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ISP Statistical Analysis- August, 2021 Processing Data- CCL, FOID, and NICS


Molly B.
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With the release of the August, 2021 processing activity, attached are two analysis of data provided on the Illinois State Police (ISP) Statistics Web page (https://isp.illinois.gov/Foid/Statistics. Analysis provided by friend of IllinoisCarry.

 

Some quick notes on the overall analysis:

·  The overall estimated backlog for August, 2021 showed a significant decrease.

·  A comparison between August, 2020 and August,  2021 shows an increase in FOID (new and renewal), CCL new, and FTIP processing of over 123%.

·  Average days to new FOID applications hit over 258 days. The overall estimated new FOID application backlog is calculated at 63,614.

·  In August, 2021, the ISP did not show any NICS inquiry rechecks.

·  Illinois maintains its lead in NICS inquiries by submitting (2021 year to date) over 25% of all NICS inquiries.

A summary of the backlog activity is:

Analysis for
August, 2021

 

New Aps /  Trans Received

 

Processed

 

Estimated Backlog

 

Notes:

 

Current Month

 

Prior Month

 

% Change

 

Current Month

 

Prior Month

 

% Change

 

Current Month

 

Prior Month

 

% Change

 

FOID New Applications

 

    9,514

 11,522

(17.4)

   29,530

 16,178

82.5

   63,614

   83,630

(23.9)

 

 

FOID Renewal Applications

 

  10,540

 12,683

(16.9)

   76,812

 10,436

636.0

    (7,321)

   58,951

(112.4)

 

 

CCL New Applications

 

    2,632

   3,479

(24.3)

   11,132

   9,362

18.9

     8,549

   15,830

(46.0)

 

 

CCL Renewal Applications

 

            -

           -

-

             -

           -

-

             -

             -

-

 

Not reported by ISP

 

FTIPS Transactions

 

  35,364

 34,345

3.0

   35,364

 34,345

3.0

             -

             -

-

 

 

Portfolio

 

  58,050

 62,029

(6.4)

 152,838

 70,321

117.3

   64,842

 158,411

(59.1)

 

 

 

 

A comparison of activity between this year and last year:

Analysis for
August, 2021 Compared to
August, 2020

 

New Aps /  Trans Received

 

Processed

 

Notes:

 

Current Month Current Yr.

 

Current Month Prior Yr.

 

% Change

 

Current Month Current Yr.

 

Current Month Prior Yr.

 

% Change

 

FOID New Applications

 

         9,514

    30,719

(69.0)

       29,530

       17,701

66.8

 

FOID Renewal Applications

 

       10,540

    13,596

(22.5)

       76,812

         3,137

2348.6

 

CCL New Applications

 

         2,632

       7,501

(64.9)

       11,132

         3,488

219.2

 

CCL Renewal Applications

 

                   -

                -

-

                   -

                   -

-

Not reported by ISP

 

FTIPS Transactions

 

       35,364

    44,142

(19.9)

       35,364

       44,142

(19.9)

 

Portfolio

 

       58,050

    95,958

(39.5)

    152,838

       68,468

123.2

 

 

 

In an effort to reconcile the backlog calculated in the analysis and what the ISP calculates, and occasionally publishes as a backlog, a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request was submitted to the ISP relating to the backlogs. The ISP responded noting that the total FOID backlog (open processing greater than 30 days since receipt) of 165,534 as of April, 30, 2021. In the analysis, the total calculated backlog is 168,409 as of April 30, 2021. ISP did not break the backlog between New and Renewal applications. As the difference of 2,875 is just 1.71%  of the calculated backlog, the difference can be viewed as immaterial and a validation of the backlog calculation methodology. Until the ISP can break out the backlog between new and renewal applications, due to the immaterial nature of the difference, an adjustment will not be made to the backlog in this analysis.

 

 

Average Processing Time

Changes between July, 2021 and August, 2021 are:

 

Aug, 2021

 

Jul, 2021

 

Difference

 

% Change

 

New FOID application Average Processing Time (Days)

 

     196.74

         188.95

          7.79

               4.12

Renewal FOID application Average Processing Time (Days)

 

     258.16

         143.82

      114.34

             79.50

New Non-Fingerprint CCL Average Processing Time (Days)

 

     167.00

         143.74

        23.26

             16.18

New Fingerprint CCL Average Processing Time (Days)

 

     136.44

         131.79

          4.65

               3.53

FTIP Average Processing Time (Hours)

 

         7.75

           23.30

      (15.55)

            (66.74)

 

 

National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) Illinois State Police data analysis

Included is an analysis of ISP related NICS data. A summary of activity:

 

Current Month to Prior Month

 

Month- Current Year to Prior Year

 

YTD- Current Year to Prior Year

 

NICS Analysis for
August, 2021

 

Month
[08-2021]

 

Month
[07-2021]

 

% Change

 

Month
[08-2021]

 

Month
[08-2020]

 

% Change

 

YTD
[08-2021]

 

YTD
[08-2020]

 

% Change

 

Permit- IL

 

   385,196

357,709

7.7

     385,196

       39,261

881.1

      872,042

      277,083

214.7

Transfers- IL

 

     41,367

55,887

(26.0)

       41,367

43,652

(5.2)

      359,183

      366,275

(1.9)

Permit Recheck- IL

 

                 -

243,182

(100.0)

                   -

     504,311

(100.0)

  5,902,820

  4,536,315

30.1

Total

 

