Anti Gun Poll - Fix the FOID

[countyline]

https://capitolfax.com/2019/05/09/g-pac-poll-66-percent-support-fix-the-foid-act/

 

 

[Molly B.]

A poll by a gun control group found that a majority of Illinois voters support gun control?

 

Why am I not surprised?!

[Raw Power]

I'd love to see their polling data.

[Molly B.]

I'd love to see their polling data.

 

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T-mB_JZndcCRIKbPZJpH4bFbQyt6zibh/view

[countyline]

Recent clients
include U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the
Democratic Party of Illinois, Defenders of Wildlife, and the American Civil Liberties Union.

 

 

Nothing to see here folks....

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T-mB_JZndcCRIKbPZJpH4bFbQyt6zibh/view

[Euler]

 

I'd love to see their polling data.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T-mB_JZndcCRIKbPZJpH4bFbQyt6zibh/view

 

Survey Methodology: From April 25-30, 2019, Tulchin Research conducted a survey among 600 likely November 2020 voters in Illinois, using live professional interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones as well as collecting data online through e-mails from the voter file. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4 percentage points.

 

About Tulchin Research

Tulchin Research is an award-winning public opinion research firm with offices in San Francisco, Chicago, and Denver. We provide research and strategic consulting to electoral campaigns, advocacy organizations, government agencies, and Fortune 500 companies. Recent clients include U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic Party of Illinois, Defenders of Wildlife, and the American Civil Liberties Union.

[Bubbacs]

“Five innocent lives in Aurora, Illinois were lost because a system that should have prevented a known felon from having access to guns failed,” said Kathleen Sances, president and CEO of G-PAC.

 

I'd have to say this is a false statement. The system didn't fail in Illinois.

The system in another state failed and failed badly! Had they reported this person as a felon and passed this information thru law enforcement agency’s, this guy would not have even been able to get a FOID card.

 

So the system in Illinois was spot on, he filled out the paper work and got a card, he WAS checked/cleared, boom boom.

 

Now I'm for this guy, far from it, but the narrative being laid out in the media and the Anti 2a groups is just wrong.

[Rangerdeepv]

Another half baked and cooked up poll by the anti gunners. It even looks real! Does it pass the smell test? No way..............

[springfield shooter]

The polls that count are found in the Sanctuary County movement. What do they say?

[G214me]

This is another typical fraud by the anti's.

[Raw Power]

 

 

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T-mB_JZndcCRIKbPZJpH4bFbQyt6zibh/view

 

The math doesn't add up:

 

 

 

The bill notably receives strong support from both women (70% support to 25% oppose)

and men (61% support to 38% oppose); from voters age 18-54 (64% support to 34%

oppose) and those age 55 and older (67% support to 28% oppose); and among black

voters (82% support to 10% oppose), white voters (65% support to 35% oppose), and

Latino voters (61% support to 31% oppose).

 

How is that possible if they're claiming: Two-thirds of voters (66%) support the Fix the FOID Act,

including nearly half of voters (47%) who say they strongly support it, while 31% of voters oppose

it and 3% are undecided?

 

Did they only poll 17 black voters, and round down the opposes?

Because otherwise, the numbers don't seem to add up there, and if interviewed 34 (or any higher multiples of 17) then how could the 82% opposition not skew the support much further than the 66% support that they're claiming?

[byxlaw]

Let's assume all %s add upp. But, 600? Very representative of the whole IL....

[smokehouse]

Let's assume all %s add upp. But, 600? Very representative of the whole IL....

 

Here's the comment I made:

 

What exactly is a pool of 600 representative of? With about 9.89 MILLION Ill residents of voting age, 600 people wouldn’t even comprise 1% of that pool…not by a long shot. 600 people isn’t even 1 ten-thousandth of the voting population. Making a bold statement of “Voters overwhelmingly support” seems a bit of a stretch given the extremely small amount of people that they actually asked.

[Euler]

 

Let's assume all %s add upp. But, 600? Very representative of the whole IL....

Here's the comment I made:

 

What exactly is a pool of 600 representative of? ...

 

The % error is approximately 1/sqrt(N). N = 600 -> error = 4%

 

The difficulty is how they selected and represented the sample population. The sample population is only an accurate subpopulation if it's random across the whole population. Their sample consisted of people who actually agreed to be polled via phone and people who responded to an email. (Personally, I hang up on solicitaion calls and delete such emails as spam.) Even if their sample responses were evenly distributed across the state (which is a big assumption), they didn't break down how many were phone vs email. They left out how many total people they contacted. They should have included what % of people failed to respond.

