What are the potential outcomes for the Moore case at the USSC?

[xd9subcompact]

Is this case, if it makes it to the USSC, about making the state allow permitted concealed carry or is it about making the state allow unpermitted open carry and permitted concealed carry? As I read Heller, it looks like government could regulate the manner of concealed carry. But that seems to imply that open carry cannot be restricted, except for some "sensitive" places. As I read the 7th court order, I get the feeling that if the state goes ahead and passed a reasonable concealed carry law, that could be the end of the matter. But if they don't pass it, they run the risk of ending up in the USSC being asked why open carry without a permit should be unlawful.

[cm.stites]

its either gonna decide whether its a right or whether its not a right... i dont think the supreme court is wanting to tackle the may issue vs shall issue or they would of taken kachalsky... its also about 50/50 on if scotus will even grant cert.. if they follow thier own rules then cert wont be granted as theres no conflict in the rulings madigan used to ask for a extension.

[Bud]

The Supreme Court will not get involved unless the State files for cert

 

Whether or not Lisa does that remains to be seen.

 

The next four weeks should be quite stimulating.

[TyGuy]

The Supreme Court will not get involved unless the State files for cert

 

Whether or not Lisa does that remains to be seen.

 

The next four weeks should be quite stimulating.

We also have Woollard in caee Madigan doesn't file cert here. I know the thread is specifically about Moore, but we still have options.

[KarlJ]

State doesn't file cert.

 

State files cert. SCOTUS rejects.

 

State files cert. SCOTUS accepts and upholds the 7ths. ruling

 

The 2nd clearly says "to bear".

49 states have a CC law.

There is no chance we can lose.

[skinnyb82]

I think the better question is will she file cert petition if she can't get a stay of the mandate. I don't think so.

 

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[TyGuy]

Can she ask for a stay without filing for cert???

[skinnyb82]

Yes she could petition CA7. Will she get it? I'd put my money on no.

 

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[POAT54]

What I find interesting is the Moore case is about the state BANNING carry of a loaded gun. I looked at Lisa's file for an extension to file a cert. All the case's she quoted were about the states right to regulate the carry. The 7th ruled an out right ban violates the 2A. I would be surprised if she filed and was accepted by SCOTUS.

She is just maneuvering, for time. IMO she figures the tighter the time the more likely a May(NOT) issue will be passed.

[bob]

There are a bunch of ways this can go. The end result is tough to call being as there are just so many permutations of what can happen along the way.

 

The end could be as simple as something like VT carry to no change at all in status quo. I would bet it will be somewhere in between those extremes, but where it falls is just a guess.

 

If I had to guess, I would say the most likely immediate scenario is

 

cert filed for

cert granted

mandate stayed

june 2014 we get a narrow victory and eventually the trial court oversees whatever remedy there is if needed

 

However none of those are certain.

 

It might be that the other side becomes convinced there is too much of a downside and accepts the idea of some kind of shall issue pre-empted LTC. Personally, I think as far as pre-emption goes we should accept nothing less than complete pre-emption at the state level over the whole field of arms, ammo, accessories, components, sharp things, clubs, etc, and self defense. We will never have a better shot at it.

[skinnyb82]

Her petition would have to argue there's a circuit split. There is no such split. Last I checked NY and MD don't have a 100% ban on carry.

 

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[xd9subcompact]

I guess I am missing the answers. I was wondering if we are going to be arguing that we deserve open carry w/ no permits ALONG WITH a shall issue concealed carry w/ a permit, OR are we only arguing (focusing) that we deserve a shall issue concealed carry w/ a permit.

[cm.stites]

I guess I am missing the answers. I was wondering if we are going to be arguing that we deserve open carry w/ no permits ALONG WITH a shall issue concealed carry w/ a permit, OR are we only arguing (focusing) that we deserve a shall issue concealed carry w/ a permit.

neither.. our case involves a outright ban on concealed carry it doesnt involve shall or may issue...

[Brad O.]

An outright ban on carry, period.

[skinnyb82]

We will be arguing that an outright ban on carry be it open, concealed, is unconstitutional as per the opinion handed down by CA7. Lisa will argue that it is, and the other 49 are wrong.

 

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[Bud]

actually, the arguing is over, we won.

 

The only way we have to argue again is if the AG files for cert and it's granted. then everything comes to a screeching halt. But if she does that, and loses at SCOTUS (and odds are she would) then the only thing that comes to a screeching halt is her political career which would be over. The national leftist-progressives would never support her in any other campaign and the Illinois residents would laugh her out of the State.

 

She could become a conservative hero for doing that, sort of a back door plan to gain popular support. "Hey, I'm the one that got rid of "may issue" throughout the entire country".

[Professor Wheezy]

actually, the arguing is over, we won.

 

The only way we have to argue again is if the AG files for cert and it's granted. then everything comes to a screeching halt. But if she does that, and loses at SCOTUS (and odds are she would) then the only thing that comes to a screeching halt is her political career which would be over. The national leftist-progressives would never support her in any other campaign and the Illinois residents would laugh her out of the State.

 

She could become a conservative hero for doing that, sort of a back door plan to gain popular support. "Hey, I'm the one that got rid of "may issue" throughout the entire country".

I asked my local Union President to play a word association game. I said "Madigan". Molly wouldn't like what the president said back. Needless to say the Madigan name is now engendering lots of negative support from ALL over the place. (I think most if not all people in IL DO see them as one in the same, and rightfully so) Lisa has lost the Teacher's unions due to her father's pension planning and she is clearly not looking good with gun owners either. This is one case where politics is certainly making for strange bedfellows.