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FCCL and FOID Data by County


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  • 5 weeks later...

Keep in mind that ISP has a lot of time to process applications and also that not all applications which are started are completed in a timely manner or at all. Everything I've seen says that the actual denial rate is comparable to that in other states, keeping in mind that most other states saw slightly higher denial rates when carry began that they do now.

 

It would be interesting to track denial/appeal/etc. stats but right now the process is so fluid, what with rule changes and court challenges, that it's hard to formulate a meaningful request for data and even more difficult to get data which would be comparable from one period to the next.

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Keep in mind that ISP has a lot of time to process applications and also that not all applications which are started are completed in a timely manner or at all. Everything I've seen says that the actual denial rate is comparable to that in other states, keeping in mind that most other states saw slightly higher denial rates when carry began that they do now.

 

It would be interesting to track denial/appeal/etc. stats but right now the process is so fluid, what with rule changes and court challenges, that it's hard to formulate a meaningful request for data and even more difficult to get data which would be comparable from one period to the next.

What would REALLY be interesting is to get data on the number of law enforcement objections, especially broken down into the reasons for said objections (danger to self, others, public safety, mental illness, et cetera), as well as an accounting of where and who (what town/city/county/state, as well as the objecting party in those places) the objection came from. Then contrast that with how many of those objections were overturned, by the board and through court challenge. I'd bet that would open up an extremely interesting line of inquiry as to who and what sort of behavior is going on with this. I also bet my next two years' worth of ammo money that if that was done, and widely disseminated to media sources and pro 2nd Amendment activists (hay!), the resulting furor would severely curtail specious objections by entities like the CPD and the Sheriff of Dartingham.

Edited by ChicagoRonin70
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91k still feels low. I was application # 100xxx and that was 4 months ago. I figured it would be in the 120xxx. Are that many people getting denied?

 

As of 9 Dec, ISP responded to my FOIA request stating there were 100,755 applicants, 88,500 issued, and 1,020 ultimately denied (after board review). That reflects about a 1% denial rate at that time.

Edited by kwc
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For comparison, Minnesota reports that in 2013, there were 62,950 applications filed. 60,471 had been issued by the end of the year, 540 had been denied, and 1825 were pending. 114 were in assorted other categories (suspended, revoked, void, cancelled, appealed). Percentages: 2.9% pending, 0.86% denied. So we're in the ballpark.

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Here's a PDF with the FOID numbers by county on 1/2/2014 and 1/1/2015 and the 12/31/2014 FCCL counts. I've included estimated population plus columns for FOID (at year end) as % of population, FOID % growth for the year, FCCL as % of FOID, and FCCL as % of population. After I get a chance to do some more proofreading I'll post this in spreadsheet form.

 

Meanwhile, a few highlights:

 

FOIDs are up 8.5% for the year (by over 142,000), and now are held by about 14.2% of the population. The increase in Cook County, which occurred in the face of that jurisdiction's continued hostility to the Second Amendment, was an incredible 11.3%, highest in the state.

 

FCCLs are now held by 5.0% of FOID cardholders. At the beginning of the year this number was approximately 0.0%. In Cook County, 5.5% of FOID cardholders now have FCCLs.

 

As always, suggestions and corrections are invited.

 

YE2014 FCCL + FOID.pdf

 

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Here's a PDF with the FOID numbers by county on 1/2/2014 and 1/1/2015 and the 12/31/2014 FCCL counts. I've included estimated population plus columns for FOID (at year end) as % of population, FOID % growth for the year, FCCL as % of FOID, and FCCL as % of population. After I get a chance to do some more proofreading I'll post this in spreadsheet form.

 

Meanwhile, a few highlights:

 

FOIDs are up 8.5% for the year (by over 142,000), and now are held by about 14.2% of the population. The increase in Cook County, which occurred in the face of that jurisdiction's continued hostility to the Second Amendment, was an incredible 11.3%, highest in the state.

 

FCCLs are now held by 5.0% of FOID cardholders. At the beginning of the year this number was approximately 0.0%. In Cook County, 5.5% of FOID cardholders now have FCCLs.

 

As always, suggestions and corrections are invited.

