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Does Ives have a chance against Rauner, or against the Dems?


vito

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Not much doubt about where Ives stands on 2nd Amendment issues, but I have no idea of her chances to beat Rauner in the primary. And if she does, what is the chance that she could beat whatever anti-gun Dem gets their nomination for Governor? I think both Pritzker and Kennedy would be a disaster for Illinois, but I don't get to make the decision. I have little faith in the intelligence of Illinois voters since they are the ones that keep Madigan and company in power all of these years.

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I have little faith in the intelligence of Illinois voters since they are the ones that keep Madigan and company in power all of these years.

It's only one section of Illinois that keeps voting Madigan in, fwiw. In fact, it's only the people in a 5 mile area around Midway Airport, a mere 20,000 people.

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/the-illinoisans-who-vote-for-madigan/

 

And, of course he uses typical "Chicago" style politics to keep in office.

 

Now, it's the people that vote for the 60 Dems that make him speaker of the house that need to hae their heads thumped.

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She has zero chance in a general election. She has a small chance in the primary. If she won the primary, we would be giving up our gun rights because JB, the likely winner of the Democratic primary would beat her so badly that the statewide Republican organization would be in shambles.

 

True conservatives cannot win a statewide office in Illinois. When was the last time one did?

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"...the statewide Republican organization would be in shambles."

 

Yeah, they've done such a bang up job of opposing the weasels so far, right?

 

The formal Illinois GOP organization has proven itself time and again to be little more than a meat puppet for the Democrats that run the state.

 

Like Kevin Bacon in Animal House, "Thank you sir may I have another!" seems to be their motto.

 

They can't even get candidates to run in many districts and they let a freakin' Neo Nazi get on the ballot.

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WIth the continual ads on TV regarding JB's relationship to Blago, is he the guy we really need to worry about?

Kennedy has been pushing his property tax reform pledge, and related reformed school funding plan pretty hard. I can see this resonating if JB gets pushed aside.

 

You have to remember they will say anything to get elected. If things get much worst in this state I can put my house up for sale and take my 5th wheel and move anywhere I want

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If Democrats run a ham sandwich against Rauner in the general, we will have a ham sandwich for governor.

 

I will vote for Ives in the primary. If Rauner gets the nomination, I will vote for a third party candidate in the general. You'll be wasting your breath trying to convince me otherwise. Rauner is not a mini Trump. I will not vote for someone who signs a bill to use tax money to murder babies. End of story.

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If Democrats run a ham sandwich against Rauner in the general, we will have a ham sandwich for governor.

 

I will vote for Ives in the primary. If Rauner gets the nomination, I will vote for a third party candidate in the general. You'll be wasting your breath trying to convince me otherwise. Rauner is not a mini Trump. I will not vote for someone who signs a bill to use tax money to murder babies. End of story.

If Democrats run a ham sandwich against Rauner in the general, we will have a ham sandwich for governor.

 

I will vote for Ives in the primary. If Rauner gets the nomination, I will vote for a third party candidate in the general. You'll be wasting your breath trying to convince me otherwise. Rauner is not a mini Trump. I will not vote for someone who signs a bill to use tax money to murder babies. End of story.

this
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If Democrats run a ham sandwich against Rauner in the general, we will have a ham sandwich for governor.

 

I will vote for Ives in the primary. If Rauner gets the nomination, I will vote for a third party candidate in the general. You'll be wasting your breath trying to convince me otherwise. Rauner is not a mini Trump. I will not vote for someone who signs a bill to use tax money to murder babies. End of story.

If Democrats run a ham sandwich against Rauner in the general, we will have a ham sandwich for governor.

 

I will vote for Ives in the primary. If Rauner gets the nomination, I will vote for a third party candidate in the general. You'll be wasting your breath trying to convince me otherwise. Rauner is not a mini Trump. I will not vote for someone who signs a bill to use tax money to murder babies. End of story.

this

 

 

yup

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If Democrats run a ham sandwich against Rauner in the general, we will have a ham sandwich for governor.

 

I will vote for Ives in the primary. If Rauner gets the nomination, I will vote for a third party candidate in the general. You'll be wasting your breath trying to convince me otherwise. Rauner is not a mini Trump. I will not vote for someone who signs a bill to use tax money to murder babies. End of story.

Yup. Ives in the primary and if she doesn't prevail...scorched earth all the way.

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I have not seen any polling data for the R primary. Latest D polling data indicates Pritzker losing ground (39% to 30%), Biss gaining (6% to 17%) and Kennedy holding steady (15% to 12%). (Real Clear Politics)

As far as Ives' chances in the primary - maybe 33% to 40% of the vote (Rauner 67% to 60%) based on talking to conservative types..there seem to be enough conservative types that do not like Rauner that will vote for Ives but not enough. Depends who she is up against in the general election. Ives v Pritzker goes to Pritzker, Ives v Kennedy or Biss...who knows. If Rauner takes out Pritzker with the Blago ads and it is Rauner v Kennedy or Biss then Rauner may have a chance. Rauner v Pritzker goes to Pritzker. Rauner's 2A record leans left with his signing of laws strengthening sentences on various illegal gun purchase legislation if I recall. I cannot recall a critical veto of something like the dealer licensing bill or an AR-15 ban. Having an R Governor coupled with a D General Assembly is about the best we can hope for.

 

Decided to add some stuff.

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WIth the continual ads on TV regarding JB's relationship to Blago, is he the guy we really need to worry about?

 

Yes. Blago was under sealed inditement when he beat JBT in his last run for Governor. Every media outlet in the state had seen these "secret documents" as had many political insiders. Everyone, including his father-in-law knew exactly what he was, but, the public did not. He also had eight times the campaign funds as JBT. He still won.

 

Every media outlet knows how deep JB has been in Illinois politics as do many political insiders. Many of the Chicago voters don't care and expect people running for and occupying office to be dirty and corrupt. Many Chicago folk take pride in how corrupt their politicians and the political process in Chicago is. They brag about it, "Vote early and vote often". He wastes more money than Kennedy has. No other Democratic candidate has any real money or endorsements. It would take something extraordinary for him to lose the primary.

 

The one think I have heard is that many, many Republicans are going to vote Democratic in the primary and vote for Kennedy. I'm not sure how much that will help.

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Ives in the primary. I'm sure the Dems are looking at having a bunch of supporters vote for Ives too. That would be smart. They lost to Rauner once. If a Dem gets elected, then the 2A gets more expensive - everything anti-2A will have to be litigated.

 

hows that any different than it's been

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If Democrats run a ham sandwich against Rauner in the general, we will have a ham sandwich for governor.

 

I will vote for Ives in the primary. If Rauner gets the nomination, I will vote for a third party candidate in the general. You'll be wasting your breath trying to convince me otherwise. Rauner is not a mini Trump. I will not vote for someone who signs a bill to use tax money to murder babies. End of story.

 

And this is why Pritzker will walk away with the election, and we will lose even more of our rights... :(

 

I can never understand why people will cut off their own nose to spite their face...

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With the exception of Ives it's all baby killers. It sucks, but throwing up my hands and not playing the game is going to screw me worse than not protesting a vote that compromises my moral compass.

Fact is most of northern Illinois is going to stick us with a baby killer either way. At least we can have a say in the least dangerous baby killer to manage the rest of our pet issues.

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