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SUNY Professor: Trump Now Has 87% Chance of Winning – Tea Party Journal.com

1700715

By 1700715
in National Politics

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cls74 Member

cls74

Posted
Posted

.

I do hope things are tighter than the polls show, simply because keeping the Senate red is more important than which one gets to occupy the whitehouse for 4 years.

 

 

I would like to vote against hillary, but I'm unwilling to violate my convictions and principles enough to vote trump.

 

These are the only two comments of your post I wish to address.

 

The first comment I only reply with this:

 

You do realize that this presidential term will have way more than a 4 year impact? If you do not see the SCOTUS as the biggest player in this nation, not election I mean nation, then you should really research more on who truly decides the justs and unjusts of our rights and liberties. The constitution does not need to be rewritten or amended, it only has to be reinterpreted. 40 years of reinterpretation and reversals is not something I am willing to trade for a senate that the house can hold at bay for the most part.

 

 

 

To your second point, I simply say:

 

That is exactly why so many Democrats continue to win at every level of government. They vote down the party lines regardless of who it is or what they believe in. Democrats elect anything for the simple fact they are democrat.

 

Republicans allow the democrats to win because they just can't live with themselves if they vote beyond the candidate by voting for the candidate.

 

It's a sad day when this topic is being debated on a 2nd amemdment based site as it is the very thing that is most at stake.

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8x57 Member

8x57

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I see your points and can assure you that I've internally debated all of this. But the fact remains that Trump's life long history on the issues (in his own recorded words) is hardly any different than Hillary's. Your argument does nothing to address this. Why should I vote for trump when I'm sure he will give us pretty much the same constitution-shredding liberal trash for supreme Court nominees?

 

We're only having this argument on a 2nd Amendment site because Trump is literally that terrible of a nominee. Believe me - I've held my nose pretty hard and voted for some very questionable Republican candidates in the interest of keeping liberals out of power. Trump is just a bridge too far though. I would have been happy to support any of the 16 other primary candidates in the general.

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transplant Member

transplant

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1) McMullin is a sabetur. His only purpose is to divide the Republicans to provide a pathway for Hillary to win Utah

 

2) The user 8x57 is a low post count user

 

3) We know that Hillary's organization Correct the Record is sending out many, many people to create accounts and post 'concern trolling' content to discourage people from voting for Trump, her only realistic opposition

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cls74 Member

cls74

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The same reason everyone on this site should have voted for Rauner but just couldn't do it.

 

It is the same reasoning. With Quinn and Rauner you knew what you were getting woth Quinn, Rauner was the unknown and could not be worse. I don't think any of us are complaining about Rauner and the mistake voters made.

 

Same goes for the presidential election, Hillary is a known variable and has pretty much been in office the past 8 years. You think becoming prwsident will change her agenda and policies?

 

Trump is a virtual unknown when it comes to politics, he has put out a list of justices and has repeatedly stated issues that most here agree with.

 

So you don't care who is in office for the next 4 years as long as you do your part to maintain the senate. Vote Trump then, because your conscience is not going to change one of two that will become.

 

I realize being in IL voting red means nothing in the presidential election, Chicago and East St. Louis control that, but we go through the same thing in state elections when it can matter.

 

I voted Cruz in the primary and will vote Trump in the general.

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8x57 Member

8x57

Posted
Posted

1) McMullin is a sabetur. His only purpose is to divide the Republicans to provide a pathway for Hillary to win Utah

 

2) The user 8x57 is a low post count user

 

3) We know that Hillary's organization Correct the Record is sending out many, many people to create accounts and post 'concern trolling' content to discourage people from voting for Trump, her only realistic opposition

1. Actually, if you check their records, McMullin is far more aligned with our issue than Trump.

 

2. Check my post history. I've been here longer than you. I'm not even going to entertain such nonsense further than pointing that out.

 

3. We need to shun tinfoil hats and think rationally if we're ever going to win.

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3ddiver Member

3ddiver

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I see your points and can assure you that I've internally debated all of this. But the fact remains that Trump's life long history on the issues (in his own recorded words) is hardly any different than Hillary's. Your argument does nothing to address this. Why should I vote for trump when I'm sure he will give us pretty much the same constitution-shredding liberal trash for supreme Court nominees?

 

We're only having this argument on a 2nd Amendment site because Trump is literally that terrible of a nominee. Believe me - I've held my nose pretty hard and voted for some very questionable Republican candidates in the interest of keeping liberals out of power. Trump is just a bridge too far though. I would have been happy to support any of the 16 other primary candidates in the general.

Enjoy a Hillary Clinton presidency then. Maybe we can stop her and maybe not.

 

Hillary Clinton has a track record that you can judge her by, actual votes and official policy positions. I have to take Donald Trump at his word when he says he supports the 2A especially when he has the backing of the NRA. He has never held elected office so we have nothing official to judge him by. Will he flop? I don't know, but Hillary has said she favors Australian style confiscation and that is unacceptable to me.

 

Donald Trump has put forth the names of justices he said he would nominate for the Supreme Court. They are constitutionalists. Hillary Clinton has said they need experience with gay rights and know how the world works and she will not put any names forward. Easy choice for me.

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cls74 Member

cls74

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There is one vacancy on the SCOTUS right now, if Trump is elected that vacancy will be filled by February. 3 months from now.