 

attachicon.gifYE2014 FCCL + FOID.pdf

 

You know what's extremely interesting about Cook County's data is that despite the increase being the highest in the state, both the percentage of FOID holders and FCCL holders are the lowest per capita in the state, at 8.3 percent and 0.46 percent, respectively. The next lowest percentage per capita in both is DuPage at 11.0 percent and 0.60 percent. It's almost as if there is some discouraging factor in those counties trying to make it more difficult for citizens to get licensed to own and carry firearms.

 

Curiouser and curiouser.

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Here's a PDF with the FOID numbers by county on 1/2/2014 and 1/1/2015 and the 12/31/2014 FCCL counts. I've included estimated population plus columns for FOID (at year end) as % of population, FOID % growth for the year, FCCL as % of FOID, and FCCL as % of population. After I get a chance to do some more proofreading I'll post this in spreadsheet form.

 

Meanwhile, a few highlights:

 

FOIDs are up 8.5% for the year (by over 142,000), and now are held by about 14.2% of the population. The increase in Cook County, which occurred in the face of that jurisdiction's continued hostility to the Second Amendment, was an incredible 11.3%, highest in the state.

 

FCCLs are now held by 5.0% of FOID cardholders. At the beginning of the year this number was approximately 0.0%. In Cook County, 5.5% of FOID cardholders now have FCCLs.

 

As always, suggestions and corrections are invited.

 

attachicon.gifYE2014 FCCL + FOID.pdf

 

You know what's extremely interesting about Cook County's data is that despite the increase being the highest in the state, both the percentage of FOID holders and FCCL holders are the lowest per capita in the state, at 8.3 percent and 0.46 percent, respectively. The next lowest percentage per capita in both is DuPage at 11.0 percent and 0.60 percent. It's almost as if there is some discouraging factor in those counties trying to make it more difficult for citizens to get licensed to own and carry firearms.

 

Curiouser and curiouser.

 

It doesnt help that there are assault weapon bans in Cook County and Aurora. You can only shoot at gun ranges (save for some unincorporated areas), which there are none in Chicago, and few in either county. I dont think either really has a gun culture. Perhaps Chicagos gun culture has seeped out into the rest of Cook and DuPage counties? Thankfully, Chicago's big political party hasnt invaded DuPage County.

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  • 2 months later...

Today's numbers, just in time for IGOLD.

 

Statewide total = 101,560; county breakdown in the following PDF:

 

attachicon.gifFCCL by county as of 3-17-2014.pdf

 

Well, it looks like a slight slowdown from about 3 weeks ago, where we were on pace for 139,827 since CCLs have begun to be issued. With 101,560 in the first 76 days of the year, that puts it on a pace for 47,100 licenses issued in 2015. plus the 91,753 from last year, that makes 138,753 issued total by the end of 2015. We got to pick this thing up, people!

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  • 3 months later...

Here is a PDF with the FOID and FCCL stats for Illinois as of June 30, 2015, broken down by county and gender. The data are from ISP via FOIA. I've added a small amount of analysis detailing how likely male and female FOID cardholders are to have FCCLs, and projecting what the current FCCL #s would look like if female FOID cardholders were as likely as male FOID cardholders to have obtained FCCLs. The last two columns are labeled "Female FCCL Growth Opportunity" and "FCCL Totals w/ Gender Equality". The wording is intended to be mildly provocative.

 

FOID+FCCL by county and gender 6-30-2015 DRAFT.pdf

 

Comments and complaints are welcome. As before, I'll update this to add data and to respond to comments. In particular, I plan to add population data once the 2015 mid-year estimates are released by census.gov, which should be soon.

 

 

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I'd like to see the female CCL holder numbers go up. Currently they're at roughly 1/5th of the male numbers.

 

It actually surprises me it's that high. I thought it would be closer to 10%.

 

I would like to see them at 50/50. In reality I would feel much better if my wife carried (she has no interest).

Edited by gLockedandLoaded
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I'd like to see the female CCL holder numbers go up. Currently they're at roughly 1/5th of the male numbers.

 

It actually surprises me it's that high. I thought it would be closer to 10%.

