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So who are you going to vote for in the primary for Governor?


vito

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I don't know why people think a RINO anti-gun republican is the best candidate to beat a progressive anti-gun democrat. 


There couldn't be more of a contrast now between the GOP and the Dem candidate.  If Bailey can tie Jabba directly to the policies of POTATUS there is a good chance he will win.  Jabba is vulnerable on the lockdowns, gas prices, taxes, inflation, crime...  the list goes on.    

 

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On 6/29/2022 at 12:05 PM, Ranger said:

I think political strategists will study the Illinois Governor and Attorney General races and try to emulate the Democrat's strategy for years.  It was masterful.  Get your opponents to select the candidates with the least chance of beating you.  It worked.  I bet they already have the hit pieces against Bailey and DeVore already polished up and ready for distribution when the timing is optimal.  They were easy enough to find and craft.  I saw on one betting sight this morning that JB's odds are now at 94% up from 85%.

Not surprised at all, no-body north of 80 is going to vote for Bailey, it's over. 

Too bad Ken didn't pick such a loser. 

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On 6/29/2022 at 10:04 AM, Sweeper13 said:

WLS reported 1of 5 voters showed up in Chicago, lowest in 8 yrs.

 

On 6/29/2022 at 10:11 AM, mab22 said:

That’s a good thing, maybe they will have lower turnout in November!
 

 

Numbers from yesterday:

 

Bailey took 451,000/782,000

JB took      745,200/812,000

 

I'm guessing there will be a higher turnout in November for Democats.

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On 6/29/2022 at 1:56 PM, SiliconSorcerer said:

Not surprised at all, no-body north of 80 is going to vote for Bailey, it's over. 

Too bad Ken didn't pick such a loser. 


That isn't what the county maps showed last night.  That isn't what the totals are showing.  Bailey did well all over the state. He won the north. 

Irvin is in 3rd place and did terrible in most of the collar counties - including Cook.  If Irvin was the way to win the voters north of i80, then he should have won those counties.   His performance in the Aurora counties was also terrible.  How is Irvin supposed to win a general election if he can't even win in his own backyard? 

County by County map of results - NYT link

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On 6/29/2022 at 12:36 PM, Dumak_from_arfcom said:

I don't know why people think a RINO anti-gun republican is the best candidate to beat a progressive anti-gun democrat. 


There couldn't be more of a contrast now between the GOP and the Dem candidate.  If Bailey can tie Jabba directly to the policies of POTATUS there is a good chance he will win.  Jabba is vulnerable on the lockdowns, gas prices, taxes, inflation, crime...  the list goes on. 

 

 

IMO -

Bailey is too far right to win Illinois, at least in the current climate.

 

Rauner lost because conservatives felt he was too far left on RTL... not their ideal candidate.

Ms.Clinton lost because lots of D voters stayed home... she was not their ideal candidate and they felt she was a sure thing... a protest no-show.

 

Start planning for 2026.

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You are all underestimating how stupid either side could be to blow an easy election but keep reading polls.  I believe this will be a very close call at the end.  In who's favor will depend on the political climate at the time.  JB is a moron that has done nothing for the state besides make it more expensive to be here while at the same time doing whatever he can to avoid it on his personal level.  Everyone knows that.  It could be enough to tilt the right way.  After all it was only a couple years ago there was an R in that seat.

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And, it starts already!!!

 

https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2022/6/29/23188859/bailey-income-tax-returns-pritzker-republican-nominee-primary-irvin-uihlein-general-election

 

EFFINGHAM, Ill. — Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey acknowledged Wednesday that he’s a millionaire — but, like his big backer former President Donald Trump, the downstate farmer and state senator is refusing to release copies of his income tax returns.

 

 

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I agree, Bailey needs to stay in the North East for several months, the rest of the State is a shoe in!  He needs major campaigning in "the burbs".

 

The rest of the state he has won, since nobody likes JB.   All he has is money.  Also don't put all the loot in attack ads, need major internet presence in that area.

 

Bailey can win this,  the only issue I see keeping JB strong is Abortion... but that will be a non issue by election.(Bailey said he can't repeal abortion, the legislator won't let it)  

 

And another thing....  Bailey, will he get anything done, since Springfield is infested with radical left Dems?   At least with Bailey as Governor, we won't have to hear blow tard on the TV taking credit for everything....

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On 6/29/2022 at 7:15 PM, Vern in IL said:

I agree, Bailey needs to stay in the North East for several months, the rest of the State is a shoe in!  He needs major campaigning in "the burbs".

