Doomed 'Assault Weapon' Ban May Cost Democrats This Fall

[mauserme]

https://reason.com/2022/07/29/the-dubious-and-doomed-assault-weapon-ban-that-the-house-approved-today-may-cost-democrats-this-fall/

 

The Dubious and Doomed 'Assault Weapon' Ban That the House Approved Today May Cost Democrats This Fall

Recent polling suggests that Americans are starting to recognize that such laws make no sense.

JACOB SULLUM | 7.29.2022 6:31 PM

 

The House of Representatives today approved H.R 1808, which would ban the production and sale of "assault weapons," including semi-automatic rifles with features such as pistol grips, folding or adjustable stocks, barrel shrouds, and threaded barrels. It also would ban a long list of specific models by name.

 

The bill, which passed the House by a vote of 217 to 213, has no chance in the evenly divided Senate, where support from at least 10 Republicans would be required to overcome a filibuster. House approval of H.R. 1808 is therefore a symbolic act aimed at energizing Democrats and encouraging them to vote in this fall's elections. But several House Democrats, whose objections nearly derailed today's vote, worried that it would hurt their party's candidates more than it would help them. In the end, five Democrats joined all but two Republicans in voting against the bill.

 

The fear that today's gesture could alienate more voters than it attracts seems rational given what happened after Congress approved similar legislation in 1994: Democrats lost control of the House and Senate. Polling data provide further reason to think that the House vote to revive the ban, which expired in 2004, could be politically perilous.

 

"There was uncertainty that an assault weapons ban has the votes in a chamber where Democrats have only a razor-thin four-member majority," The Washington Post noted on Wednesday. "Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), who recently lost his primary bid to a liberal Democrat, has publicly said he would vote against the ban. Other front-line members representing rural districts also expressed hesitancy in backing it."

 

Schrader argued that approving H.R. 1808 would cost Democrats in November. "This is a bill that destroyed the Democrats in '94," he told Politico earlier this month. "Do we really have a death wish list as Democrats?"

 

Vic Fazio, a former chair of the House Democratic Caucus who represented two California districts from 1979 to 1999, agrees with Schrader's take on what happened in 1994. By folding the "assault weapon" ban into the 1994 crime bill, Fazio told The Daily Beast in 2019, "we put a lot of folks on the line…In really strong gun states, it was seen as poison."

 

"Last time, we didn't necessarily define 'semi-automatic [assault weapon]' very well," Cooper told Politico. Nor does the new, supposedly improved version of the ban.

...

 

Under H.R. 1808, one prohibited feature is enough to make a semi-automatic rifle intolerable, and the list is somewhat different. The much-ridiculed reference to bayonet mounts is gone, for example, replaced by barrel shrouds. But the basic approach is the same. So if there was a problem with the 1994 definition of "assault weapons," there is also a problem with the 2022 definition.

 

The problem, as Joe Biden explained before he was elected president, was that gun manufacturers could comply with the 1994 law by "making minor modifications to their products" that left them "just as deadly." Removing the prohibited features did not affect the essential properties of semi-automatic rifles, which still fired the same ammunition at the same rate with the same muzzle velocity.

 

Biden nevertheless is proud of backing the 1994 ban, which he contradictorily (and implausibly) claims reduced mass-shooting deaths. He thinks fiddling with the language can correct the essential weakness of that law, which by his own account left many equally deadly firearms on the market. But that weakness is inherent in the puzzling distinctions drawn by this sort of law.

...

The Democrats who pushed today's vote figured it would make them look good to voters while making Republicans look bad. But if people who oppose an "assault weapon" ban are more inclined to vote on that basis than people who support it, re-upping this policy a few months before congressional elections could turn out to be a big mistake.

 

 

 

[Quiet Observer]

I am sure that there are plenty opinions on the left stating that the GOPs failure to vote for an assault weapons ban "may" hurt them in the fall. It is hard to debate "may". 

I think the bill is wrong, period!

[Matt B]

The democrats strategy here is a head scratcher. This was clearly a show vote, which as the article notes has a better chance of backfiring than energizing democratic voters. There are a lot of gun owners who were sleeping on the possibility of a broad nationwide gun ban, and they have just been woken up. 

[springfield shooter]

Cost the Democrats? Here's hoping it does.

[kingc]

Hope so.