 

I would like to see them at 50/50. In reality I would feel much better if my wife carried (she has no interest).

 

Ditto. On both points.

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I'd like to see the female CCL holder numbers go up. Currently they're at roughly 1/5th of the male numbers.

 

I am doing my part. I've gotten 35 of my female friends/acquaintances to get their FOIDs and 10 of those have applied/gotten their CCLs. I'd be pleased as 12 mofos if every one of my friends got armed, but a number of them have emotional issues/busts for stupid stuff, so they are unfortunately consigned to potential victim status—which is why I give them knives and teach them prison-stabbing techniques.

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There are two ways (at least) to think about the gender breakdown. The first is what I've shown in the table - that if women FOID holders got FCCLs in the same proportion as men, there would be about 160K FCCLs now, as compared to the actual approximately 120K. The second one is to look at what would happen if women held FOIDs in the same numbers as men, and if women FOID holders held FCCLs in the same proportions of men. In that case there would be about 206K total FCCL holders now.

 

I'd argue that this is an area where women should be able to achieve parity very rapidly, and that as a matter of enlightened self-interest, those who currently have carry licenses - men and women alike - should, like Ronin, Marie, and so many others - do everything in their power to encourage women to apply for them.

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  • 6 months later...

Here are the FCCL data for Illinois, broken down by county, from 12/31/2014, 6/30/2015, and 12/31/2015. I'm still waiting for the FOID data and will publish a more complete spreadsheet when I've got that. Meanwhile, here's a PDF containing the counts along with columns showing percentage change for the entire year and for each half. Note that for the state as a whole, licenses are increasing at a 56.5 annual clip (or is it mag?). Cook, up 58.4%, outpaces the state as a whole.

 

For the 6-county area, here are the rates of increase for 2015. Note that Cook is the only county with a rate higher than the statewide figure.

 

Cook: 58.4%

Kane: 55.5%

Will: 54.8%

DuPage: 52.2%

Lake: 49.0%

McHenry: 48.9%

 

Also, kudos to Schuyler (up 106.5%) and Monroe (up 106.2%), the only counties to more than double their number of licensees.

 

FCCL by IL County 2015.pdf

Edited by Hap
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Here are the FCCL data for Illinois, broken down by county, from 12/31/2014, 6/30/2015, and 12/31/2015. I'm still waiting for the FOID data and will publish a more complete spreadsheet when I've got that. Meanwhile, here's a PDF containing the counts along with columns showing percentage change for the entire year and for each half. Note that for the state as a whole, licenses are increasing at a 56.5 annual clip (or is it mag?). Cook, up 58.4%, outpaces the state as a whole.

 

attachicon.gifFCCL by IL County 2015.pdf

 

The thing to consider with those numbers is that while the state and Cook might be up by over 50 percent from the first to the second year ends, that's actually a significant slowdown and downward trend. Next year, those numbers are predicted to continue to decline. Note that the decline from the first six months in Cook County to the second was 7,676 to 6,277 gained per 6 months, and in Illinois it was 28,439 and 23,363, which was an 18.23 percent and 17.85 percent decrease in the second six month span from the first respectively.

 

This is going to continue along those descending lines, and given the economic, social, and disqualification limitations so perhaps we'd get 50–55 percent of the 2015 amount increases in total over the whole year, so maybe 170–175K by the end of this year, if it weren't an election year and the gun issue being a main point of note. The researchers that I've talked with say that as a result of that, we're likely to get a further bump, but that will be sufficient to galvanize additional license seekers only to the tune of enough to bring the end-of-2016 totals to about 180-185K.

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The thing to consider with those numbers is that while the state and Cook might be up by over 50 percent from the first to the second year ends, that's actually a significant slowdown and downward trend. Next year, those numbers are predicted to continue to decline. Note that the decline from the first six months in Cook County to the second was 7,676 to 6,277 gained per 6 months, and in Illinois it was 28,439 and 23,363, which was an 18.23 percent and 17.85 percent decrease in the second six month span from the first respectively.

