kwc Posted November 10, 2016 at 07:16 PM Share Posted November 10, 2016 at 07:16 PM You were incorrect as well! I most certainly was incorrect, and am very relieved my prediction was wrong! Nevertheless, I believe the outcome would have been different had the election been held at the time I said this (Oct 24).. The subsequent couple of weeks saw a significant shift and closing of the gap between the candidates. Many of the national polls within a day or two of the election showed only a couple of % points between the candidates in the popular vote. In the end many of the public polls weren't that far off. A 2-3% shift either way can make all the difference in the world in the electoral college vote, especially since several big states were within that range. If HRC would have been 1.5% higher in the popular vote, that would have been reflected in the electoral college count and we wouldn't be having this discussion today. 1.5% is within the margin of error. Nate Silver was very cautious in his forecasts as well, acknowledging that volatility in measuring data makes it extremely hard to be confident in the outcome. There isn't much difference between a "60-65% chance of winning" and a coin flip. This coin flip happened to favor the GOP. Admittedly I believed HRC was going to win, even as the votes started coming in, but by then I was convinced it would be pretty close. Fortunately I didn't bet any money on that prediction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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