 

The rest of the state he has won, since nobody likes JB. 

 

You might be underestimating the current governor. It looks like he might have his eye on being President, and a gubernatorial loss would not bode well for that bid. He has pretty much unlimited resources to assist him- in 2018 he spent over $170 MILLION to become governor. He spent $30 MILLION in the Republican primary to get the candidate that he wants to go up against. You will probably see a very expensive, well coached bid to remain in office- from someone who hates to loose. 

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On 6/29/2022 at 7:15 PM, Vern in IL said:

I agree, Bailey needs to stay in the North East for several months, the rest of the State is a shoe in!  He needs major campaigning in "the burbs".

 

The rest of the state he has won, since nobody likes JB.   All he has is money.  Also don't put all the loot in attack ads, need major internet presence in that area.

 

Bailey can win this,  the only issue I see keeping JB strong is Abortion... but that will be a non issue by election.(Bailey said he can't repeal abortion, the legislator won't let it)  

 

And another thing....  Bailey, will he get anything done, since Springfield is infested with radical left Dems?   At least with Bailey as Governor, we won't have to hear blow tard on the TV taking credit for everything....

There is another side to this philosophy, which I have seen proven true more than once.  That is, these are voters you are NOT going to turn around.  While you are wasting your time in "enemy territory," as it were, your base could feel neglected, or believe that you aren't active, in which case, they stay home, and you lose.  Yes, Bailey is a "shoo in" in much of the state outside of Cook and the Collars, BUT, that is in terms of percentages.  He needs NUMBERS.  Remember back in the day, whenever the Family Pac types felt that an R candidate wasn't "Republican enough," and they'd stay home on election day out of spite, making the Ds' jobs that much easier?  In Bailey's case, his base as of now are all sane people outside of the Chitcago Metro Area.  Keep them energized.  Get them out!  What meager gains you might make in Bizarro World aren't worth the trade off, IMO.

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On 6/29/2022 at 8:05 PM, 2A4Cook said:

Here’s another way to energize your base😉

DD06A374-474F-484B-916C-B52A76777EB9.jpeg

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Funny that you mention turnout.  I’m from downstate, but I listen a bit to a station from St. Louis.  They are right leaning, but cover some Illinois politics, and made the point regarding the primary here that according to their sources, in cook county that turnout among 18-24 year old democrats was way down.  They stated that 88% of cook county is democrat.  However, they also said turnout in the suburbs among republicans was way up.  The point that one of the hosts made was that the weather was perfect, and that they had just had the roe ruling overturned the week before, and so that should have gotten people out to vote.  Also, they noted that across the state as far as republicans no really establishment type candidates really did well.  So they thought with all the factors above and if people didn’t show up again in November that there could be a red wave.  The hosts also expressed the opinion that they feel some of the democrat base may feel a bit down due to all the recent losses.

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On 6/30/2022 at 10:00 AM, illinois_buckeye said:

Funny that you mention turnout.  I’m from downstate, but I listen a bit to a station from St. Louis.  They are right leaning, but cover some Illinois politics, and made the point regarding the primary here that according to their sources, in cook county that turnout among 18-24 year old democrats was way down.  They stated that 88% of cook county is democrat.  However, they also said turnout in the suburbs among republicans was way up.  The point that one of the hosts made was that the weather was perfect, and that they had just had the roe ruling overturned the week before, and so that should have gotten people out to vote.  Also, they noted that across the state as far as republicans no really establishment type candidates really did well.  So they thought with all the factors above and if people didn’t show up again in November that there could be a red wave.  The hosts also expressed the opinion that they feel some of the democrat base may feel a bit down due to all the recent losses.

Hence why some rationale for mail in balloting will be furiously pushed ...

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I think it is a bad strategy to lump the abortion issue with the gun issue. If you want to win any particular policy, you need to isolate and de-politicize the issue. Pushing prochoice/prolife things along with gun rights just alienates a bunch of people who would have been pro gun rights.

 

I think our strategy should be trying to push all candidates and parties more pro gun. I don't know exactly how, but I do know lumping in pro life with gun rights is a sure way to help Illinois lose more gun rights.

 

Abortion issues are not going to change in Illinois. Take the L.  Get a candidate that can speak to the normie city dwellers on how Illinois Gun laws hurt minorities and the working class disproportionately. Speak their language, appeal to their concerns, etc.

 

https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2021/07/15/loyola-study-gun-charges-prison-sentences-safety/

 

Not only that, but push the democrat party in Illinois to be more pro gun. 