   426,563

656,778

(35.1)

     426,563

     587,224

(27.4)

  7,134,045

  5,179,673

37.7

 

 

 

Aug-2021

 

NICS Analysis for
Aug-2021

 

IL Only

 

All NICS

 

IL as a % of All NICS

 

Prior Month

 

656,778

2,860,476

22.96

Current Month

 

      426,563

2,697,234

15.81

Current Month YTD

 

  7,134,045

27,620,438

25.83

YTD Prior Year (Aug-2020)

 

  5,179,673

  25,692,044

         20.16

 

 

 

Overall Analysis Notes

Overview:

This is an analysis of the Illinois State Police (ISP) information for new Firearm Owners Identification (FOID) applications, new Concealed Carry License (CCL) applications, and Firearms Transfer Inquiry Program (FTIP) transactions. The purpose of the analysis is to independently “re-calculate”/ verify the backlog of FOID and CCL applications from information published by the ISP. Due to the limitation of data made available by the ISP, a majority of the analysis focuses on new FOID, renewal FOID, and new CCL applications. FTIP transactions are added into the analysis as similar data is analyzed and similar resources may be used to analyze FOID, CCL, and FTIP items.

 

Methodology/Constraints:

Due to data availability, the initial calculation of the backlogs for new FOIL and CCL applications starts in January, 2020. For Renewal FOID applications, the calculation starts in March, 2020 to coincide with the publication of data. To calculate the backlog, the number of new applications received is reduced by the number of decisions, approved or denied, given.  Subsequent monthly backlogs (new applications less approved and denied applications) are then included in the initial backlog to determine the cumulative backlog. Please note that the overall cumulative backlog is probably understated, but this methodology, when applied over time, will show the overall status (or trend) of a backlog. As this analysis has been ongoing, information has been requested either directly from ISP or via Illinois Legislature representatives’ offices.

 

Information requested/provided:

Actual backlog (estimate) of new FOID applications (requested- not received)- Total FOID (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 165,534 (Via FOIA request)

Actual backlog (estimate) of renewal FOID applications (requested-not received)- Total FOID (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 165,534 (Via FOIA request)

Actual backlog (estimate) of new CCL applications (requested-not received)- Total CCL (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 39,646 (Via FOIA request)

Actual backlog (estimate) of renewal CCL applications (requested-not received)- Total CCL (New and renewal) backlog at 4/30/2021 received- 39,646 (Via FOIA request)

Web page error of CCL application historical processing- 2019 (provided to ISP- no feedback received)

 

Potential Information Needed:

With the anticipated addition of Analysts, some information that may be beneficial in the future is the actual number of Analysts or hours spent on each application/ transaction type. This information could show operational efficiencies of the resource allocation applied to each application/ transaction type processed.

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On 9/14/2021 at 7:47 AM, SiliconSorcerer said:

I was wondering if there will be analysis / commentary of last August vs this August. 

Have we reached saturation or complacency? 

 

 

This?

 

Analysis for
August, 2021 Compared to
August, 2020

 

New Aps /  Trans Received

 

Processed

 

Notes:

 

Current Month Current Yr.

 

Current Month Prior Yr.

 

% Change

 

Current Month Current Yr.

 

Current Month Prior Yr.

 

% Change

 

FOID New Applications

 

         9,514

    30,719

(69.0)

       29,530

       17,701

66.8

 

FOID Renewal Applications

 

       10,540

    13,596

(22.5)

       76,812

         3,137

2348.6

 

CCL New Applications

 

         2,632

       7,501

(64.9)

       11,132

         3,488

219.2

 

CCL Renewal Applications

 

                   -

                -

-

                   -

                   -

-

Not reported by ISP

 

FTIPS Transactions

 

       35,364

    44,142

(19.9)

       35,364

       44,142

(19.9)

 

Portfolio

 

       58,050

    95,958

(39.5)

    152,838

       68,468

123.2

 

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On 9/14/2021 at 2:00 PM, SiliconSorcerer said:

 

This year vs last, saturation or complacency.  That was my question asking for commentary.  Whole lot less people applying (in IL).  

 

FOID New Applications

 

         9,514 

    30,719

 

I think that the complacency/ saturation (or even frustration) alignment would be your commentary. I am not currently aware of any polls in Illinois for prospective gunowners that would measure complacency or saturation. We know that since January, 2020 the Illinois State Police have processed about 380,000 new FOID applications. The media has also noted an increase in first time gun buyers do to “civil unrest” and/or “COVID19”. We do know that approximately 18% of Illinoisans have a FOID card whereas some polls indicate that about 30% of all Americans are gun owners. We also know that the average processing time for new FOID applications has been steadily increasing from level defined by some administrators as “unacceptable” in December, 2020. I am not sure if any of the statistics provided by the Illinois State Police would point to any single correlation of complacency or saturation (or frustration).

 

Month/ Year New FOID Application Ave. Processing Time (Days) Statutory "Requirement" Days in Excess of "Requirement" % of Excess days over Statutory "Requirement" Notes                             
02/2021 118.89 30 88.89 296.3  
03/2021 126.35 30 96.35 321.2  
04/2021 140.39 30 110.39 368.0  
05/2021 206.84 30 176.84 589.5  
06/2021 n/a 30 - - Not published      
07/2021 188.95 30 158.95 529.8  
08/2021 196.74 30 166.74 555.8  

 

 
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