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So here's how I see this all going down...

8x57

By 8x57
in Illinois Right to Keep and Carry

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8x57 Member

8x57

Posted
Posted

Here's my prediction on how things play out, based on what we've seen so far:

 

Tomorrow the Senate will vote on the Chicago no-issue bill. My guess is that it fails, just like it did in the house. This is because there are some Chicago democrats that are absolutely opposed to any carry bill whatsoever. That and the downstate dems aren't going to support this attempt by Chicago anymore than failed past attempts at gun control bills. Remember how Chicago hasn't had the votes to pass any gun bills recently? This won't be any different.

 

Then things will simmer for a week while the machine continues scheming about what game to play next. I think we've already seen their next move, in the thread about Phelps working on another compromise. "This is it!" they will promise Phelps, only to move the goal post again at the last minute just like they've done the last couple times. At that point it will be the end of May with very little time left to do anything in the legislature. This is where Lisa steps in with a petition to either the 7th or SCOTUS for a further stay of the opinion. Based on which court she asks and how quickly they move, we may go over the cliff, at least for a little while.

 

At this point, it could go two ways:

1) The court option ends up being a dead end for Madigan, with SCOTUS denying cert. They will call an emergency session of the GA, in which the machine will try every dirty trick and game in the book to get the best deal they can. However, everyone will know that Chicago doesn't have the votes or the bargaining chip in that circumstance, and I think we'll end up with a pretty decent law.

 

2) Madigan gets her stay if SCOTUS agrees to take the case. In this situation, we'll have to wait for a ruling from SCOTUS affirming the 7th's decision and applying it to the entire nation. Lisa's career will be ruined, as will a large part of the national gun control movement, all because Chicago wouldn't take a reasonable deal in the legislature. Depending on when the ruling comes out, the legislature will hold an emergency session where, once again, we have all the bargaining power.

 

So, I don't think there will be any carry law by June 9th. We may go over the cliff for a while, and Chicago will make it miserable for anyone who gets caught carrying there in the meantime. Eventually though, once we get done with the courts, we should have a very good carry bill. We may have to wait until 2014 though.

 

Thoughts?

BobPistol Member

BobPistol

Posted
Posted

I predict Madigan will use his muscle to push through a crony-issue, Chicago/Cook carveout, no pre-emption, along with huge amounts of training requirements and other requirements. It will cost an arm and a leg, and only the elites and cronies will have one.

 

Remember how TyranniCare was passed, despite 2/3 of Americans hating it They'll use the same method.

vezpa Member

vezpa

Posted
Posted

They are only warming up. Everyone here needs to drill that into their heads over and over.

 

We have all had 1st row tickets to this show before. Lets never forget that.

 

.

GlockShooter Member

GlockShooter

Posted
Posted

Knowing how this state works, it's impossible to guess. I'm sure there is a flurry of activity on both sides in SF right now. The end game should be interesting.

 

I agree. Offer support where you can, but nothing is set in stone yet. It's going to get ugly.

8x57 Member

8x57

Posted
  • Author
Posted

So long as there is still hope for another option, the machine is never ever going to let Phelps/NRA have any input whatsoever into a carry bill. They've been exhausting their other options. Once the Senate vote fails, they'll be down to their last one - the appeal to SCOTUS. We haven't seen that one yet because they've been waiting while they exhaust every other option they have.

 

The only way we're going to get any input into the law is once the SCOTUS option is dead. Then the Machine will be forced to play along. I must confess that I have so idea what this will look like because I've never seen the Machine full-out lose, like they will once we're done with the Courts.

 

One thing I do know is that if I was Phelps, I would be SERIOUSLY considering switching parties. To devote a good part of your career to something, have the time come to pass the law, and then get repeatedly sabotaged by the leadership of your own party...? I have great respect for that man's even temper and perseverance, but there would come a point where I would have had enough.

StreuB1 Member

StreuB1

Posted
Posted

Hey, dinosaurs need health insurance too.

 

Haha - Clever girl!

 

TyGuy is a girl???

 

http://images4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130223000932/adventuretimewithfinnandjake/images/b/b3/Kevin-Butler-Mind-Blown.gif

DoverGunner Member

DoverGunner

Posted
Posted

Here's my prediction on how things play out, based on what we've seen so far:

 

Tomorrow the Senate will vote on the Chicago no-issue bill. My guess is that it fails, just like it did in the house. This is because there are some Chicago democrats that are absolutely opposed to any carry bill whatsoever. That and the downstate dems aren't going to support this attempt by Chicago anymore than failed past attempts at gun control bills. Remember how Chicago hasn't had the votes to pass any gun bills recently? This won't be any different.

 

Then things will simmer for a week while the machine continues scheming about what game to play next. I think we've already seen their next move, in the thread about Phelps working on another compromise. "This is it!" they will promise Phelps, only to move the goal post again at the last minute just like they've done the last couple times. At that point it will be the end of May with very little time left to do anything in the legislature. This is where Lisa steps in with a petition to either the 7th or SCOTUS for a further stay of the opinion. Based on which court she asks and how quickly they move, we may go over the cliff, at least for a little while.

They already have it Planned , do not underestimate them , Do Not over estimate our Progress

At this point, it could go two ways:

1) The court option ends up being a dead end for Madigan, with SCOTUS denying cert. They will call an emergency session of the GA, in which the machine will try every dirty trick and game in the book to get the best deal they can. However, everyone will know that Chicago doesn't have the votes or the bargaining chip in that circumstance, and I think we'll end up with a pretty decent law.