 

This is going to continue along those descending lines, and given the economic, social, and disqualification limitations so perhaps we'd get 50–55 percent of the 2015 amount increases in total over the whole year, so maybe 170–175K by the end of this year, if it weren't an election year and the gun issue being a main point of note. The researchers that I've talked with say that as a result of that, we're likely to get a further bump, but that will be sufficient to galvanize additional license seekers only to the tune of enough to bring the end-of-2016 totals to about 180-185K.

 

 

It will take a while before we have enough information to begin to guess what these intra-year fluctuations mean. Meanwhile, the gap between the number of active licenses and what some of us think that number ought to be is best viewed as an opportunity and a call to action.

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The thing to consider with those numbers is that while the state and Cook might be up by over 50 percent from the first to the second year ends, that's actually a significant slowdown and downward trend. Next year, those numbers are predicted to continue to decline. Note that the decline from the first six months in Cook County to the second was 7,676 to 6,277 gained per 6 months, and in Illinois it was 28,439 and 23,363, which was an 18.23 percent and 17.85 percent decrease in the second six month span from the first respectively.

 

This is going to continue along those descending lines, and given the economic, social, and disqualification limitations so perhaps we'd get 50–55 percent of the 2015 amount increases in total over the whole year, so maybe 170–175K by the end of this year, if it weren't an election year and the gun issue being a main point of note. The researchers that I've talked with say that as a result of that, we're likely to get a further bump, but that will be sufficient to galvanize additional license seekers only to the tune of enough to bring the end-of-2016 totals to about 180-185K.

 

 

It will take a while before we have enough information to begin to guess what these intra-year fluctuations mean. Meanwhile, the gap between the number of active licenses and what some of us think that number ought to be is best viewed as an opportunity and a call to action.

 

 

Actually, that's not true. Several groups at various universities in Illinois have been studying this since before CCLs began to be issued, and they are factoring in all sorts of additional socio-economic variables that have been shown to affect acquisition of a CCL by residents of this state. I've seen the computer model projections, as well as have been doing my own statistical predictive analysis of it, and both theirs and mine are spot on (I was only 393 CCLs off of the total this year, and the average estimation by the research groups was just as close or closer). Unless some factor that is completely outside what's being considered comes into play, for either lowering or increasing the rate of license acquisition, the trend is at this point very predictable. I'll even go so far as to make my end of 2016 prediction now and say 184,000 active licenses in the state by December 31. I'm aiming a bit higher than middle of the range, because I think that there will be a couple of surges both early in the year and around the election, so that will push it up a little more, but if it's a lot higher than that, I would be completely shocked.

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I think that even the shortest term of these are four-year spans for data collection and analysis. The reason I have access to them is that these are clients I've done work with in the past for research verification and I'm kind of pulling strings to get a peek at what they're doing. I expect that there are also shorter term studies being done, and by some of the same institutions, but those aren't ones I'm currently tapped into.

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  • 2 weeks later...

After a bit of delay (some due to ISP, the rest due to other factors) here are the year-end FOID and FCCL data for Illinois, broken down by county. I'll post the actual spreadsheets later but for now here are PDFs with the counts of active FOID and FCCL holders by county as of the beginning and end of last year. In the second file counties are sorted in order of decreasing FOID count.

 

The year-end FCCL total is not the same as other year-end totals you've probably seen published, on IC and elsewhere. Those seeking explanations for these differences have my best wishes for a successful search.

 

2015 FOID+FCCL by county.pdf

 

2015 FOID+FCCL by county sorted by FOID.pdf

 

To get to the bottom line, FOID totals for the state increased by 6.3% last year, from 1,824,048 to 1,939,866. FCCL totals, at least according to what I've got, increased 56.5%, from 91,608 to 143,410. When interpreting these numbers it's important not to lose sight of the fact that we live in a state where many elected officials would like all of them to be zero. Or, failing that, they would like the growth rates to be negative.

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I wonder how many with the FCCL carry every day, everywhere they can.

 

My guess is a very small %.

I carry wherever and whenever possible concealed, and FOID transport everywhere else that I can bring an unloaded firearm in a closed case. I would say that I carry 99 percent of the time or more.

Edited by ChicagoRonin70
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