Posted 24 March 2012 - 10:54 AM
As matters stand now, the bill will not get to the Governor without a super-majority (71+) in the House, because it won't be allowed to pass the House without 71. The Senate might do it differently, but it's likely that the super-majority is there for us in the Senate anyway.
I believe that (again, as matters stand now) Governor Quinn will follow through and veto the bill, knowing that it only came to him because we had enough votes to override a veto in the first place. At that point, the game will probably switch from offense to defense. He'll be trying to separate votes from the coalition in the House to get our majority under 71 so that his veto will stand. We will be trying to keep everyone together for 60 days. As the 60-day deadline nears, he'll have to issue the veto and take his chances, because after 60 the bill becomes law if he doesn't. So the question will be: for 60 days, can we protect our majority against the Governor's attempts to chip away at it by either threatening, cajoling, or trading with wavering legislators?
But as Vandermyde points out, all this is subject to change without notice. If Shepard comes back a victory, Quinn could easily say "Well, I tried, but the activist judges in the NRA's pockets are forcing my hand." Or, if he wants to be even more subtle, he can issue his veto right away, knowing that it can be overridden, and then move on to other things instead of fighting to chip down the majority below 71. In other words, issue the veto, let it be overridden, and settle for having the cover. "Look, I did what I could--and kept my promise!--I vetoed the NRA's vigilante protection program bill the day after it passed. But they had a super-majority in both houses, and with the way the NRA's activist judges turned on the people of Illinois, there was nothing more to be done. That's why it's so crucially important that the people of Illinois send me back to the Governor's office in two years, so that I can fight to . . . . . "
Be an IGOLD Marshal! Your mother would be proud!
"What if they threw a huge pro-gun demonstration in an anti-gun political capital and nobody volunteered?"
(With apologies to Bertolt Brecht. Sorry, Mr. Brecht.)