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SUNY Professor: Trump Now Has 87% Chance of Winning – Tea Party Journal.com

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By 1700715
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1700715 Member

1700715

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http://teapartyjournal.com/suny-professer-trump-now-has-87-chance-of-winning/

 

 

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

 

 

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kwc Member

kwc

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This guy is an outlier. I realize many Trump supporters (including many here on IC) believe the polls are all rigged, but with a couple of rare exceptions, the vast majority of the polls suggest a significant Trump loss. They can't all be rigged.

 

As much as it hurts to face reality, I'll go out on a limb and predict a 5%-7% win in the popular vote for Clinton (and 315+ electoral college votes with 270 needed to declare victory), and either a 50:50 Senate makeup (giving dems a majority with VP as tie-breaker) or 51:49 (dem advantage) once the dust settles. GOP will hold onto the House.

 

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chislinger Member

chislinger

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He might have 87% of winning the popular vote, but he has zero chance of winning the electoral college.

Hillary is already too far ahead in that area. The election is already over.

 

She's won.

The IBD/TIPP poll has Trump ahead, and that poll was the most accurate one in 2012 when it had Obama up by 3 over Romney.

 

The media is obviously in the bag for Hillary and are trying to keep Trump voters from the polls by making them think it's hopeless.

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jsg-07 Member

jsg-07

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BC and KWC - I respectfully disagree and want others to understand why. Look at the leaked e mails. It was noted that they are using the media polls to her advantage. Why? Because they can. When ABC, CBS, CNN, etc., have a desire for her to win, they can and they have apparently intereviewed folks who they knew would disagree with Trump.

 

Look at the unbiased, non - media polls. As of RIGHT NOW on Real Clear Politics Trump is leading in Rasmussen, and they are tied or within 3 points of each other on all others.

 

Forget the polls. Just please, everyone go vote.

 

On that note, I'll even hijack slightly here and ask that all of the libertarian folks get on the bandwagon too. Listen I don't like Trump. At all. In fact, if you read my old posts you will see this and my support for the libertarian candidate in hopes that we can one day have a viable third party. However, its just not happening this time around. Johnson had promise but he's kind of a dumbass (IMO) and hasn't been taken seriously by independents the way I think someone line Rand Paul would have had he gone that route. Anyway, as I said, I get it, I was a staunch L Party supporter and hated the two party system. Still do. But if you DO BELIEVE the polls look at this this way, Johnson has about 6%. take half of that and give it back to Trump and I think Trump wins. I'm a single issue voter (i'll give you three guesses :) ) but I really don't think people grasp how important the supreme court is.

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jsg-07 Member

jsg-07

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If the polls were rigged the media would have Trump up. What better way to get Hillary supporters out there than to crush Trump? With Hillary up voters are less likely to go out and vote.

 

Sure if it were within a few points. Problem is, ABC, CNN, etc., keeps talking like its over or have her winning by double digits. Much more likely that fence sitting Trump people will just say screw it and not vote at all.

 

Regardless, this isn't an opinion here, its a fact. E Mails exist showing how and why it was done. Incredibly sketchy campaign tactics that should make anyone who supports democracy want to see this woman in prison.

 

Not a fan of his either, but my god, Blago gets 14 years and she gets a shot at the White House... BS...

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kwc Member

kwc

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Regardless, this isn't an opinion here, its a fact. E Mails exist showing how and why it was done. Incredibly sketchy campaign tactics that should make anyone who supports democracy want to see this woman in prison.

 

 

 

Are you referring to the emails from 2008, two Presidential election cycles ago? Or were there later emails confirming this intent?

 

I do agree much of the media is "in the bag" for the democrats, but I have a tough time believing they would all deliberately skew their polling to manipulate the election--knowing that their credibility would be completely shot (yes, it can go lower) if their results are too far off once November 8th has passed us by.

 

Expecting all of the major media outlets to be complicit in this effort is, IMHO, a bit far-fetched. That's getting a little too conspiratorial for my comfort.

 

We'll know for sure on November 9th.

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jsg-07 Member

jsg-07

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http://www.thelibertyconservative.com/rigged-leaked-emails-reveal-media-rigging-polls-hillary/

 

does it matter if the e mail was from 08 if it describes what's happening today?

 

Also - this was a good read.

 

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/23/timely-wikileaks-email-highlights-deception-within-media-polling/

 

most of what is labeled the "worst of the worst" are the polls showing her "commanding" lead.

 

I don't know, I can't predict the future but as someone who loved him some Rand Paul and Ted Cruz from the start all I was told was that there was no way Trump would be the nominee and here we are. Turn on the news and see a Hillary rally with like 37 people there and then see Trump using jumbotrons in the parking lot of major arenas for people who couldn't get in. Not saying Hillary wont win, just saying its not even remotely close to over. Just get out and vote!