 

He would risk everything by not appointing someone from his list to fill it. I'll risk the next 4 years of the House holding him at bay("if" we end up losing the senate) for that first pick to SCOTUS.

 

It is that important to me.

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GTX63 Member

GTX63

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You pass by a playground where two adults are screaming and violently fighting with knives surrounded by children. One is a known and proven liar, thief and killer and the other has also been suspected of low and immoral character. They each are shouting at you to shoot the other, claiming the other will, if allowed, certainly harm the children. You have one bullet in your gun. Because you are unwilling to choose one over the other you fire your only shot into the air in hopes that some good will come of it. With a clear conscious you blow the smoke from the barrel, holster your pistol and continue walking along. Can't pin that mess on you, and besides, you didn't know any of those kids anyway.

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BobPistol Member

BobPistol

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Turnout wins this election. And how do you keep Trump voters at home? Why, you tell them he can't win!

 

TURNOUT.

 

And the propaganda media is right on time with their stories designed to suppress turnout.

 

Fearing Election Day trouble, some US schools cancel classes

 

https://www.mail.com/news/politics/4699914-fearing-election-day-trouble-us-schools-cancel-cla.html#.7518-stage-hero1-3

 

Please don't turn out to vote for Trump, says the media, or kids will get hurt by leftist violence.

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Bitter Clinger Member

Bitter Clinger

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Her lead in New Hampshire is dwindling as well. Hopefully she continues to focus on the down ballots.

 

Trump just needs to last another 13 days without blundering. Still not certain that can/will happen lol.

I think the Hillary campaign will drop one more manufactured "Trump Scandal" lie one to three days before the election in an effort to suppress votes for him. Watch for it.

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BobPistol Member

BobPistol

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Scott Adams has chimed in again

 

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152293480726/the-bully-party

 

The Bully Party

I’ve been trying to figure out what common trait binds Clinton supporters together. As far as I can tell, the most unifying characteristic is a willingness to bully in all its forms.

 

Yesterday, by no coincidence, Huffington Post, Salon, and Daily Kos all published similar-sounding hit pieces on me, presumably to lower my influence. (That reason, plus jealousy, are the only reasons writers write about other writers.)

 

I endorse Donald Trump for President of the United States because I oppose bullying in all its forms.

 

Today I put Trump’s odds of winning in a landslide back to 98%. Remember, I told you a few weeks ago that Trump couldn’t win unless “something changed.”

Something just changed.

 

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kwc Member

kwc

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Trump Halloween masks are outselling Clinton masks by 7-10%.

 

Well, there's that...

 

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/10/who-should-you-believe-professional-pollsters-or-halloween-masks

 

In a poll taken tonight at our home, out of ~60 little critters asking for candy, one wore a Trump mask and none wore a Clinton mask. Hmmm.

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chislinger Member

chislinger

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Polls now have Trump surging ahead in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada while increasing his lead in Georgia and Ohio. Hillary's numbers are tanking in Colorado and Pennsylvania, she's up there by +1 and +2 respectively.

 

Hillary is in full meltdown mode, she unleashed a twitterstorm today and in one of them even tacitly admitted she was corrupt. Huma has been thrown under the bus, no longer travelling with Hillary and holed up in her home with her lawyers.

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markthesignguy Member

markthesignguy

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They have to, otherwise their business is dead.

they have proven that either:

1. they don't know what they are doing, and have severely undermined proven statistical science
or
2. they do know what they are doing, and proven they can be bought to manipulate results.

either way, nobody will believe them. No, not the guys who pay their fees,
but rather, more disastrously, their target audience: great unwashed who will no longer be swayed by them.

 

credibility = 0,

 

I personally treat them as "opposite land", where down is up and truth is the reverse of their proclamations.

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kwc Member

kwc

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I personally treat them as "opposite land", where down is up and truth is the reverse of their proclamations.

 

Well, then, according to that logic, now that many polls show Trump climbing (and getting close to the margin of error), this must be really good news for Clinton.

 

I throw out the extremes, go for center of mass, look for where it is moving, and read what Nate Silver has to say.

 

Nate has claimed for a long time that this race is volatile. He's not betting the farm on anyone, even though he believes Trump was and still is behind (most significantly in the electoral college).

 

The FBI announcement last week hasn't fully been felt yet in the polls. We should know the impact by Thu.

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DoverGunner Member

DoverGunner

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Trump Halloween masks are outselling Clinton masks by 7-10%.

 

Well, there's that...

 

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/10/who-should-you-believe-professional-pollsters-or-halloween-masks

In a poll taken tonight at our home, out of ~60 little critters asking for candy, one wore a Trump mask and none wore a Clinton mask. Hmmm.

 

You and I live in the same Hamlet

Wife said somewhere between 50-60 Critters came to the house 4 had Trump masks and one Hillary mask . However the Hillary mask was for Hillary for Prison 2016

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BobPistol Member

BobPistol

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Will wikileaks follow through this week?

 

Been hearing reports they are set to release more emails before he weekend with a "bombshell" possible tomorrow.

 

"Promises promises, I knew you'd never keep" says the song.

 

Wikileaks is on Hillary's side. Should have released these bombshells long ago.

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