[steveTA84]

Yep. 600 people are going to help determine what happens to the 2,000,000+ FOID cars holders in the state..........

[smokehouse]

 

The % error is approximately 1/sqrt(N). N = 600 -> error = 4%

 

The difficulty is how they selected and represented the sample population. The sample population is only an accurate subpopulation if it's random across the whole population. Their sample consisted of people who actually agreed to be polled via phone and people who responded to an email. (Personally, I hang up on solicitaion calls and delete such emails as spam.) Even if their sample responses were evenly distributed across the state (which is a big assumption), they didn't break down how many were phone vs email. They left out how many total people they contacted. They should have included what % of people failed to respond.

 

 

What always irks me is when these poll makers make the claim of "voters overwhelmingly support". Next thing, our wonderful governor will be on TV referencing polls like this saying the same thing.

 

This may be my opinion...but there is no way to get a balanced representation of the opinion of over 9 million voters by asking 600 of them what they think. Making a bold claim with that data is even more misleading and irritating.

[Raw Power]

 

Let's assume all %s add upp. But, 600? Very representative of the whole IL....

 

Here's the comment I made:

 

What exactly is a pool of 600 representative of? With about 9.89 MILLION Ill residents of voting age, 600 people wouldn’t even comprise 1% of that pool…not by a long shot. 600 people isn’t even 1 ten-thousandth of the voting population. Making a bold statement of “Voters overwhelmingly support” seems a bit of a stretch given the extremely small amount of people that they actually asked.

 

 

I'd like to see the list of questions asked, and the order in which they asked them. Also, what questions would have the survey end...

 

"Do you own guns? Yes? Oh, well thank you very much..." click.

[Raw Power]

 

 

Let's assume all %s add upp. But, 600? Very representative of the whole IL....

Here's the comment I made:

 

 

 

The % error is approximately 1/sqrt(N). N = 600 -> error = 4%

 

The difficulty is how they selected and represented the sample population. The sample population is only an accurate subpopulation if it's random across the whole population. Their sample consisted of people who actually agreed to be polled via phone and people who responded to an email. (Personally, I hang up on solicitaion calls and delete such emails as spam.) Even if their sample responses were evenly distributed across the state (which is a big assumption), they didn't break down how many were phone vs email. They left out how many total people they contacted. They should have included what % of people failed to respond.

 

 

They couldn't have possibly had an accurate sampling, because by the best calculations I could figure out, they interviewed 17 black voters.

 

17 out of 600 is 2.83%. Black voters make up apx 14% of Illlinois population. Now that in and of itself doesn't prove a completely faulty polling, but it shows that there are some pretty huge gaps in their polling tactics. I'd argue that +/- 4% is very very generous given that we're looking at a potential 14% issue right off the bat. And this would be something that they would allege would swing the poll in their favor.

It doesn't add up.

[Raw Power]

 

 

The % error is approximately 1/sqrt(N). N = 600 -> error = 4%

 

The difficulty is how they selected and represented the sample population. The sample population is only an accurate subpopulation if it's random across the whole population. Their sample consisted of people who actually agreed to be polled via phone and people who responded to an email. (Personally, I hang up on solicitaion calls and delete such emails as spam.) Even if their sample responses were evenly distributed across the state (which is a big assumption), they didn't break down how many were phone vs email. They left out how many total people they contacted. They should have included what % of people failed to respond.

 

 

What always irks me is when these poll makers make the claim of "voters overwhelmingly support". Next thing, our wonderful governor will be on TV referencing polls like this saying the same thing.

 

This may be my opinion...but there is no way to get a balanced representation of the opinion of over 9 million voters by asking 600 of them what they think. Making a bold claim with that data is even more misleading and irritating.

 

 

That's how all polls work. The average sampling is never more than a few thousand. The means for selecting that small group is supposed to be a microcosm of the greater population though.

 

 

 

Additionally, researchers are called to disclose fully to those who sponsor surveys the limitations and shortcomings of the survey and to avoid use of methods that deliberately introduce bias into the results. A survey report should include information on who sponsored it, who conducted it, exact wording and sequencing of questions, description of the population and how a sample was selected, sample sizes and sampling tolerance, and the method place and dates of data collection.

 

https://www.qualtrics.com/blog/ethical-issues-for-online-surveys/

[kevinmcc]

Hate garbage research like this.

They are leading the people with questions to get results they want...

People are not informed about the issue.