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WARFACE Member

WARFACE

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He might have 87% of winning the popular vote, but he has zero chance of winning the electoral college.

Hillary is already too far ahead in that area. The election is already over.

 

She's won.

What ? You can't know that until the votes are cast and counted. That's just silly to even say.

 

$Better turn in his guns before the line gets real long$

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mic6010 Member

mic6010

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Current estimates show that she has around 305 or more electoral votes while Trump has about 147. Even if he were to get all the toss-up states, he'd still lose.

 

Trump is too far behind to ever catch up.

Well I guess if that's the case why even have an election. Lets just crown her now. Why are they even spending so much time pandering to those battle ground states for when you already have the vote figured out huh lol. Any projections you are basing that on are simply outright lies. Nobody knows whats gonna happen and the best truthful estimates actually have Trump slightly ahead. We shall see.

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POAT54 Member

POAT54

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Speaking of pols http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2015/mar/18/lena-taylor/most-nra-members-back-background-checks-all-gun-pu/

"Most NRA members back background checks on all gun purchases". or "74 percent of NRA members support background checks of gun purchasers.".

 

Push poll is "an ostensible opinion poll in which the true objective is to sway voters using loaded or manipulative questions."

https://www.google.com/search?q=Push+poll&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8.

 

I guess we can all sleep in on the 8th. Game over.

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Xwing Member

Xwing

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Turnout wins this election. And how do you keep Trump voters at home? Why, you tell them he can't win!

 

TURNOUT.

 

This. While Hillary has a large advantage, it's not over until it's over. And the media's doing everything to tell people "the election's already over" for the sole purpose of disenfranchising Trump voters.

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kwc Member

kwc

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When the polls are correct again this year, I wonder how many here will admit they were wrong?

 

They won't. There's always an excuse and a narrative waiting in the wings.

 

If Clinton wins, the claim will be that the polls were right, but the end result was distorted due to one (or both) of two reasons:

 

(1) Voter fraud (even if Clinton wins by 15 million+ votes, they will assert "large-scale cheating")

 

(2) Polls suppressing GOP voting and serving as a self-fulfilling prophecy

 

I want a turnaround too, and by NO MEANS want anyone to stay home. If anything, the down-ticket elections are every bit as important. Hopefully the dire predictions will motivate more to get to the voting booth on Nov 8. But I won't bury my head in the sand and ignore the data, either.

 

For the record, I voted several weeks ago (absentee vote in PA).

 

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transplant Member

transplant

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The polls might be right, but we know there is a HUGE propoganda war being waged by Correct The Record's social media trolls, push polls, and the maintstream media's choices of what stories to cover and which ones to virtually ignore.

 

Every one needs to GET OUT AND VOTE and everyone needs to be ENCOURAGING OTHERS to get out and vote.

 

Even though we are in a blue state, we still socialize with others in person and on social media and we need to be encouraging others to vote there rather than falling into a 'woe is me woe is america'

 

We don't know if the polls are accurate or not, so we need TURNOUT.

 

Trump can still pull it off.

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xrlke Member

xrlke

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I know how I'm voting and most of my friends and relatives, but I honestly don't care how people vote. I want to see registered voting turnout in the 80 % range. If you don't have a legitimate excuse for voting ( car wreck, seriously ill, etc.), then I don't want to hear any complaints about the outcome, what ever it may be.
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GTX63 Member

GTX63

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I could go with a number of theories as believable-

 

The polls are skewed. Yes, it is in the best interests of the pollsters be to accurate since it is their reputation at stake. That is also a naive and simplistic point of view.

That is like saying a home appraiser always gives a purely independent assessment, when if they continually cost the bank business because their valuations didn't match the loan the banks would no longer use them.

 

The polls are accurate and Hillary will win by what the majority currently state. But which came first? The percentages or how they are developed?

 

Trump will win. He has defied most of the odds up to this point, and in an election comparable to no other, how can you depend on past models?

There are several examples of major pollsters being wrong in big name elections (ie Ky Governor).

 

I think the powers that be would prefer that we feel free to complain but regardless of what is happening to the country, never believe it will affect us personally.

 

I don't wear tin foil since it doesn't keep its shape. I like a lead hat. It's so heavy I only wear it when I need it.

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DD123 Member

DD123

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What doesn't make sense about the polling numbers is the fact that if you just look at their campaign stops, Trump and Pence pack stadiums and often times have huge screens outside for people who weren't able to get in.

 

When Clinton or Kaine have a campaign rally, the media has to frame the shots so that it looks like they're packed, when in reality there are less than a hundred people there.

 

Even here in Illinois, I don't see a whole lot of yard signs with Clinton's name on them, whereas I do see Trump signs.

