embedded beliefs that would drive their NO vote. Others are convinced that they are voting the desire of those they represent -- and while that might be true, they should understand there are times that they have a higher calling to vote the Constitution they swore an allegiance to....

 

Edit: But some of those 20 took the position that the Mayor told them to take. I think we will be able to tell who a couple of those folks were -- eventually....

 

But at the end of the day, as we all recognize, it comes to power and he has it. And I think he should have it. We would expect the leader of our party, which ever party that is, to keep their little ducklings all lined up in a row. A lot of us get pretty vocal when that rino Kirk can't find his republican principals with either hand way out there in Dee Cee...

 

By the way, where do you dive..??