kwc Posted October 13, 2015 at 10:01 PM Posted October 13, 2015 at 10:01 PM The first table below captures the current cumulative totals of Illinois Concealed Carry Licenses (CCLs) issued to nonresidents and residents since the program began, obtained via Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request. The second table provides a trend analysis based on prior FOIA requests. I didn't start requesting resident totals until Dec 2014, hence the gaps in the data set. Last month's totals are presented in this thread: http://illinoiscarry.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=58244&hl= Some brief observations: * ISP must have just pulled data at the end of September. Perhaps they're catching onto my battle rhythm. This request was submitted Oct 5, anticipating a 7-10 Oct data pull. Therefore this data set only captures 2/3 of one month's worth of licensing information.* The first table contains an error; a "0" was inadvertently placed in the NM "# issued (total)" total column. * Nonresident licenses rose by 1 since Sep 10.* The backlog of CCLs awaiting CCLRB review continues to climb (from 1465 on Sep 10 to 1543 as of Sep 30).* Another 13 licenses have been revoked since the September 10 report. Note that ISP classifies revocations differently than cancellations, with the former driven by such things as legal problems and mental illnesses and the latter a result of moves out of state, deaths, voluntary submissions, etc.
spec5 Posted October 13, 2015 at 10:05 PM Posted October 13, 2015 at 10:05 PM Thanks for continuing with your requests for updates.
ChicagoRonin70 Posted October 13, 2015 at 10:35 PM Posted October 13, 2015 at 10:35 PM So, they gave a 20-day update instead of a 30-day update. Still, as compared to the last update, it's an increase of 2,568 new granted licenses, making 133,710 minus 91,753 from last year equaling 41,957 licenses granted in the first 273 days of the year. Which averages out to 153.689 new licenses per day, and a projected total of 56,096 licenses granted this year. The projected total of licenses granted based on this is now round 147,850 so down even from last update when it was on track for 148,580. There does seem to be a slowing trend after that big spike we had a few months back. The number of new applicants also seems to be tapering down a bit, as well. At this rate, we might be lucky to get above 145,000 total licenses granted by the end of the year. If I recall correctly, I guessed 142,955 in the poll for the total licenses by the end of the year, and sure, I'll be rubbing my hands together like Gollum over the One Ring if I get the promised 1,000 rounds of .22 LR for being closest, but I really would not mind at all if the CCLRB went all profligate billionaire at Christmas with the licenses and started tossing them out like dimes to orphans. ("CCLs for everyone! And you get one, and you get one!")
kwc Posted October 13, 2015 at 11:20 PM Author Posted October 13, 2015 at 11:20 PM I think your prediction is going to be very close.
ChicagoRonin70 Posted October 13, 2015 at 11:42 PM Posted October 13, 2015 at 11:42 PM I think your prediction is going to be very close. Yeah, and although I'm proud of my statistical predictive skills and research, this is one time when I really wish I was off by a mile. A couple of people were, jokingly or now, tossing out numbers like 250,000 to 300,000, and I really would have loved to see us on track for that. I talked to a couple of statisticians and researchers who are studying concealed carry and crime prevention, and the feeling is based on what they are finding that Illinois is, in fact, going to plateau at probably around a quarter of a million concealed carry licenses, tapering down in new licensees to that point over the next 5–7 years, because of the financial and legal barriers to carry currently in place in this state. If you look at it, last year there was about 92,000 licenses granted, this year there will be about 50,000–55,000, and that reduction trend is predicted to continue until an equilibrium is reached by older licensees dying off and newer ones taking their place. Unless something significant changes with Illinois' CCL licensing scheme, the prediction for percentage of the population being able to carry concealed is about 2 percent at this time. I find that really annoying and disheartening.
Kaeghl Posted October 14, 2015 at 12:36 AM Posted October 14, 2015 at 12:36 AM Wait a second, an average of 154 a day? Okay, I'm impressed. That is a whole boat-load of stuff done per day for a government office to get done.
sirflyguy Posted October 14, 2015 at 02:18 AM Posted October 14, 2015 at 02:18 AM Which explains why classes have slowed a lot down south here in Il. I bet my class numbers are down pretty close to the same percentage shown with license issuance. Any other instructors wanna chime in here?
OrlandInstructor Posted October 14, 2015 at 03:55 AM Posted October 14, 2015 at 03:55 AM I know 6 people that applied for their license llast week that we trained over a year ago.
Tod Posted October 14, 2015 at 09:03 PM Posted October 14, 2015 at 09:03 PM But am I reading the data right .... in 20 days, the ISP received 4,441 new applications (148,245 this month minus 143,834 last months) ... isn't the number of applications significantly up from the number of new applications for a full month from Aug to Sept (143,834 minus 140,038 equals 3,796 new applications). So, again, if I'm looking at this correctly ... in 20 days this month 4,441 ... versus previous FULL month increase of 3,796. Am I looking at this correctly? Also, please keep up these monthly postings. Count me amongst those who find the tables very interesting!!!!!
Paulkucz Posted October 14, 2015 at 09:45 PM Posted October 14, 2015 at 09:45 PM Since they basically reinvent the wheel for an address change, do those count, in their view, as new applications?
Double-J Posted October 14, 2015 at 11:35 PM Posted October 14, 2015 at 11:35 PM The numbers only reflect the populous that could afford the carry license. I'm sure there are many more out there that are put-off by the fee's.
