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The NRA Might Be Weakened. Gun Rights Voters Are Not.


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https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/08/nra-gun-rights-voters-392604

 

The NRA Might Be Weakened. Gun Rights Voters Are Not.

And that presents a challenge for Democrats determined to press for gun control in a Biden administration.

By BILL SCHER

08/08/2020 07:00 AM EDT

Democrats rejoiced at the news that the New York Attorney General is aiming to dissolve the National Rifle Association. Mondaire Jones, the progressive rising star expected to win New York’s 17th Congressional District seat, Thursday summed up the prevailing Democratic view: “Dissolving the NRA would remove one of the biggest impediments to gun safety measures at the state and federal level.”

But that’s a dangerous assumption for Democrats to make. Even if the NRA is gone or tied down by litigation, about 43 percent of Americans will still live in gun-owning households....Other competing gun rights groups such as Gun Owners of America, National Association for Gun Rights and the Second Amendment Foundation would still channel the views of the gun rights grassroots to elected officials and new organizations could crop up to do the same.

Besides, the new lawsuit probably won’t kill off the NRA in six months’ time. And while it had already been suffering from internal strife, weak fundraising and staff layoffs, the easiest way for the NRA to rekindle its fundraising is to start 2021 with a Democratic president, Democratic Senate and Democratic gun control legislation.

And don’t be surprised if a Democratic presidential victory will spark a spike in gun sales, which is what happened in 2008 when Barack Obama won. Already this spring and summer, we’ve experienced the biggest gun sale surge in 10 years, in panicked reaction to the pandemic and the racial justice protests. Such frenzied buying is a reminder to politicians that the gun owner constituency remains present, intense and engaged.

Democrats have a tendency to rationalize why we can’t have nice things by villain-izing individuals and organizations. We can’t solve the climate crisis because of the Kochs. We can’t fix the economy because of Wall Street. And we can’t control guns because of the NRA. Such narratives have elements of truth but miss the bigger picture: To enact legislation in a republic, you need a broad coalition of support. Successful coalitions usually require some degree of bipartisanship to contain inevitable opposition from large groups of voters, not just small cabals of elites.

The political conundrum over gun control Democrats have long faced is that their proposals poll well yet face vehement and debilitating minority opposition. Since a dedicated gun rights voter is more likely to punish a politician than an intermittently engaged gun control supporter (whose interest in the subject often fades between public mass shootings), many politicians are not reassured by consistently pro-reform polling data and shy away from taking a tough vote.
...
The problem with not talking much about gun control during the campaign is that even if you win the presidency and the Congress, you haven’t built much of a mandate for action. Sometimes mandates don’t matter, and the majority party can still find the votes for its pet issues. But sometimes it matters a lot. Bill Clinton learned that the hard way on energy taxes and gays in the military. George W. Bush learned that the hard way on Social Security privatization. And Barack Obama learned that the hard way on gun control.
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At the time, some on the left complained that Obama did not demand enough, and didn’t push harder for restoring the now-expired assault weapons ban. But Obama reasonably concluded that he had to limit his ambitious to what could get 60 votes in the Senate, if he was to have any chance of getting it through the Republican-led House.
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In the 2020 presidential primary Joe Biden, referring to his role in passing the 1993 Brady Bill and the now-expired 1994 assault weapons ban, bragged, “I'm the only one on this stage who has taken on the NRA and beat them, and beat them twice.” What was different back then? Bill Clinton won the presidency with a bigger mandate to act on gun control, and there was significant bipartisan compromise to turn that mandate into law.
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(Joe) Biden is both a longtime gun control advocate and a consummate retail politician. If anyone can craft a set of compromise policies and related messages that can satisfy swing voters, contain gun rights opposition and prove red states can be flipped while actively supporting specific gun safety measures—be it universal background checks or bans on certain weapons—it’s Joe Biden.

In making that political calculation, Biden should not presume the NRA’s weakened state makes gun control legislation any easier to pass. If he wants to prioritize gun control in 2021, he will need to prioritize it in 2020, take the political risk and earn a real mandate. America’s cultural divide on guns remains. Only a savvy and skilled politician can cross it.

 

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Very few voters are single-issue voters. Many of those new gun owners may have gotten an education on gun control these past few months, but only some of them will change their votes because of it. I think more are likely to change their votes because of the riots, but not all of them.

 

If you're someone who wants the ability to own a gun to protect your children and needs food stamps to feed them, which way are you going to vote when there's no candidate who supports both options simultaneously?

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True. If I'm Trump right now, since he just signed the executive orders, I'd consider using that as ammunition to say that the Democrats didn't want to help and don't care enough to make a fair agreement to help people.

 

He did and has and will continue... before, during and after signing the EOs.

 

 

 

^ Mind blown!

 

I agree with Euler, people generally aren't single issue voters. From my own family's experience, I can tell you a good percentage of people that were scrambling to get a firearm these past few months were irritated with all the red tape but were still Democrats due to their prior social proofing: they KNOW Republicans are evil so they'll never vote Republican. The thing that's really turned a few is the non-stop rioting and outright lying about COVID-19. Guns, not so much. A gun is just a tool. It's the social proofing that has to be destroyed and blatant, persistent, obvious lying will do that.

 

Obama: "it is easier for a teenager to buy a Glock than get his hands on a computer, or even a book," -- Except in a pandemic when the police are undermined by (D) mayors/governors and riots/protests can show up even in the smallest of towns.

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