 

This might be controversial, but I'm just laying out my thoughts because I am optimistic on gun rights getting better in Illinois with the right strategy. I just don't think Bailey is the right strategy. Electing politicians isn't the only way forward. We can invest in culture. If we change the culture, if we promote gun ownership, if we educate, etc that can make gun rights a non political issue. Progressives know this, that is why all their policies don't just go for 'safety' but actively discourage gun ownership, carry and use.

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On 6/30/2022 at 10:27 AM, Lord_Balkan said:

...because I am optimistic on gun rights getting better in Illinois with the right strategy. I just don't think Bailey is the right strategy. Electing politicians isn't the only way forward. We can invest in culture. If we change the culture, if we promote gun ownership, if we educate, etc that can make gun rights a non political issue. Progressives know this, that is why all their policies don't just go for 'safety' but actively discourage gun ownership, carry and use.

 

I can't share that thought, IMO based on history, the only way to restore any significant gun rights in Illinois is through the courts...

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On 6/30/2022 at 2:00 PM, Flynn said:

 

I can't share that thought, IMO based on history, the only way to restore any significant gun rights in Illinois is through the courts...

 That's true, but when there are opportunities to unite people through gun rights, we shouldn't polarize them with our other views, whatever they may be. Over the past 2-3 years, plenty of people purchased firearms and got into the hobby / culture. We should capitalize on that. I think the firearm community dropped the ball a bit. We need to focus on encouraging positive firearm culture

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2A4Cook has an excellent point.  Bailey would need numbers not percentages.  That northeast corner of the state that Bailey called a ****hole has a whole lot of numbers.

 

https://www.cochranshow.com/podcast/the-nominee-the-chancellor-and-the-ceo

 

With a very low turnout in heavily democrat areas (possibly due to far fewer real races on the democrat side and to democrats switching in the primary to vote for Bailey to ensure he is the candidate), almost as many people voted for JB as voted for all the Republican candidates combined.  Although Bailey / DeVore both have pretty widespread support among republicans, I think they are going to get absolutely creamed in the general.  Who has and is willing to spend the money to support either that Pritzker has / will spend on his own behalf?  Griffen showed what he thought when he announced that Citadel was moving from Chicago to Miami.

 

Of perhaps more concern...  I noticed that the bets (odds) related to republicans taking control of the US House and US Senate each dropped pretty significantly (although still favorable) on a betting site from when I looked at it right before the primary.  I haven't paid attention to primary races or anything anywhere else.  Don't know if that is related to primary race winners, SCOTUS rulings, the Jan 6th coverage, or what. 

 

I still think the odds are good unless the Republicans blow it; but am also sure that the Republican party can blow it as I've seen it over and over.  If it happens, I think Trump bashing Desantis / intraparty fighting will play a role in it. 

 

Think I'll stop reading / visiting political sites for a while to minimize frustration for a while.  My wife stopped watching the news after the last Presidential election (she was / is very disappointed with results) and it has probably helped her avoid some frustration.

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On 6/30/2022 at 2:05 PM, Lord_Balkan said:

Over the past 2-3 years, plenty of people purchased firearms and got into the hobby / culture. We should capitalize on that. I think the firearm community dropped the ball a bit. We need to focus on encouraging positive firearm culture

 

The problem is history has again shown us that many of them are FUDDs that as long as they can do what they want, they don't give two hoots if the laws prevent you from doing what you want, or worse they literally support and encourage laws preventing you from doing what you want because it doesn't effect them.  They are primarily just casual gun owners, not people actually into the culture.

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On 6/30/2022 at 10:00 AM, illinois_buckeye said:

Funny that you mention turnout.  I’m from downstate, but I listen a bit to a station from St. Louis.  They are right leaning, but cover some Illinois politics, and made the point regarding the primary here that according to their sources, in cook county that turnout among 18-24 year old democrats was way down.  They stated that 88% of cook county is democrat.  However, they also said turnout in the suburbs among republicans was way up.  The point that one of the hosts made was that the weather was perfect, and that they had just had the roe ruling overturned the week before, and so that should have gotten people out to vote.  Also, they noted that across the state as far as republicans no really establishment type candidates really did well.  So they thought with all the factors above and if people didn’t show up again in November that there could be a red wave.  The hosts also expressed the opinion that they feel some of the democrat base may feel a bit down due to all the recent losses.

 

I am in Cook County.  Never bothered to vote in the Governor race before.  Wife and I voted in the Primaries this year.  You can bet we will be there in November trying to get that fat ***** out.

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