[357]

I wasn't gonna vote in November but now I'm motivated to vote because of this outrageous legislation by paid legislators who don't know much about guns and this bill was handed to them by people that rule behind the scenes and want total control and to please people that eat up this propaganda and are asleep. History has shown time and again was has happened when the population was disarmed. Too cute by half calling anything they want to ban "assault" even though according to FBI statistics rifles are only used for 455 murders a year and more people die from fists and feet. Rifles don't commit violence and are not to blame, calling it gun violence is delusional and is not gonna change anything. Democrats already said guns in common use are the problem and want to ban all guns and this is just a step. We are outgunned by criminals who have switches which turn weapons to automatic and we can't even own rifles made for civilians now? With crime out of control we need more guns and more magazine capacity, not limited to 10 when criminals attack in groups and have real "assault" weapons (switches) automatic guns with 50 and 100 round magazines.

 

The gullible people who support this legislation and Bloomberg's Moms Demand Action don't know what's gonna happen if only criminals have guns. They want to turn tens of millions of law abiding people who have committed no crime into felons and are exercising their Constitutional right and confiscate their legally bought property for the actions of one criminal and this is collective punishment and feels like we are living in a police state which they are slowly creating. Does this feel like a Democracy when something you bought legally and is Constitutionally protected can be made illegal and confiscated and you can be put in prison? BTW "assault" weapon was coined by Hitler Sturmgewehr for propaganda and is being used for propaganda by tyrants in America.

[357]

Don't know if is gonna change anything by voting, with the demographic change (by design) is only a matter of time they can pass any laws they want and do as they please, that's why they are desperate to get the guns and will manufacture a crisis if necessary. Disgusted by Bloomberg's Moms Demand Action "survivors" and their fake crying bullying the politicians. Becoming a third world country and crime gonna get much worse and criminals will always have guns and law abiding people will be at their mercy. It has nothing to do with safety, it has always been about control and disarming the opposition. They wouldn't let criminals back on the street within hours if it was about safety and slap them on the wrist, criminals are the gift that keeps on giving for them so they can ask for more gun control.

[richp]

Don't have to look further than here to see the detail of just one small piece of the problem.

 

https://cwbchicago.com/2022/07/murder-electronic-monitoring-chicago-acquittal-guns-pot-a-viral-video-lollapalooza.html

[MrTriple]

It certainly doesn't help them. Gun control has become a huge political liability, which might explain why you see so many politicians willing to showboat on gun control, but not necessarily willing to pass anything far-reaching. The idea is to placate the shrinking number of very outspoken and very pushy advocates while not doing anything that could damage their rapport with independents.

 

The previous bill that passed, while I (and probably everyone here) opposed it, perhaps made sense politically because it allowed them to say, "we did something," even if it was meaningless in actual fact.

 

But this just angers independents and energizes Republicans while delivering absolutely nothing tangible for their own base.

 

Part of the calculus, I think, was that they'd already made a big scene with their hearings, and a failure to follow up with something big would've been just as embarrassing and politically damaging. They essentially painted themselves into a corner.

[mauserme]

Some off topic posts have been removed. 

[GTX63]

On 7/30/2022 at 2:51 PM, 357 said:

Don't know if is gonna change anything by voting, with the demographic change (by design) is only a matter of time they can pass any laws they want and do as they please, that's why they are desperate to get the guns and will manufacture a crisis if necessary. 

 

Don't be so quick to draw that conclusion. It has been stated in recent studies that Hispanics may be at a 50/50 split and the Black demographic is slowly eroding from the liberal party. One thing Democrats don't seem to have counted on is Latinos leaving oppressive political environments aren't coming here for the gun control, and they aren't all crazy about jumping on the entitlement wagon. The first generation Latino Americans know oppression all to well.

The future of America will be shared by a growing minority population, and a great many of them will be like minded as you and I. 

[357]

On 7/31/2022 at 8:46 AM, GTX63 said:

 

Don't be so quick to draw that conclusion. It has been stated in recent studies that Hispanics may be at a 50/50 split and the Black demographic is slowly eroding from the liberal party. One thing Democrats don't seem to have counted on is Latinos leaving oppressive political environments aren't coming here for the gun control, and they aren't all crazy about jumping on the entitlement wagon. The first generation Latino Americans know oppression all to well.

The future of America will be shared by a growing minority population, and a great many of them will be like minded as you and I. 