 

Carter at this point in the race led by double digits. Reagan came back and whipped him senseless.

 

Then we have Brexit to look at.

 

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Trump won a state that is "guaranteed" for Hillary.

 

I have a feeling that this election will be a giant one finger salute from everyone that has suffered financially since 2000. Trump goes to middle class areas, and talks about how he will end the various deals that have shipped jobs overseas because they've all harmed the middle class.

 

I've said this since the primaries, but I don't like Trump. I personally feel that he's an idiot, but he's not Hillary. Her rhetoric is dangerous, not his, for the simple fact that she will actually take us to war with other countries. She's the military industrial complex candidate.

 

I'll vote for Trump even though he's stated that he'll end offshoring. I'm in offshoring right now so I'd more than likely be out of a job. I'm fine with that. I'll just find another job. Will he be able to end offshoring? Maybe, maybe not. I suspect it's far too complex a thing to end outright, but if he's going to try, then so be it.

 

What we'll see this election is tons of voter fraud, as already evidenced by Project Veritas and Wikileaks. People on the left aren't deaf. While they might not publicly state their support of Hillary, I have a feeling that many of them will turn on her and vote for Trump when they find themselves all alone in the voting booth. Hillary embodies what's wrong with our country. She's someone who has gained an enormous amount of wealth "in public service". She's someone that the rules do not apply to and I don't know how she's still not charged....with anything. It's mind boggling.

 

Just yesterday she stopped at an early voting location. Apparently that's not entirely legal. Will that be investigated? If so, will she be charged? My guess is no and NO.

 

As I said earlier, I think Trump's an idiot and was shocked to see that he wound up as the nominee. Honestly though, if Cruz won, we'd be hearing much of the same. If Bush won, we'd hear nothing but stuff about his family. If Rand won, what would we be hearing? There's not much that can be thrown at him. There are emails released by Wikileaks showing that Rand was the one candidate that they would've been worried about. They actually goaded us into nominating Trump because he'd be the most likely candidate they could beat because they had ample crap to fling at him. I hope this bites them in the rear similar to how the unions here were telling their members to get out and vote for Rauner during the primaries because he stood the least chance of beating Quinn.

 

Are the polls manipulated? I've seen some of their methodologies and they routinely oversample lefties. They also leave out millennials. Some of the polls are even being tied back to Clinton super pac's.

 

Remember, don't forget about human nature. I might be voting for Trump, but when I see something negative about Trump, I read it. I'm sure that people on the left do the same when they see something negative about Clinton. People see that the media has not paid all that much attention to Wikileaks. People see the comments from Clinton, the Clinton camp, and Donna Brazile being asked about what the wrote in emails, and immediately blaming Russia instead of talking about the contents of the emails. I routinely call the American public dumb, but to ignore all of this would put your IQ below that of a chimpanzee.

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cls74 Member

cls74

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I'm a realist, as it stands now I expect Hillary to win albeit by a smaller margin than polling suggests.

 

I'm also an optimist and hold out hope that wikileaks is holding back the nail in the coffin release on Hillary. Rumors are rumors, and some of them have been that there is serious Clinton Foundation emails/documents lingering to be released. We've also had several big "surprises" fall by the wayside and never materialize.

 

My hope is that Trump keeps on issues for the final 2 weeks and hopefully sometime mid next week the bombshell that none of the media outlets can ignore is dropped on Hillary.

 

There have been big 2 week swings, there's still 2 weeks left and even if he only gets to within 2-3(inside the margin of error) by election day, that may sway a few last minute conscience votes to swing the election the other way.

 

 

Dream big and get out and vote.

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Bitter Clinger Member

Bitter Clinger

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I'm also an optimist and hold out hope that wikileaks is holding back the nail in the coffin release on Hillary. Rumors are rumors, and some of them have been that there is serious Clinton Foundation emails/documents lingering to be released.

I'm hoping this too. Didn't WikiLeaks say that it had some bombshell videos about Clinton that they were going to release? We have yet to see them.

 

Most of the stuff they release is pretty nasty and damning to Hillary, but it's far to complex for most regular voters to grasp. What we need is a video showing Hillary saying something completely, mind-blowingly terrible and have it played repeatedly on the news. I doubt WikiLeaks has anything that juicy, but maybe we'll get lucky and they'll release something good.

 

They'd better do it soon though. It's getting close to GO time.

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Jeffrey Member

Jeffrey

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I don't think it matters what Wiki releases at this point. Anything that could harm her campaign will not be mentioned on any MSM. This entire election IS rigged by media not hardly mentioning any of the corruption that has been shown clearly through the email hacks. Any time the Wiki is mentioned they(D) deflect to Russia stealing them so they can't be trusted sources. Icing the cake with the idea that Trump is directing Russia to release them.

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