ChicagoRonin70 Posted October 15, 2015 at 05:19 AM Posted October 15, 2015 at 05:19 AM The numbers only reflect the populous that could afford the carry license. I'm sure there are many more out there that are put-off by the fee's. That is exactly what researchers tracking this subject are finding, as I wrote here: I think your prediction is going to be very close. Yeah, and although I'm proud of my statistical predictive skills and research, this is one time when I really wish I was off by a mile. A couple of people were, jokingly or now, tossing out numbers like 250,000 to 300,000, and I really would have loved to see us on track for that. I talked to a couple of statisticians and researchers who are studying concealed carry and crime prevention, and the feeling is based on what they are finding that Illinois is, in fact, going to plateau at probably around a quarter of a million concealed carry licenses, tapering down in new licensees to that point over the next 5–7 years, because of the financial and legal barriers to carry currently in place in this state. If you look at it, last year there was about 92,000 licenses granted, this year there will be about 50,000–55,000, and that reduction trend is predicted to continue until an equilibrium is reached by older licensees dying off and newer ones taking their place. Unless something significant changes with Illinois' CCL licensing scheme, the prediction for percentage of the population being able to carry concealed is about 2 percent at this time. I find that really annoying and disheartening. For many people who live in disadvantaged neighborhoods, the a CCL costs the same as two months of groceries or a month's rent. So, what are they going to choose, eating and having a roof over their heads, or taking a class that they still have to buy a legally obtained firearm for, and then walk on eggshells hoping that a cop doesn't find it on a random stop and search, and end up shooting them for carrying before finding out the carry was illegal. You would think from that it is almost as if the state legislature and the pressure from Chicago politicians was meant to keep people of color from legally having guns. Shades of Boss Daley, hmm?
kwc Posted October 15, 2015 at 10:42 AM Author Posted October 15, 2015 at 10:42 AM So, again, if I'm looking at this correctly ... in 20 days this month 4,441 ... versus previous FULL month increase of 3,796. Am I looking at this correctly? Yes, I believe you're understanding is correct. It's possible we will see a bump in the next 1-3 months (30-120 days) that lags the increase in applications submitted.
kwc Posted October 15, 2015 at 10:44 AM Author Posted October 15, 2015 at 10:44 AM Since they basically reinvent the wheel for an address change, do those count, in their view, as new applications? I'm pretty sure the ISP is not double-counting address changes as new applications in that column.
Beezil Posted October 15, 2015 at 02:45 PM Posted October 15, 2015 at 02:45 PM I know 6 people that applied for their license llast week that we trained over a year ago. so what do you make of that? why the wait?
Double-J Posted October 16, 2015 at 01:40 AM Posted October 16, 2015 at 01:40 AM ChicagoRonin70: As I recall when we were guessing what the numbers would be for the first year of ICCL, I think I was around 100K. Those that predicted 250-300K were way out in left field. My opinion is that there are millions of people out there that still don't know that Illinois has a Concealed Carry Law on the books and have no idea that they can become part of a small but growing movement of people that want and need to protect themselves... legally. I think we dropped the ball when it comes to educating the public about concealed carry. Anti-gun rhetoric is EVERYWHERE but where is the rebuttal? I bet if you walk down main-street Illinois, pick your city, and ask what the laws are about guns in Illinois, the most often answer you'll get is; Hugh? Where do CCW Instructors advertise? Local paper? Illinois Carry? On the marquee of the gun shop portable signage? One day per year, gun rights advocates gather in Springfield and walk a few blocks to the Capitol where we find Anti-Gun Legislators are mysteriously "In a Meeting" behind closed doors. I'm afraid that we have just about tapped out those interested in CCW in Illinois and are only getting stragglers who know someone who has his/her ccw license. If you want to see the numbers go up, you need to educate the public. It may take a few years to break the "OMG we're talking about Guns? crowd" but if you don't put it in front of them, all the'll see is the left wing gun haters club media. And the numbers will continue to fall.
kwc Posted October 16, 2015 at 02:51 AM Author Posted October 16, 2015 at 02:51 AM I know 6 people that applied for their license llast week that we trained over a year ago. so what do you make of that? why the wait? OrlandInstructor might know the specific reasons, but I wouldn't be surprised if some fence-sitters were motivated to apply after the Oregon community college shooting--much in the same way gun and ammo sales skyrocket after such tragedies and the ensuing political fall-out.
OrlandInstructor Posted October 16, 2015 at 05:56 AM Posted October 16, 2015 at 05:56 AM There seems to be no sense of urgency for some people. The spike in shootings in Chicago and the Oregon shootings have been contributing factors. Yesterday we assisted a student with their application that completed their training March 2014.
ChicagoRonin70 Posted November 17, 2015 at 06:22 AM Posted November 17, 2015 at 06:22 AM Hey, I just realized that it is halfway through November and kwc hasn't posted the updated totals for the month.
kwc Posted November 17, 2015 at 11:40 AM Author Posted November 17, 2015 at 11:40 AM Hey, I just realized that it is halfway through November and kwc hasn't posted the updated totals for the month. Yeah, ISP asked for a 5-day extension. Still waiting... the clock runs out tomorrow.
ChicagoRonin70 Posted November 17, 2015 at 07:42 PM Posted November 17, 2015 at 07:42 PM Hey, I just realized that it is halfway through November and kwc hasn't posted the updated totals for the month.Yeah, ISP asked for a 5-day extension. Still waiting... the clock runs out tomorrow. Hmm, veddy een-tah-ess-tink! I wonder if that bodes well or ill? Or just the usual incompetence surfacing?
kwc Posted November 19, 2015 at 11:02 PM Author Posted November 19, 2015 at 11:02 PM November totals are posted here.
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