I hope is true but the future doesn't look good and I believe that is wishful thinking. Schools and the media tell them whites are the oppressors.

[illinois_buckeye]

On the other hand the future could look brighter than you think.  I think you have a lot of African Americans who are realizing about their 2nd amendment rights.  Get on YouTube for example and follow a guy banned Colin Noir(I think that’s the spelling), he is African American and has a lot of good videos.  He shows up on Fox News from time to time as well.  Also look at the district in Texas where a democrat lost the seat for the first time in over 100 years.  I know we complain about the border, but think this way if you were an average person wanting to get into the USA you probably want a better life than your home country.  Democrats are unlikely to do this, but they should finish the wall and have one or two entry points where people can be processed legally similar to Ellis island.  There’s no reason they should have to take 7 years to legally become citizens.  Why can’t they for example have courts set up near the border with extra judges to help process people quickly and have a school of some type there to help people assimilate and become legal citizens.  I think if they did something like this you’d get people who really want to be here, and I  imagine people who were just running things across the border would stop or try to go another area at which point if they aren’t at the legally known crossings, then they can figure that out.

[mauserme]

Colion Noir is an NRA spokesman who also happens to be an attorney.  He is very good at promoting our rights.

 

But don't forget folks like Rhonda Ezell of Ezell v Chicago fame and founder of Chicago Guns Matter, and Maj Toure, founder of Black Guns Matter.  And Otis.  Otris McDonald of McDonald v Chicago, the case that incorporated the Second Amendment against the states and municipalities.

 

And there are groups like the 751st Gun Club and the National African American Gun Association, to name just a couple.

 

Like them, we stay focused on our Second Amendment rights and leave things like border issues to others.

 

 

[illinois_buckeye]

You’ve got a great point, I’m just saying that when you take everything into perspective that things may not be as bleak as some think.  Despite everything that’s happened the last couple of years depending how the elections go, and if God continues to show grace, I think a lot of what’s happened might be fixable.

[MagSlap]

On 7/31/2022 at 8:46 AM, GTX63 said:

 

Don't be so quick to draw that conclusion. It has been stated in recent studies that Hispanics may be at a 50/50 split and the Black demographic is slowly eroding from the liberal party. One thing Democrats don't seem to have counted on is Latinos leaving oppressive political environments aren't coming here for the gun control, and they aren't all crazy about jumping on the entitlement wagon. The first generation Latino Americans know oppression all to well.

The future of America will be shared by a growing minority population, and a great many of them will be like minded as you and I. 

 

While that is a optimistic view...

I have yet to see fail the idea that "robbing peter to pay paul will get pauls vote"

[GTX63]

I'm just seeing patterns. Yes, a chicken in every pot/extra EBT bennies works every time. However, there is a growing segment that is tiring of the lies and the perpetual 4 year carrot over the head

[Plinkermostly]

[BobPistol]

The AWB won't be the thing that costs Democrats this fall.   It is just the icing on the cake.

The cake?
* Inflation 

* high gas prices caused by "worshipping the earth" religious doctrine being imposed by democrats

* COVID totalitarianism enforced by Democrats

* totalitarianism in general being enforced by Democrats

 

 

[JTHunter]

On 8/1/2022 at 11:05 AM, BobPistol said:

The AWB won't be the thing that costs Democrats this fall.   It is just the icing on the cake.

The cake?
* Inflation 

* high gas prices caused by "worshipping the earth" religious doctrine being imposed by democrats

* COVID totalitarianism enforced by Democrats

* totalitarianism in general being enforced by Democrats

 

Hopefully, you will be proven correct.

[Plinkermostly]

Political parties have a way of shooting themselves in the foot -- thier's to lose -- and they do.  Thankfully sometimes.

[DoYouFeelLucky]

The republicans are just as inspired in the foot-shooting as the democrats.  For the record, I hate both parties, with my hate for the democrats being just a little stronger.  I have seen our local BLM group come out in support of gun rights, because any restriction of rights is racist.  And now the infamous auntfa is starting to make noise in support of 2A rights.  They must have some smart people who realize that the hand that giveth can also take it away.

[countyline]

Has the Senate adjourned ?

[mauserme]

On 8/8/2022 at 9:00 AM, countyline said:

Has the Senate adjourned ?

 

They were in session again today.  They scheduled a short, pro forma session tomorrow so I think they're effectively done for now.