I hope you are Right

2) Madigan gets her stay if SCOTUS agrees to take the case. In this situation, we'll have to wait for a ruling from SCOTUS affirming the 7th's decision and applying it to the entire nation. Lisa's career will be ruined, as will a large part of the national gun control movement, all because Chicago wouldn't take a reasonable deal in the legislature. Depending on when the ruling comes out, the legislature will hold an emergency session where, once again, we have all the bargaining power.

Again Over estimating our side and Underestimating them

So, I don't think there will be any carry law by June 9th. We may go over the cliff for a while, and Chicago will make it miserable for anyone who gets caught carrying there in the meantime. Eventually though, once we get done with the courts, we should have a very good carry bill. We may have to wait until 2014 though.

I agree nothing by the 9th

2014 if it goes to court you are an optimist

Thoughts?

jester121 Member

jester121

Posted
Posted
Lisa's career will be ruined,

 

I don't agree with this. In the circles she runs in, failure is to be celebrated, even worn as a badge of courage, and with the liberal establishment and media ready to loudly support her no one will even remember. Those with clout get to write the history and their willing accomplices hammer their version home until it is fact.

 

heck, I was listening to WGN a few weeks ago (actually it was after that kerfluffle over NY permit disclosures) and some lady called in saying how glad she was that Lisa Madigan stood up for the citizens of Illinois and prevented the ISP from releasing FOID card info. After I swerved the car back on the road I tried to call in to explain that Lisa was the one trying to screw us over, but the segment was finished.

Molly B. Member

Molly B.

Posted
Posted

I predict Sen. Raoul's bill will be defeated, either in the Senate or in the House if it makes it back over there. I predict we'll come back next week with a good, although not perfect bill, that we can accept. Things in Springfield are like quicksilver - they can change almost instantly and the last word isn't the last word until they "Take the Record" of the votes.

 

Our message continues to be shall issue, statewide preemption, commercially available training, public transportation. Don't let up on that message.

C0untZer0 Member

C0untZer0

Posted
Posted

Oh ya I see IllinoisCarry.com's slip now - cool.

 

Hopefully I can get some of the students from Students for Concealed Carry to file witness slips tomorrow... as well as talk to the reps who filed slips supporting Kwame's bill.

snubjob Member

snubjob

Posted
Posted

Here's my prediction on how things play out, based on what we've seen so far:

 

Tomorrow the Senate will vote on the Chicago no-issue bill. My guess is that it fails, just like it did in the house. This is because there are some Chicago democrats that are absolutely opposed to any carry bill whatsoever. That and the downstate dems aren't going to support this attempt by Chicago anymore than failed past attempts at gun control bills. Remember how Chicago hasn't had the votes to pass any gun bills recently? This won't be any different.

 

Then things will simmer for a week while the machine continues scheming about what game to play next. I think we've already seen their next move, in the thread about Phelps working on another compromise. "This is it!" they will promise Phelps, only to move the goal post again at the last minute just like they've done the last couple times. At that point it will be the end of May with very little time left to do anything in the legislature. This is where Lisa steps in with a petition to either the 7th or SCOTUS for a further stay of the opinion. Based on which court she asks and how quickly they move, we may go over the cliff, at least for a little while.

They already have it Planned , do not underestimate them , Do Not over estimate our Progress

At this point, it could go two ways:

1) The court option ends up being a dead end for Madigan, with SCOTUS denying cert. They will call an emergency session of the GA, in which the machine will try every dirty trick and game in the book to get the best deal they can. However, everyone will know that Chicago doesn't have the votes or the bargaining chip in that circumstance, and I think we'll end up with a pretty decent law.

I hope you are Right

2) Madigan gets her stay if SCOTUS agrees to take the case. In this situation, we'll have to wait for a ruling from SCOTUS affirming the 7th's decision and applying it to the entire nation. Lisa's career will be ruined, as will a large part of the national gun control movement, all because Chicago wouldn't take a reasonable deal in the legislature. Depending on when the ruling comes out, the legislature will hold an emergency session where, once again, we have all the bargaining power.

Again Over estimating our side and Underestimating them

So, I don't think there will be any carry law by June 9th. We may go over the cliff for a while, and Chicago will make it miserable for anyone who gets caught carrying there in the meantime. Eventually though, once we get done with the courts, we should have a very good carry bill. We may have to wait until 2014 though.

I agree nothing by the 9th

2014 if it goes to court you are an optimist

Thoughts?Sounds pretty accurate.

Grey Beret Member

Grey Beret

Posted
Posted

I am afraid that any bill that is brought to the floor will be done before we know whether or not it is worthy of our "acceptance". I want to see the bill so I can tell my rep how I think about it. He is my rep and he needs to know my thoughts. I didn't vote for Phelps, Molly or Todd. Now, while I think they have all been working really hard and are all really smart, the decision should come down to the great unwashed. I don't want anyone, including my rep, to be making decisions for me without my input.

 

If the thought is, "Well, this is the best we can do", then it may not be good enough. I would rather have the full boat of crap from the antis rather than to live with some piece of crap that "we" agreed to. A firing squad that gives me the opportunity to pull the trigger instead of someone else, still results in death. I refuse to pull the trigger.

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